Stupid Boomlets for Senate GOP Leader

Mini-public boomlets have emerged for US Senator Rick Scott (R-FL) or JD Vance to emerge as the new majority leader in Wednesday's GOP leadership elections. Not helpful and not happening.

Chalk it up to human nature.

Even as supporters of losing campaigns often go through the five stages of grief, winners go through their own five stages. Let’s quickly walk through them. I’m no expert here since I’m not a psychologist, but let me know what you think.

• Disbelief: The shock and surprise of a victory realized.

• Happiness: The immediate feeling of joy that comes from victory.

• Anticipation: Happiness turns into the giddy anticipation of what lies ahead.

• Hubris: A sense of hubris overcomes the winner over the ability to achieve the possible, leading to reaching to expand their victories and a sense of euphoria, with little regard for the “challenges” ahead.

• Reality: You get punched in the mouth with reality.

I’m here to help the MAGAverse get over its plans and efforts to influence this week’s Senate leadership elections with this last-minute, last-gasp effort while they’re clearly in the “Anticipation” and especially the “Hubris” phases. I’m here to punch them in the mouth. Metaphorically, of course.

I love you guys, know many of you, and joined you in supporting Donald Trump. But this Senate leadership gambit is not smart. It even smells like a grift.

Let’s set the stage.

GOP Senators will gather this Wednesday morning in the Capitol to elect a new Floor Leader for the first time in 18 years. They will also coronate US Sen. John Barrasso (R-WY) as the new Assistant Floor Leader (Whip) and choose between US Senators Joni Ernst (R-IA) or Tom Cotton (R-AR) as the Chair of the Senate Republican Conference. Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV) is locked on as the new Chair of the Senate Republican Policy Committee.

A post on X from a clueless Axios reporter claiming to have reputable sources that Cotton has enough votes to win tells me he doesn’t. When it comes to Senate GOP leadership elections, when you go public, you’re losing.

If you’re curious about Senate leadership elections, I wrote a two-part series last March following the announcement by the current Senate GOP Leader, Mitch McConnell (R-KY) that he wouldn’t seek reelection in his leadership role (he remains in the Senate through 2026 when his term expires). I’ve linked to both at the end of this post.

I was thrilled to learn that Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC), a former presidential candidate, is running for Chair of the National Senatorial Campaign Committee. I expect him to be elected by acclamation, and he will be terrific in that role. He is well-loved and respected by his colleagues. And, more importantly, a proven fundraiser.

One last elected position: the conference vice chair will go to Oklahoma’s Senior US Senator, James Lankford, who runs unopposed. You may not like the immigration/border deal he cut with Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT) earlier this year, but his colleagues highly regard him.

Side note: Sen. Chuck Schumer announced this weekend that he would deny Senator-elect Dave McCormick (R-PA) from participating in this week’s orientation sessions for new Senators.

It is petty and without precedent.

GOP Senators for the new 119th Congress should assemble on the east Capitol steps for a photo this week and escort McCormick into the orientation en masse, reporters in tow. I hope the petulant, small-minded, and sore-losing Schumer will back off in advance. The precedent, in the House and Senate, is to allow both candidates from a contested election to attend and participate in whatever orientation sessions occur. Certifications of the election will ultimately decide who gets sworn in on January 3, 2025. Under the Constitution, each chamber of Congress is the ultimate judge of elections.

In 1974, the Louis Wyman (R) and John Durkin (D) Senate election in New Hampshire became the modern template for deciding such disputes. Ultimately, the Senate vacated the seat and agreed to a special election—a do-over—and Durkin won. I find no mention of Democrats denying Wyman the opportunity to participate in orientation sessions during the lengthy dispute.

Back to our Senate leadership election and the MAGAverse.

In this case, the orchestrated public conservative grassroots campaign in support of US Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL). MAGAverse is fueled by giddy overconfidence and intoxicating fumes from the presidential election, resulting in a wild overestimation of power and influence and abject ignorance of the Senate Republican Conference and how these elections work.

Also, there’s nothing unprecedented about doing leadership elections and freshman orientation the week after the election. They sometimes happen in early December as well. Tucker can remove his tin foil conspiracy hat.

Coupled with ignorance, this can backfire, leading to unwise and misguided actions—getting over their skis, as the metaphor goes. The Conservative Action Network is doing precisely that with its Friday endorsement of Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL), one of the three candidates openly running for Floor Leader. Insiders know that the real choice is between the current and immediate past Whip, the “two Johns,” Senators Cornyn (R-TX) and Thune (R-SD). Under the rules, if no one has 27 votes (a simple majority of 53 Senators), the third candidate (Scott) is dropped from the ballot, and the race boils down to Cornyn v. Thune.

I’m disgusted by a lot of the attacks on Cornyn and Thune. Disagree with their comments or legislation if you must, but they’re both solid conservatives and patriots who supported Trump’s election. And this is the worst, from someone I respect, Christian author Eric Metaxas. I’m deeply disappointed in him over this. I don’t know Cornyn well, but I know John Thune as a devout Christian and dedicated family man. Disgusting and discrediting.

The boomlet expanded with the help of Tucker Carlson and Elon Musk. Carlson I get. Musk should know better, presuming he has smart government affairs operatives around him that he listens to (maybe not). Having gone all-in with the MAGAverse, he’s just playing to his rabid followers on X. Fine.

Here’s how it unfolded on Friday.

After Trump’s decisive win, Scott clearly decided to “go public” with his Senate leadership campaign. He trails badly behind Cornyn and Thune, but he saw an opening with the MAGAverse to foment a grassroots, social media-driven campaign to flood Senate offices with desperate, last-minute appeals and threats.

I surmise that Scott asked his few supporters - Sens. Bill Hagerty (R-TN), Rand Paul (R-KY), Ron Johnson (R-WI), and fellow Floridian Marco Rubio (R-FL) to go public, at least on Elon Musk’s X, with their support.

The Conservative Action Network then sprang into action with an endorsement letter signed by the representatives of 34 Trump-aligned conservative groups, ranging from the Association for Mature American Citizens (AMAC, two signatures) to a pair of influential Reagan White House aides supporting Scott. Many are people I know, highly respect, and consider friends.

“Recess appointments” can occur when the Senate is out of session for more than three days. These days, the Senate rarely goes into recess because past presidents have abused the authority. Trump’s post guarantees that Senate Democrats will NEVER agree to such a schedule, as they must. Stupid post, Mr. President.

Not a single former US Senator who now works in the conservative “community” is listed. I didn’t see former US Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC), founder of the influential Conservative Partnership Institute, on the list. I’ve not spoken to Sen. DeMint, but I suspect he knows that such public gambits over Senate GOP leadership elections typically backfire. He is wise to keep his name off this effort.

A separate, smaller boomlet, led by radio talker and Turning Point USA’s Charlie Kirk, emerged for Vice President-elect JD Vance to be chosen as the Senate Republican Floor Leader along with his new job. But Kirk, perhaps slowly realizing how stupid that was, fell in line with the Scott boomlet. There is no precedent for the Vice President, who is not a Senator, doesn’t have a desk on the floor, and can’t address the Senate without its consent to serve as a Floor Leader. And there’s no precedent for a GOP “Senator,” much less a Vice President (President of the Senate) serving in more than one leadership position—profound constitutional and institutional ignorance.

Senators look to Vice Presidents like we used to consider children: Seen and not heard. Vice Presidents have the power to preside and break ties. That’s it.

Best of all, Vance is more focused on his new job, when he’ll resign his Senate seat, and whom Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine might appoint to replace him. While he may, technically, have the right to participate in the Senate GOP leadership elections on Wednesday, I predict he won’t, and he’ll be discouraged from doing so. He won’t be a Senator for much of the 119th Congress, if any. Why cast votes that might make enemies? I suspect he’s told his colleagues as much already, certainly the candidates.

Here’s what I think is going on.

First, Scott’s gambit plays into the MAGAverse’s need to keep their fundraising and support bases engaged. The perpetual outrage machine isn’t just a bug of the left; it’s a feature of the right. It’s designed to build influence by attracting engaged supporters and providing financial support. Scott also knows it’s a Hail Mary, a desperate move unlikely to succeed. Still, he sets himself up to be a point person for the MAGAverse in the Senate, build a national profile, raise campaign cash to spread around, and have outsized influence. He’ll attract, maybe, ten votes, double what he had going into the weekend. Good for him.

It’s not a lousy chit to have. The ability to turn thousands or millions of grassroots activists loose on Senators in support of something is impressive. He’s also now indebted to them, which may create trust issues with his colleagues.

Maybe Scott has another agenda, such as a 2028 Presidential run.

Interestingly, the one person who hasn’t joined the Scott boomlet is President Trump. He’s wise not to. Trump knows the price of backing people who are sure to lose, and he’s learned how to count votes. Trump may be impetuous, but he reaches out and listens to many people. Intelligent outsiders, from Presidents to Cabinet officials and former Senators to lobbyists, know not to get involved in Senate leadership elections.

Scott’s gambit works in this respect: he may get more Senators to support his campaign, combined with his Fox News appearances this weekend, but not because they want or expect him to win the contest.

Sen. Rubio’s vote for his home state colleague is no surprise; most home state colleagues do (Sen. Ted Cruz’s lack of support thus far for fellow Texan Cornyn is striking in that regard). Scott will win enough votes to keep Cornyn or Thune from a 27-vote first-ballot victory. That means Scott drops off the ballot. Those Scott voters will have new leverage with Thune or Cornyn in exchange for their votes.

I promise you that Sens. Johnson, Paul, Hagerty, Rubio, Tuberville, and others know that Scott will not triumph. But they will secure rule changes, legislative commitments, and other promises for their final vote. Even better committee assignments and a bigger “hideaway” office in the Capitol. And while they’re negotiating, they’re talking to their colleagues. They want to be on the winning side. Their best deals are meaningless if their vote goes to the loser.

Let’s also be real. The Senate’s Majority Leader lacks the powers of the Speaker of the House, and it’s not close. He (or she, if we ever get a female Floor Leader) is “first among equals.” They get the right of recognition on the floor, the power to call up legislation and nominations, and a few other powers delegated to them by his or her respective partisan conference. They don’t “run the Senate.”

I’m not about to predict who will become Senate Majority Leader, and I would be stupid to do so.

That’s how this works, folks. Senators are not stupid. They’re usually excellent negotiators, especially regarding Senate leadership elections. And your involvement is not welcome.

Here you go if you want to know more about Senate leadership elections.