Name That Caucus!

The monikers are flying fast and furiously to label the 20 recalcitrants blocking the the election of a Speaker and moving the GOP agenda in the US House. And they may win.

Last night, the first night of the new 118th Congress, there was to have been a vote.

Not a third or fourth roll call for the election of a Speaker. It was a promise by the House Republican Conference, through putative Speaker Kevin McCarthy and their “Commitment to America,” to vote on “Day One” to repeal an appropriation to fund the hiring of 87,000 new IRS agents over the next five years.

That vote did not happen. Those 87,000 new IRS agents are still scheduled to be hired and come after you and your money.

US Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-WI), the estimable chair of a new Select Committee on China’s growing threat to the US and world peace, was to have begun hiring staff and planning hearings.

US Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH), the former collegiate champion wrestler and coach, was to have begun hiring staff and planning investigations and oversight hearings into all manner of chicanery by the Department of Justice and Federal Bureau of Investigation. Same with US Rep. James Comer (R-KY), the putative new chair of the House Oversight and Reform Committee.

Never mind the investigations into the tragedy of our southern border, and the hundreds of thousands of Americans poisoned or killed by illegal fentanyl from Mexico.

None of that is underway. That’s because less than 10 percent of the House membership, about 20 members of the 54-member House Freedom Caucus, refused to vote for their conference’s nominee for Speaker, Kevin McCarthy (R-CA). This despite getting almost everything they wanted in a grand deal for their support.

Fact: Most of the House Freedom Caucus of the GOP’s most conservative members support McCarthy. At least, so far.

Let me also get this out of the way. I know or have met many of these members. I like and respect them. They’re patriots. But even the best among us are sometimes wrong. Sometimes bigly.

And what do the 20 members of the Chaos Caucus want? It’s not entirely clear, but we know this: End proxy voting (duh, that was always a GOP policy). A rule requiring 72-hour filing of bills before a House vote (good!). Another rule requiring “single subject” legislation (good!). And another provision McCarthy caved on - giving five members the power to offer a privileged motion to “vacate the chair,” a vote to remove the Speaker of the House. Some reports suggest he caved all the way to one member, but that’s not confirmed. Pelosi and the Democrats, who controlled the 117th Congress, removed the provision. Not good enough, apparently.

Normal legislators would have quickly declared victory and moved on. But, no, not twenty members of the House Freedom Caucus, chaired by US Rep. Scott Perry (R-PA).

Pennsylvania-based Journalist Salena Zito writes how a few of Perry’s central Pennsylvania GOP supporters feel about this stalemate.

A 49-year-old suburban mother who was getting ready to take her teenage boys to after-school sports said she has voted for Perry every time he has run. "I am a longtime Republican — like a longtime Republican — probably one of the people who bailed his behind out every time he has had a close election,” she said.

Now, she is on a group text with friends about getting someone to run against him. “We are all like, 'Screw him. Let's primary him,'” she said.

A Dauphin County small businessman agreed with her. “He's done nothing but really focus on far-right issues that have little to do with the district, and it's almost like the guy who ran as a Washington outsider has become the ultimate Washington insider,” he said.

“What he has done has been an embarrassment — just an embarrassment. There are so many important reasons why we sent him to Congress — work on the border crisis, the inflation — none of this gets done because of him. I am deeply disappointed,” he said.

In Cumberland County just outside Carlisle, one rural Republican voter who, along with dozens of others, asked permission that his name not be used to speak freely and candidly said that when Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) spoke yesterday, he thought he made some good points, “however, the larger point is that we now need a speaker installed. And right now, it's time for all of the Republicans to come together on a single candidate, and it's obviously McCarthy. This burn-it-all-down approach is actually going to hurt more than it's helping.”

The father of a high school senior and married college graduate and staunch Republican said, “Honestly, the far-right group is no different than the 'Squad' on the Left; they're using the same tactics that the Squad has done over the last couple of years, and the Squad has accomplished nothing.”

Some of the “Taliban 20,” a term coined by Nebraska Republican Rep. Don Bacon, moved the goalposts. As Hugh Hewitt reported yesterday morning on his radio show, they began demanding specific committee memberships and subcommittee chairmanships after getting 80-100 percent of their policy demands. They also added a few more policy demands (promises for votes on specific budget and spending bills, including higher vote thresholds for earmarks, a border bill, etc., items a Democratic Senate will never take up). Some of these demands violate norms and long established procedures, including seniority and how committees are chosen.

Those negotiating tactics are enough to make Josef Stalin blush. Since the House can’t organize or even administer oaths to Members until the election of Speaker, even paychecks are on hold. Fortunately for them, the first check won’t be due until the end of the month.

So the vote-a-rama continues with nobody budging as of yesterday. Not Democrats and their 212 votes for Democratic election-denier Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY). Not the 201-2 supporters of Kevin McCarthy. Not the 20 members of the Knucklehead Caucus or the one person, Indiana’s Ukrainian-born Victoria Spartz, voting “present” in apparent frustration over the mess.

Make no mistake. Democrats are enjoying this mockworthy event as GOP prospects for 2024 continue to bleed away (there’s plenty of time to fix it, but the longer this lasts, the more difficult the recovery). Not exactly the best way to “make history,” which the House has now done. The last time it took more than one vote was in 1923. That took nine. When parties disintegrated just before the Civil War, it took two months and 133 votes for Nathanial Banks of Massachusetts to assume the Speakership for one Congress. It took a motion to reduce the threshold to a plurality vote, but that won’t work here - it would elect Democrat Hakeem Jeffries as Speaker, who has led every vote count thus far (212).

Thoughtful graybeards in the GOP are frustrated and angry. Former Speaker Newt Gingrich:

In a normal, healthy political party, you would think that a 10:1 margin would be definitive.

However, for the 20 deranged disrupters causing pain to their own party, the chaos seems to be an enjoyable hobby. It is a little like watching someone burn down their own home so they can enjoy the fire. You wonder if any of these intransigent members have answered – or even thought about – the question: “And then what?”

Meanwhile, Democrat House Minority Leader Hakim Jeffries, and his extraordinarily effective predecessor, Nancy Pelosi, are happily watching Republicans melt down in front of the entire country like a group of tired toddlers (this will undoubtedly be the most watched speaker election in history).

While the House Republicans seem to be absorbed in infighting, the Senate Republicans seem to be increasingly split between a traditional Republican majority and a Biden-Republican minority. The key bills (which about one–fifth to one–third of Senate Republicans have partnered with Democrats to pass) have been especially painful. The conservative movement and the majority of Republican voters, activists and donors opposed those bills. The reality of the Biden-Republican Senate wing will be obvious as Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and President Joe Biden meet in Kentucky to celebrate the $1.63 billion bridge across the Ohio River which was contained in the nearly $1 trillion infrastructure bill.

Nothing irritates and angers conservatives and traditional Republicans more than watching their elected officials join a bipartisan media event to celebrate taking tens of billions of dollars from taxpayers to spend on politically directed infrastructure.

Hewitt, to his credit, asked listeners who supported “the 20” to call in and explain why. Almost every caller based their support on general animosity towards “the establishment” Republican class (whoever that is) and tried to segue to Senate GOP leader Mitch McConnell. They falsely blamed McCarthy for not doing more to oppose McConnell’s support for the $1.7 trillion omnibus spending bill before Christmas, which McCarthy strongly opposed.

The fact is, Senate Republicans saw the turmoil and chaos on the House GOP team and decided to take care of business, no matter how expensive. As the last couple of days has proven, they weren’t wrong.

The question on everyone’s mind is, how does this get resolved?

There is no easy or obvious answer, although we may have it very soon - perhaps by the time you read this. Here are the options and why they probably won’t work. But I do have a scenario of how this is likely to end.

Scenario One: McCarthy drops out for another candidate.

That’s the one the media and a few untrained observers are focused on. I get that. This seems personal, and there’s precedent - McCarthy stepped aside for US Rep. and Ways and Means Committee Chair Paul Ryan in 2015 after Speaker John Boehner threw up his hands and departed. Ryan, equally frustrated, announced his retirement in 2018 as Democrats, led by Nancy Pelosi, won control in elections that year.

That worked well.

The problem with this scenario is that at least fifty members comprise the “OK” - Only Kevin - Caucus. Those are House members who will only support Kevin McCarthy for Speaker. Not Whip Steve Scalise (LA). Not Republican Conference Chair Elise Stefanik (NY). Not putative House Rules Committee chair (and friend) Tom Cole (OK). Not former Freedom Caucus founding chair and putative Judiciary Chairman Jim Jordan (OH). Not Republican Study Committee chair Jim Banks (IN). And none of them are angling for the job. None. All of them support McCarthy.

Comedy: former Rep. Justin Amash (R/L-MI), who infamously switched parties to Libertarian before he retired from the US House two years ago, was apparently seen hanging around the rear of the House chamber (in the Speaker’s Lobby) lobbying for the job as a “unity” candidate. That’s funny! Leaving office doesn’t necessarily shrink one’s ego, it seems.

Former US Rep. and aspiring Speaker, Justin Amash (R/I-MI)

Yes, it’s true. One does not have to be an elected Member of the House to be Speaker. They can elect any citizen who qualifies as a member of the House (25 years of age, US citizen, etc.), ideally, someone qualified to be President since the job is second-in-line behind the Vice President. Some have suggested Donald Trump. Not happening. While the thought of a “unity Speaker” may be appealing, no one who closely fits the bill and who can do the job, or wants it, comes to mind. Not in this political environment.

If the Chaos Caucus were serious, they would have had a credible and widely acceptable alternative in the wings. Scrambling for one now doesn’t work.

I don’t see this happening.

Scenario Two: “Moderate” Republicans cut a deal with Democrats

Some Democratic members are floating this prospect to increase their power in a new Congress. They are willing to exchange a vote for an “independent” or “unity” speaker for a handful of committee chairmanships (which ones, I wonder?) and favorable committee ratios (and, no doubt, resources).

Thus far, there do not seem to be any Republicans taking the bait. The “moderate” wing in the House is tiny, indeed, especially since now J6 Committee members Adam Kinzinger (R-IL) and Liz Cheney (R-WY) are gone. Maybe some of the new House members from New York qualify, or maybe my friend and GOP moderate Tom Kean Jr. (R-NJ), but again, all support McCarthy.

Non-starter.

Scenario Three: McCarthy and the Chaos Caucus Find a Deal

This is the most plausible scenario, but how it happens is critical. And it may already be in process.

Worth paying attention to are the fundraising and polling communities. Rep. Matt Gaetz, nominal chair of the anyone-but-McCarthy wing of the House GOP, is actively raising money for himself from this chaotic debacle. Given the power of money in politics, major bundlers and funders have a say, and no doubt they’re weighing in privately and loudly right now. I’m not among them, so I’ll leave it to journalists to squeeze a few words out of them.

A few of them might be making pledges to recruit and fund challenges to the 20 renegades. Some PACs may be gearing up and being created to do that. But reports are that calls and emails are coming into GOP House offices heavily against the twenty recalcitrants. This is not what they voted for.

Suppose that pressure takes hold - in addition to public opinion surveys that confirm it (there will be a few that suggest otherwise but read them carefully for questionnaire bias, especially from outfits like the Trafalgar Group). In that case, one side will be looking for a way out.

And McCarthy will be in a position to give them an out - support for a key committee memberships and/or subcommittee chair. Conversely, reports suggest that one or two House Freedom Caucus members are wavering in their support for McCarthy, including Rep. Ken Buck (R-CO). Regardless, they will all claim victory and move on with the people’s business. This appears to be in the works, as of this writing. Olivia Beavers is a reporter for Politico.com who tweeted this late last night.

Then the healing, the investigations, the hearings, and the legislating may begin.

Memories and grudges last a long time in this business, and the 2024 congressional primaries will be very interesting. I don’t see McCarthy punishing the renegades once a deal is forged - he’ll want to move on, needing every vote with a four-seat majority. He’ll eventually promise not to engage in primaries, but he won’t need to. I can name a few PACS and political organizations that will take care of that.

However, if this drags on, follow the money and the polls. Of course, regime media isn’t going to help here - they love the chaos, as do their Democratic overlords. But GOP leaders like Gingrich and others are stepping up in conservative media, but they’re hardly all in McCarthy’s camp. Conservative broadcasters Erick Erickson and Chris Stigall are firmly against McCarthy. But rank-and-file GOP voters - most, anyway - are neither stupid nor lemmings. This is also one case where Donald Trump and most GOP leaders are on the same side.

This Civil War isn’t going away, even when the truce is inevitably signed. I can’t promise where - or in whom - the hatches will be buried. It is also possible that the Spartacus Caucus won’t care about or see the political fallout and will take their chances anyway. But Democrats definitely appreciate the distraction from theirs.

Meanwhile, let’s have some fun. How will history refer to this caucus of 20? Weigh in with your favorite! If you like and support them, pick one of the last two, or add your own in the comments.