Polling, Other Factors Suggest a Possible GOP Upset in Virginia Next Tuesday

Several Polls Have Virginia's Governor Race Tied or GOPer Youngkin Slightly Ahead

I recently warned you to ignore public opinion polling this week in Virginia’s hotly contested gubernatorial election between first-time GOP candidate Glenn Youngkin and former Democratic Gov. Terry McAuliffe. I feared that Democrats and their media allies, likely the Washington Post/ABC polling outfit, would engineer a poll designed to suppress the GOP vote as they did in Wisconsin two years ago.

The Washington Post/ABC poll had Biden defeating Trump by 17 points less than two weeks out from the election. The outcome was a difference of 20,000 votes, a .6% in the result for Biden. Wrong, if not malevolent polling.

It appears I was wrong. While it could still happen (look for the Jeff Bezos-owned Washington Post, which is all in for McAuliffe, to publish their final poll on Friday or this weekend), there are simply too many other polls that have the race statistically tied for a suppression poll to now work. Courtesy of uspresidentialelectionnews.com:

But there’s one poll missing from this list but featured elsewhere on this excellent political website - a Trafalgar poll from two weeks ago. It was “in the field” Monday, October 11 through Wednesday, October 13. Bottom line: another statistical tie, but Youngkin slightly ahead, 48.4% to McAuliffe’s 47.5%.

The key here isn’t necessarily the “head to head” or ballot test. It is 1) the trend line over the past several months (McAuliffe led by 9 points just a month ago and is now tied or losing) and 2) the underlying issues driving voter behavior, including enthusiasm. Back to the Trafalgar poll:

No wonder Glenn Youngkin has focused nearly all his advertising on McAuliffe’s major stumble during their second and final debate: “I don’t think parents should be telling schools what they should teach.” McAuliffe twice vetoed bipartisan legislation that would have required schools to notify parents when explicit materials were assigned in public schools. That prompted a powerful new ad that’s running in Virginia right now.

After realizing the hemorrhaging, McAuliffe launched his ad that accused Youngkin of “taking my words out of context.” Youngkin responded immediately with a brilliant ad outlining the seven times McAuliffe said parents shouldn’t be involved in their kids’ education or schools in one form or another.

As a 40-year veteran of political campaigns, allow me a few observations about the election and why Youngkin should win, albeit narrowly, despite demographic headwinds in the Commonwealth, especially in the large, deep blue, and fast-growing international enclaves of northern Virginia. This is not a prediction, as tempted as I am to make one.

Youngkin is Trending, On Offense, and His Issues Dominate the Closing Days

When your opponent is running ads late in a campaign that defensively addresses your signature issue, you’re winning. That’s what McAuliffe did, running his “my words out of context” ad on education. This election is closing on Youngkin’s issue turf and trumping (pun intended) McAuliffe’s over-arching message that Youngkin is a Donald Trump acolyte. He’s still running ads to that effect on social media. It is not working; it might have worked if Trump were still in office. Youngkin simply does not remind voters here of Donald Trump. Trump was neutral during the competitive nominating convention process last May and only endorsed Youngkin after he won.

The most significant challenge of any campaign, aside from turning out their vote, is framing the question by which voters will cast their votes. Most voters seem to be settling on this: Should parents control what their children are taught in schools? Another issue is crime with 50 county sheriffs having endorsed Youngkin. They have good reasons.

McAuliffe is Tone Deaf and Out of Touch

McAuliffe tried to dismiss the “Critical Race Theory” (CRT) issue by falsely claiming that CRT isn’t taught in Virginia schools. He called it a “dog whistle” and “racist.” We now know that Critical Race Theory was introduced in Virginia public schools during McAuliffe’s Administration. CRT has proven to be such a galvanizing issue that it almost dominated a US Senate GOP primary in Ohio this week, including references to Ground Zero in the CRT debate, Loudoun County, Virginia.

The National Political Environment Favors Youngkin

Youngkin is running on the issues of education, crime, and the state’s economy. He’s begun to mention failures of the Biden Administration. Biden is a considerable drag on Virginia Democrats. McAuliffe has admitted as much, and Trafalgar confirms it.

And, again, this poll was conducted two weeks ago. The polling sample skews Democratic (46% to 38% GOP) and female (54% to 46% male). Nothing has improved since for Biden or McAuliffe. Ouch.

McAuliffe Relies on Out of State Surrogates vs. Youngkin’s Grassroots Bus Tour

In three competitive campaigns I’ve been directly involved in - two of which won in then-Democratic-leaning Oklahoma (1992 and 1994) - I helped organize grassroots bus tours to demonstrate enthusiasm for my candidate, generate turnout in favorable areas, and get some last-minute “earned media.” It is a great tactic to keep the campaign on the offensive during those critical last days to show that the proverbial wind is at your back. It also keeps your candidate busy, surrounded by supporters.

Candidates love them. Volunteers love traveling with candidates from town to town, blitzing downtown or suburban areas while the media interview candidates. Sometimes, surrogates are included to help with the media, but they’re often not necessary.

Glenn Youngkin is on such a grassroots bus tour as we speak, and it has all the appearances of success.

What is McAuliffe doing? Bringing in out-of-state surrogates to gin up the Black vote in Virginia, including former President Barack Obama, Georgia election-denier Stacey Abrams, and Vice President Kamala Harris. President Biden is journeying four miles into deep-blue Arlington this week. Such surrogates are better at raising money than ginning up voter enthusiasm, from my experience.

Candidates who rely on out-of-state surrogates to do their job, especially turnout, are usually in trouble. Not always, but in this case, probably. Sure, McAuliffe has a bus, too, but it doesn’t look to be generating much excitement.

This has the hallmarks of a campaign event in North Korea.

As predicted, this has become the race to watch. It may prove a precursor, along with a tighter-than-expected race in even deeper blue New Jersey’s gubernatorial election on the same day. And while the focus is on the gubernatorial elections, there are also tight and competitive elections in Virginia for Lieutenant Governor (Winsome Sears vs. Democrat Hala Ayala) and Attorney General (Jason Miyares vs. incumbent anti-gun Democrat Mark Herring). If Youngkin wins, he’s likely to carry the Jamaican-born Sears and Cuban-American Miyares across the finish line with him.

Neither state’s contest was supposed to be close. McAuliffe was likely to use his springboard back into the governor’s mansion for a presidential run in 2024. How is that working out? Democratic dirty tricks don’t seem to be working, but not for lack of effort.

Feel the rumbling beneath your feet yet? An earthquake might, just maybe, be happening.

Jason Miyares, Glenn Youngkin, and Winsome Sears