The GOP presidential nomination contest is quickly collapsing around three candidates. Can either challenger defeat Trump in Iowa and/or New Hampshire? A scenario is unfolding.
IMO, the GOP primary is a non-event. Political nostalgia from more than 40 years ago simply is irrelevant in parsing the politisphere currently, especially that pertaining to the GOP. Voting results in 2024 should offer a more clear picture whether the GOP is a tent for the “working class.” What seems more relevant is de Tocqueville’s observation about the tension between “being led” and “being free” among the electorate and which of those roads will the political parties pave. The current GOP leading candidate has hollowed his nominal political party in favor of the “being led” theory sowing doubt and mistrust of governance and the electoral process. Today’s NYT Times carries a piece which unearthed a statement from the GOP leading nominee extolling the actions of the Chinese government in suppressing the Tiananmen Square protest. The existing RNC/GOP has been marginalized in the decision making of naming and vetting candidates.
Agreed, which is why I said it wasn't unusual for a presumptive leader to get trounced there. And most polls in the past have proven to be less than reliable right up until election day. Nevertheless, at this point, the odds still have to favor Trump.
Furthermore, a narrow Trump loss won't help whoever beat him, as the Cruz example shows, or HRC in '08, or Santorum in '12, etc, etc.
I sympathize with your moving ordeal, and you're right -- it's a yuge (pardon me) chore. And being an incorrigible packrat myself, I completely agree with your observation about keeping stuff no heir will ever want! It's a disease, for which I have yet to find a cure!
I have to believe that barring some quick reversals in fortunes, The Donald will win in IA, NH, and everywhere else. The Never-Trumpers in the GOP are clutching at straws. The IA caucuses will at least clarify whether a serious challenge to him exists in the party. It wouldn't be the first time that someone with a yuge (there I go again) lead going in still gets beaten in IA. But now that Haley has tied DeSantis (at 16% each) in the Des Moines Register poll, it seems even less likely that a single challenger emerges victorious there. The winner needs only a plurality of the caucus attendees.
The election year promises to be as interesting as the last two were, with perhaps many unexpected twists.
Thanks, but I would not pay a lot of attention to polling, especially in Iowa, where about 135,000 or so people will trudge to caucuses on an icy winter night in January. Trump led Iowa polling in 2016, where he lost narrowly to Cruz. Organizational strength matters there. I’ll start paying attention to the polling after Christmas.
IMO, the GOP primary is a non-event. Political nostalgia from more than 40 years ago simply is irrelevant in parsing the politisphere currently, especially that pertaining to the GOP. Voting results in 2024 should offer a more clear picture whether the GOP is a tent for the “working class.” What seems more relevant is de Tocqueville’s observation about the tension between “being led” and “being free” among the electorate and which of those roads will the political parties pave. The current GOP leading candidate has hollowed his nominal political party in favor of the “being led” theory sowing doubt and mistrust of governance and the electoral process. Today’s NYT Times carries a piece which unearthed a statement from the GOP leading nominee extolling the actions of the Chinese government in suppressing the Tiananmen Square protest. The existing RNC/GOP has been marginalized in the decision making of naming and vetting candidates.
Agreed, which is why I said it wasn't unusual for a presumptive leader to get trounced there. And most polls in the past have proven to be less than reliable right up until election day. Nevertheless, at this point, the odds still have to favor Trump.
Furthermore, a narrow Trump loss won't help whoever beat him, as the Cruz example shows, or HRC in '08, or Santorum in '12, etc, etc.
Dear Kelly,
I sympathize with your moving ordeal, and you're right -- it's a yuge (pardon me) chore. And being an incorrigible packrat myself, I completely agree with your observation about keeping stuff no heir will ever want! It's a disease, for which I have yet to find a cure!
I have to believe that barring some quick reversals in fortunes, The Donald will win in IA, NH, and everywhere else. The Never-Trumpers in the GOP are clutching at straws. The IA caucuses will at least clarify whether a serious challenge to him exists in the party. It wouldn't be the first time that someone with a yuge (there I go again) lead going in still gets beaten in IA. But now that Haley has tied DeSantis (at 16% each) in the Des Moines Register poll, it seems even less likely that a single challenger emerges victorious there. The winner needs only a plurality of the caucus attendees.
The election year promises to be as interesting as the last two were, with perhaps many unexpected twists.
Thanks, but I would not pay a lot of attention to polling, especially in Iowa, where about 135,000 or so people will trudge to caucuses on an icy winter night in January. Trump led Iowa polling in 2016, where he lost narrowly to Cruz. Organizational strength matters there. I’ll start paying attention to the polling after Christmas.