The three-week dysfunction junction that was the House of Representatives wasn't all the Republican's fault. The "Problem Solvers" Caucus could have prevented it, but they're a joke.
Short term, the DNC media always win. Again, if we get a turn for the better on the budget out of all this, those polls will flip, dramatically. Now. that's a big if, and I make no predictions. (Predicting the future is a lot trickier than predicting the past, as any stock trader knows...!) So, it's a gamble, but making progress usually requires that. When you get losing hand after losing hand, a gamble outside the norm is justified, instead of continuing the guaranteed losses.
We'll see how it plays out. PS -- I was thinking of 95-96. And you're right, no amount of explaining changed the false narrative. But times have changed. Back then people generally did not despise government as a strong consensus does now; there is a prevailing sense that something has to give.
Well, I won't disagree that McCarthy gave the Gaetz crowd almost everything they said they wanted, and they should have grabbed it and declared victory. Nor was McCarthy wrong to respond with a CR while they worked out a different agreement if he wanted to avoid a "shutdown"; at that point he had no choice.
In the longer run, though, our dysfunctional budget process had to be reformed. This might be the catalyst, and if so, it was all to the good. Too soon to know.
The whole fear of a "shutdown", however, is manufactured panic mode. It means 87% of government still continues, including transfer payments. Only "non-essential" employees are sent home, but they will still collect back pay when they return. Is there any other business that operates like that? And if they're not essential why should they return? If it were up to me, I'd risk that sort of "shutdown". The pattern of always blaming Republicans, regardless of whether they're in the executive or legislative branch, has to be broken -- and this would have been an ideal opportunity to educate voters on the unsustainability of a budget process that extends our current spending spiral.
I'm still not convinced the Rs lost support over this, and they may have gained. People on all sides of politics are deeply unhappy with government and both parties. Business as usual is a vote killer. Here was a contrary move. Again, if that results in a budget of specific appropriations, as opposed to an omnibus passed without anyone reading it, it will be a net plus.
Btw -- my views on this budget process are not formed by any "spin" from any crowd -- these thoughts are consistent with (though on specifics not identical to) my views ever since the Clinton years. Nor am I blind to contrary views, like yours. On balance, here is where I come down. And the specifics may change with time and circumstance. If this proves to be a disaster for the country, I will admit I was wrong.
You're right about the reality of government shutdowns, which always wind up costing more than keeping the doors open. On that score, my concerns are purely political, which always boomerang on Republicans. Every. Single. Time. No amount of explaning (which I helped do a government official in 1995-96) ever works, even more so in today's environment. And I'm sorry to inform you that the R's clearly lost ground through the three-week debacle, and I'll to post here an analysis from my friend and GOP pollster/strategist David Winston that confirms it. The good news is that the GOP can recover.
The House of Representatives finally has a new Speaker, and Republicans are ready to start afresh with one year to go until the election. The past month of chaos has done some damage to Republicans. As they move forward, here are three things they should know.
1.) Hit to the Congressional GOP brand image: Republicans have taken a hit on their brand image over the past month. From our latest work for Winning the Issues (October 18-19), the brand images of Congressional Republicans (40-55 favorable-unfavorable) and Democrats (41-55) were about the same level in September, but the brand image of Republicans has dropped to 34-60, with Democrats’ brand staying about the same (41-53). For Republicans, this is the worst brand image since June 2018 when they were headed for losing the majority later that year.
2.) Slippage on economic issue handling. Republicans have leads on economic issues but as we saw with the brand image taking a hit, there has been some slippage on issue handling. On inflation, the Republican lead has gone from +15 in September to +12. The lead on the economy has gone from +14 to +10. These are still double digit leads but smaller than the previous month.
3.) Challenges with independents. Republicans’ standing among independents remains one of the biggest challenges they face. In the last election, the Republican underperformance with independents was responsible for the lack of a Red Wave, losing
independents by 2, and winning only 222 seats. This happened despite a remarkable party ID advantage (+3 R), indicating base turnout is not enough for the scale
of a win they anticipated. Currently, both parties struggle with brand
image among independents, 23-68 (favorable-unfavorable) for
Congressional Republicans, 29-61 for Congressional Democrats.
However Republicans retain an edge on economic issues among
independents (46-30 on economy issue handling, 46-26 on inflation.)
The sooner they can get back to focusing on economic issues, the better.
While it's too early to predict how successful Mr Johnson will be, it's certainly false to assert that this episode has been a disaster for the country or the Republican party.
The notion that the wrangling over the speakership proved the Rs "unable to govern" is absurd. Does passing CRs and Christmas Eve omnibus bills year after year constitute governing? Who needs that sort of "government"? It was long overdue to ditch that avoidance of responsibility.
Both parties in Congress prefer to avoid making decisions. That's not leadership, and indeed, they are collecting their salaries on false pretenses. It had to change. Maybe this will be the impetus, the wake up call, the shot across the bow that says "No more". We owe Mr Gaetz a debt of gratitude regardless of his motives. It would be healthy if he were to get a primary challenge, to find out where the voters really stand.
Contrary to prevailing wisdom, American voters might appreciate the end of the corrupt business as usual, and reward the Rs with a resounding victory next year. This will be especially true if Congress now manages to pass a budget that is not merely a continuation of what we have. Of course, that's betting on the Senate not to be obstructionist ....
That's the spin from the Gaetz crowd, and it misinforms badly. A deeply forensic look into the whole budget and appropriations process showed that 1) the Gaetz crowd opposed practically every appropriations (and a major defense authorization) bill that include substantial spending cuts. 2) This causes McCarthy to seek a short term CR to avoid what anyone with any knowledge of history would understand to be politically disadvantageous "shutdown." It's one thing to oppose bills that aren't perfect "enough." It's quite another to use that opposition to decapitate the leader of your conference and the US House for three weeks to settle a personal vendetta.
As for me, I'm looking forward to the Ethics Committee's report on Gaetz. I bet it will be a dandy.
Short term, the DNC media always win. Again, if we get a turn for the better on the budget out of all this, those polls will flip, dramatically. Now. that's a big if, and I make no predictions. (Predicting the future is a lot trickier than predicting the past, as any stock trader knows...!) So, it's a gamble, but making progress usually requires that. When you get losing hand after losing hand, a gamble outside the norm is justified, instead of continuing the guaranteed losses.
We'll see how it plays out. PS -- I was thinking of 95-96. And you're right, no amount of explaining changed the false narrative. But times have changed. Back then people generally did not despise government as a strong consensus does now; there is a prevailing sense that something has to give.
Well, I won't disagree that McCarthy gave the Gaetz crowd almost everything they said they wanted, and they should have grabbed it and declared victory. Nor was McCarthy wrong to respond with a CR while they worked out a different agreement if he wanted to avoid a "shutdown"; at that point he had no choice.
In the longer run, though, our dysfunctional budget process had to be reformed. This might be the catalyst, and if so, it was all to the good. Too soon to know.
The whole fear of a "shutdown", however, is manufactured panic mode. It means 87% of government still continues, including transfer payments. Only "non-essential" employees are sent home, but they will still collect back pay when they return. Is there any other business that operates like that? And if they're not essential why should they return? If it were up to me, I'd risk that sort of "shutdown". The pattern of always blaming Republicans, regardless of whether they're in the executive or legislative branch, has to be broken -- and this would have been an ideal opportunity to educate voters on the unsustainability of a budget process that extends our current spending spiral.
I'm still not convinced the Rs lost support over this, and they may have gained. People on all sides of politics are deeply unhappy with government and both parties. Business as usual is a vote killer. Here was a contrary move. Again, if that results in a budget of specific appropriations, as opposed to an omnibus passed without anyone reading it, it will be a net plus.
Btw -- my views on this budget process are not formed by any "spin" from any crowd -- these thoughts are consistent with (though on specifics not identical to) my views ever since the Clinton years. Nor am I blind to contrary views, like yours. On balance, here is where I come down. And the specifics may change with time and circumstance. If this proves to be a disaster for the country, I will admit I was wrong.
You're right about the reality of government shutdowns, which always wind up costing more than keeping the doors open. On that score, my concerns are purely political, which always boomerang on Republicans. Every. Single. Time. No amount of explaning (which I helped do a government official in 1995-96) ever works, even more so in today's environment. And I'm sorry to inform you that the R's clearly lost ground through the three-week debacle, and I'll to post here an analysis from my friend and GOP pollster/strategist David Winston that confirms it. The good news is that the GOP can recover.
From David Winston:
Three Things House Republicans Should Know
The House of Representatives finally has a new Speaker, and Republicans are ready to start afresh with one year to go until the election. The past month of chaos has done some damage to Republicans. As they move forward, here are three things they should know.
1.) Hit to the Congressional GOP brand image: Republicans have taken a hit on their brand image over the past month. From our latest work for Winning the Issues (October 18-19), the brand images of Congressional Republicans (40-55 favorable-unfavorable) and Democrats (41-55) were about the same level in September, but the brand image of Republicans has dropped to 34-60, with Democrats’ brand staying about the same (41-53). For Republicans, this is the worst brand image since June 2018 when they were headed for losing the majority later that year.
2.) Slippage on economic issue handling. Republicans have leads on economic issues but as we saw with the brand image taking a hit, there has been some slippage on issue handling. On inflation, the Republican lead has gone from +15 in September to +12. The lead on the economy has gone from +14 to +10. These are still double digit leads but smaller than the previous month.
3.) Challenges with independents. Republicans’ standing among independents remains one of the biggest challenges they face. In the last election, the Republican underperformance with independents was responsible for the lack of a Red Wave, losing
independents by 2, and winning only 222 seats. This happened despite a remarkable party ID advantage (+3 R), indicating base turnout is not enough for the scale
of a win they anticipated. Currently, both parties struggle with brand
image among independents, 23-68 (favorable-unfavorable) for
Congressional Republicans, 29-61 for Congressional Democrats.
However Republicans retain an edge on economic issues among
independents (46-30 on economy issue handling, 46-26 on inflation.)
The sooner they can get back to focusing on economic issues, the better.
While it's too early to predict how successful Mr Johnson will be, it's certainly false to assert that this episode has been a disaster for the country or the Republican party.
The notion that the wrangling over the speakership proved the Rs "unable to govern" is absurd. Does passing CRs and Christmas Eve omnibus bills year after year constitute governing? Who needs that sort of "government"? It was long overdue to ditch that avoidance of responsibility.
Both parties in Congress prefer to avoid making decisions. That's not leadership, and indeed, they are collecting their salaries on false pretenses. It had to change. Maybe this will be the impetus, the wake up call, the shot across the bow that says "No more". We owe Mr Gaetz a debt of gratitude regardless of his motives. It would be healthy if he were to get a primary challenge, to find out where the voters really stand.
Contrary to prevailing wisdom, American voters might appreciate the end of the corrupt business as usual, and reward the Rs with a resounding victory next year. This will be especially true if Congress now manages to pass a budget that is not merely a continuation of what we have. Of course, that's betting on the Senate not to be obstructionist ....
That's the spin from the Gaetz crowd, and it misinforms badly. A deeply forensic look into the whole budget and appropriations process showed that 1) the Gaetz crowd opposed practically every appropriations (and a major defense authorization) bill that include substantial spending cuts. 2) This causes McCarthy to seek a short term CR to avoid what anyone with any knowledge of history would understand to be politically disadvantageous "shutdown." It's one thing to oppose bills that aren't perfect "enough." It's quite another to use that opposition to decapitate the leader of your conference and the US House for three weeks to settle a personal vendetta.
As for me, I'm looking forward to the Ethics Committee's report on Gaetz. I bet it will be a dandy.