Terry McAuliffe for. . . President?

His Odd Strategy, Messaging, and Tactics In Virginia's Governor Race Now Make Sense

Having spent a quarter-century working in, or with, dozens of congressional campaigns, I consider myself pretty plugged in and reasonably well connected in politics.

But even I was surprised on Tuesday morning while listening to the first hour of the estimable Hugh Hewitt’s national radio show. The Democratic candidate for Governor of Virginia, Terry “The Macker” McAuliffe, is using his candidacy as a springboard to higher office.

He plans to seek the 2024 Democratic nomination for President. That is if he wins on November 2nd.

It all makes so much sense now.

True, it is just a rumor. Hewitt relayed the rumor from an unnamed political consultant and asked GOP nominee Glenn Youngkin about it. Here’s the question and answer transcript, via hughhewitt.com:

The uninspiring McAuliffe’s fealty to leftist teacher union bosses (“I don’t think parents should be telling schools what they should teach”); his weird acceptance of an endorsement from a group whose mission it is to “defund the police;” and the invitation to election-denier and failed Georgia gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams to campaign for him are odd messages to a largely center-right electorate (except for the People’s Republic of Northern Virginia). And, of course, McAuliffe continues to double down at every opportunity to tie Youngkin to Donald Trump, who lost Virginia to Biden by 10 points in 2020.

There is no evidence McAuliffe’s strategy is working. And bringing Barack Obama in to campaign with McAuliffe (or as we call him, “McAwful”) smells of desperation. Obama doesn’t have a stellar record in helping Democrats win competitive races. In 2016, he made a celebrated appearance on “the mall” in Philadelphia with Bruce Springstein to help Hillary Clinton’s campaign. Trump won Pennsylvania, the first time a Republican carried it since George H. W. Bush in 1988.

On the other hand, Youngkin focuses mainly on education and crime, two top bread and butter issues critical to a broad demographic of voters, predominantly urban and suburban working parents with school-age children.

It makes complete sense that McAuliffe wants to be President, given his close relationship with impeached former President Bill Clinton and other Democratic leaders, along with legendary fundraising skills. Who believes that Joe Biden will run for reelection in 2024 when he is an even-more-diminished 82? Who thinks Veep Kamala Harris is up to the job? McAuliffe to the rescue, a goal perhaps more achievable if he is the sitting Governor of Virginia.

The rumor couldn’t come at a worse time for McAuliffe. Virginians, like most voters, want a full-time governor committed to their state. Voters, in general, do not like candidates who see political office as a stepping stone. Furthermore, Biden’s tanking poll numbers, worsening political environment, and policy disasters are taking on the role of cement shoes for McAuliffe’s political fortunes. One example is the statistics for early voting in Virginia, which began on September 17th. Democrats are supposed to be masters at early and absentee voting.

Besides, the rumor is such a surprise because no one I know sees McAuliffe as presidential material. Not even Democrats. Except maybe for McAuliffe. And it might explain why Harris hasn’t aggressively campaigned for McAuliffe. Not that it matters.

In recent years, Virginia has been trending blue, thanks to massive growth in deep blue northern Virginia coupled with stagnant population growth in highly Republican rural areas. That might be enough to elect McAuliffe, but the political headwinds are stiff and getting worse. Could Democrats find a way to cheat? It would possibly take a brazen effort such as outgoing Democratic Gov. Ralph Northam unilaterally eliminating a requirement for a witness signature on absentee ballots during the height of an election. That would be like changing the rules of a football game in the fourth quarter. Possible? Yes, but it doesn’t pass the smell test, especially for many voters. But watch this space.

McAuliffe has yet to address this rumor. But it is plausible. It just might be another nail in McAuliffe’s political coffin.