High-Stakes Debate
Joe Biden debates because he has to; Donald Trump debates because he wants to. Who won the "negotiations," and which candidate faces higher risks? Some advice for Trump.
Last week’s major political development was the issue of presidential debates. At least two will be held, starting with an unprecedentedly early June 27th in CNN’s Atlanta studios before either presidential nominating convention. The second one will be held on September 10th, location TBD. A vice presidential debate may be held on July 27, just days after the GOP nominating convention in Milwaukee, although I’m not sure the respective campaigns have agreed to that just yet.
We also know practically nothing about the format. We do know that, apparently, at Biden’s campaign “request,” no audience will be permitted. Other reports suggest that microphones may be cut off if a candidate exceeds their time limit. Will there be opening and closing statements? How much time for answers? Rebuttals? How about props and electronic devices? We don’t know how long it will last, but 90 minutes is the historical norm. Last week, Trump told radio host Hugh Hewitt, a former presidential debate moderator, that he’d like to go two hours.
There is one clear loser in these debate “negotiations,” if we can call it that: the bipartisan rejection, if not demise, of the failed Commission on Presidential Debates. Good Riddance. Their 15 minutes are long gone. Maybe they’re still useful in helping foreign countries.
That, along with agreeing to appear on CNN for any reason, makes Trump’s acceptance of the debate high risk. And then there are the moderators.
The first debate’s moderators will be the notoriously anti-Trump CNN anchors and reporters Dana Bash and Jake Tapper, a former press secretary to a Democratic Member of Congress from the Philadelphia suburbs, where Tapper is also from. Some may think Tapper and Bash can separate their professionalism from their obvious animus toward the former President.
If you believe that, I have a bridge to sell you.
Don’t believe me? This is from the Media Research Center, with Tapper commenting on the Trump presidency on election night 2020:
“It has also been a time of extreme divisions. Many of the divisions caused and exacerbated by President Trump himself....It has been a time where truth and fact were treated with disdain. It is a time of cruelty where official inhumanities such as child separation became the official shameful policy of the United States. But now the Trump presidency is coming to an end, to an end, with so many squandered opportunities and ruined potential, but also an era of just plain meanness. It must be said to paraphrase President Ford, for tens of millions of our fellow Americans, their long national nightmare is over.”
— Host Jake Tapper on CNN election coverage, November 7, 2020.
Or how about this gem:
“We’re not carrying his [Donald Trump] remarks live because frankly he says a lot of things that are not true and sometimes potentially dangerous.”
— Host Jake Tapper on CNN’s Anderson Cooper 360, June 13, 2023.
Speaking of potentially dangerous things, Tapper has also very publicly called for the Biden Administration to abandon Israel in its war against Hamas.
Dana Bash, who covers Congress for CNN, is no better. She has long publicly praised former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) and lofted this softball at the former Speaker when talking about the Biden economic record:
“I want to ask about the economy. Inflation, it looks good when you look at the numbers. Inflation is down to just 3 percent. The labor market is steadily adding jobs. Wages are up. Consumer sentiment is the highest since September of 2021. So there’s, a lot for President Biden to tout. So the question is about why Americans don’t seem to be giving him the credit. A Quinnipiac poll this week found nearly six in 10 Americans still disapprove of his handling of the economy. Why is that? And what does he have to do to turn that around?”
— Host Dana Bash to Rep. Nancy Pelosi on CNN’s State of the Union, July 23, 2023.
This will be similar to a “question” Bash, I predict, will happily offer Joe Biden. And Bash thought Biden’s horrific “Hate of the Union” Address in March “met the moment.” Tapper and Bash are trapped inside the Washington-New York media bubble, largely disconnected from the real world. I doubt Philly native Tapper has ever ventured west of Philly’s Blue Route (I-476) except for first-class or charter flights to the Left Coast out of PHL, flying over thousands of small towns and counties he’ll never visit or acknowledge.
ABC will host the second debate, with anchor David Muir and celebrity reporter and children’s book author Linsey Davis moderating. Both appear far less partisan or political than Tapper or Bash. They at least keep their political leanings to themselves. But the notorious George Stephanopolous, the highly unprofessional, dishonest, and deeply partisan Clinton Administration Democratic hack and “bimbo eruption” squelcher, will no doubt be involved in prepping his colleagues.
It is fair to suggest that Trump set himself up for this with his mantra of debating Biden “anytime, anywhere, anyplace.” Both campaigns suggest the other fell into their respective trap. Few thought Biden would - or should - debate Trump. Given Biden’s obvious physical and mental infirmities, the bar is set low for his debates. Really low.
That Trump wasted little time accepting hostile debate proposals suggests he is sufficiently confident (hubris, anyone?) in handling any question, format, or moderator.
Trump’s debate performances have ranged from awful (his first one with Biden in 2020) to decent against Hillary Clinton in 2016. He’s performed better in GOP primary debates when he’s participated (not this cycle, not that it mattered). Regardless, Trump has his share of advantages in the July debate.
The issues voters care most about favor Trump
Trump has led in handling most major issues in recent polls. He’s also narrowly ahead or tied at this juncture in the polls in all six battleground states (Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Georgia). That can change, of course, and probably will shift slightly over the next several weeks and months. However, given the shrinking size of persuadable “swing” voters, the numbers are unlikely to move much in either direction. Other factors, such as turnout and, yes, irregularities, may prove decisive, especially in Pennsylvania, with its well-deserved reputation for dirty voter roles, corrupt and illegal changes in voting and counting procedures, rampant and historic voter fraud in Philadelphia and, increasingly, its close-in suburbs.
And the current set of issues mostly favors Trump and the GOP, from immigration - still at the top of most polls - to Israel, crime, and, of course, the economy. That leaves Democrats with little more than abortion and legalizing pot as a rallying cry and, of course, Trump himself. More about that later.
Biden is infirm and increasingly incoherent
There’s not much point in stating the obvious. Everyone sees it except the deluded handful who choose not to believe their lying eyes. An ABC/Ipsos poll from February reports that 86 percent of Americans think Biden is too old to serve a second term. A majority don’t think he’ll finish it. While a majority think Trump is also too old, his numbers pale to Biden’s. No amount of Adderall, Captigon, or Red Bulls can fix a rapidly aging and infirm, if not incoherent, 81-year-old who would be 86 if he (we) survived a full second term. Trump’s call for drug tests just before the debate is. . . interesting and justified.
Moderators have a lot to lose, too
While my confidence in Tapper’s and Bash’s integrity and professionalism scrapes the floor, if they are seen as taking sides or showing favoritism to one candidate or another—a given, in my view—that will generate sympathy for Trump.
Would you like evidence? How about the polls showing solidifying, if not growing, support for Trump given the 91” lawfare” indictments he’s facing in four separate trials, all of which have dominated the media to a varying degree since last fall? People know the legal system has been abused. According to two separate polls, Trump is even polling within the margin of error in Minnesota and Virginia.
Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R-VA) for Vice President, anyone? Trump could do much worse than a successful international businessman and popular chief executive who is cautious and culturally conservative.
If Tapper and Bash show the partisanship they’re known for and start entering the debate or challenging Trump, it could backfire spectacularly.
Expectations work both ways
Biden benefits from very low expectations. If he strings sentences together, does not lose focus, and even delivers a zinger or two, you can expect Tapper and Bash, along with their colleagues in the media, to declare him the winner immediately.
However, Trump can also benefit from low expectations. Most remember his awful, turgid first debate with Biden in 2020, when he was clearly wildly overconfident, unprepared, and unprofessional. He came across as rude and a bully, cementing people’s negative perceptions about him. It still haunts him.
If Trump can moderate his impetuous and bombastic comportment, let Biden talk, and firmly yet respectfully rebuke the moderators when necessary while exercising message discipline, he, too, will make himself more attractive to moderate-minded voters. Voters may not like the candidates but respect the media even less.
Advice for Trump - be a happy (and disciplined) warrior
I’m not advising Trump (or any) candidate for office at the present time, and I’ve been wrong about many of my predictions for this election (and it’s not even June yet). However, that won’t stop me from offering some friendly advice as a congressional campaign debate veteran negotiator, researcher, coach, and surrogate.
First, let Biden be Biden. Let him talk, and don’t interrupt. Wager that he’ll meander into incoherence and falsehoods over 90 minutes. It’s a pretty safe bet, although the moderators will likely bail him out if he loses his train of thought, misspeaks, or worse. Even then, most voters will see right through that. Trump should forgo any attempt that tries to anger or trip up Biden. It won’t work. Beating up or being mean to Biden will backfire.
Format question - will the candidate be allowed to bring props, notes, electronic devices, or earpieces to the podium? The answer better be “no,” except for a pad and pen provided at the podium by the hosts. Nothing more.
Second, sport a smile that radiates confidence but not arrogance or smugness, and remember: message discipline. Every answer should frame the issue (challenging moderators when they most assuredly will base questions on false premises) and segue to favorable positions and statements with broad appeal. Get away from questions about the 2020 election—voters are not interested in that, and it's a trap.
Leave voters with a clear, positive agenda they can relate to. It helps when you’re having fun.
Trump should count on Tapper and Bash to focus on three things: His trials, the 2020 election, and abortion. Will he pardon himself? My over-under on Stormy Daniels and/or Jean Carroll questions is three.
My over-under on Hunter Biden's questions or special counsel Robert Hur’s report for Joe Biden is zero.
Will Trump accept the results of the 2024 election if he loses? He knows it’s coming. He will also see his record as President challenged since Democrats are horrified that most voters view his presidency and its record more favorably than Biden’s. Biden will rely on Tapper and Bash to deliver attacks he can no longer articulate.
The sad part is that the biased Tapper and Bash are unlikely to focus on the issues that matter most to voters, other than superficially or to their peers in the Beltway media. They will unlikely press Biden on the open border, his horrid economic and foreign policy records, or proposals to raise taxes. I would love to be proved wrong.
To his credit, Trump has been doing the circuit with radio talk shows lately, most recently with the media’s finest interviewer, Hugh Hewitt. It is an outstanding interview and worth your time. This is the Trump he needs to be on June 27th.
The debates have been set up to portray Biden in the most favorable light—it’s a home game with referees he largely selected. Every sports fan knows that the home team faces more pressure to win, especially in the playoffs. The format shows a lack of confidence in Biden by his own team. We all see it; it’s obvious.
What about between now and the debates? If I were Trump’s campaign, I would do several things. First, make my vice presidential choice sooner rather than later. His veep choice can play the role of surrogate while Trump handles his 91 indictments, the vast majority of which voters see as politically motivated. Second, I would negotiate the debates very publicly to do two things: show how the debate format is being “rigged” to help Biden and make the moderator’s professionalism and integrity an issue. Given their past statements on their network, it is fair game. Tapper and Bash will have little choice but to prove otherwise.
Trump already called for drug tests for both candidates just before the debate. Presumably, he’ll propose making test results public. Immediately.
Speaking of fair game, the Federal Election Commission also regulates presidential debates, including “structure” and participation criteria. CNN appears to recognize that, and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is making a strong play to qualify for the debate. He might make the stage if he’s at 15 percent in enough polling and has qualified for enough state ballots for a shot at 270 electoral votes. That’s a long shot, but I’m not intimately familiar with the ballot process for independents in every state. It will make the debate interesting, but Biden’s folks will demand that RFK Jr. be denied a podium, and they’re fighting to keep him off ballots. So much for democracy.
Also, if the format is tilted too much in Biden’s favor, it is possible that Trump (or RFK) can take his challenge to the agency, whose six members are split evenly between major political parties. Trump’s not likely to win, but RFK could more likely win an FEC challenge. Keeping someone off the stage is worse than tilting it.
Kennedy is an accomplished ambulance chaser with provocative, out-of-the-box views, from his radical pro-abortion stance to his unconventional nutrition regimen and Alex Jones-style views on chemicals in the water supply. However, his recent campaign video, “State of the Union,” is among the best I’ve seen. It resonates. The jury is out on which major party nominee benefits or suffers more from Kennedy on the ballot. His appearance on the June 27 debate change would be a potential game-changer. Watch out if he can parrot this “restoring the American Dream” message (see below) in a debate. Given the unpopularity of the two major party nominees, Americans have never been more open to a non-major party candidate.
For all his criticism of major corporations, he sold his vice presidential nomination to a rich divorcee of Google founder and Russia-native Sergey Brin. Nicole Shanahan just gave her and Kennedy’s campaign $8 million to help them get on the ballot. It’s a desperate move that might work.
Regardless, I can’t envision Kennedy/Shanahan winning a single electoral vote in November. Perot/Stockdale won 19 percent of the vote in 1992 with zero electoral votes.
To find the last third-party candidate to win electoral votes, you must return to 1968 and the George Wallace campaign.
Remember, it was CNN contributor Donna Brazile who, eight years ago, fed CNN debate questions to Hillary Clinton. To his credit, Tapper challenged her integrity for that (perhaps more upset that they were caught). However, given how readily and easily CNN and ABC have acceded to the Biden campaign’s requests/demands, it is fair to ask how much pre-debate coordination will occur between them. Biden’s campaign will do whatever it takes to keep Kennedy off stage. The end justifies the means.
One last note of caution. The Biden campaign knows that Trump will likely pull a Reagan. At the final Reagan-Carter debate just before the election in 1980, Reagan closed the debate with “The Question” that framed the election for undecided voters: “Are you better off than you were four years ago?” Carter didn’t see that coming.
At that point, polling had Carter and Reagan tied, with about ten percent of the voters undecided. Reagan romped in a landslide, with Carter conceding some three hours before the polls closed on the West Coast. The Biden campaign will try to preempt that by ensuring that there are no closing statements and that Trump doesn’t get the last word. And they’ll be ready for a retort of their own, probably focused on abortion and Trump’s legal challenges. “Are we better off with back alley abortions and a president who will threaten our democracy and put himself above the law by pardoning himself for his crimes. . .”
Of course, Trump can “trump” that line of discourse, predicting that Biden will pardon himself and his son before he leaves office, either by defeat or by impeachment, potentially leaving us with Kamala Harris. I’ll have more advice on the key messages Trump needs to focus on as we get closer to June 27th.
This was true in 2020, and it’s true again: If this election becomes all about Trump, Biden may win. If this election is framed as a clear choice between two opposite records and visions, something Biden increasingly cannot articulate with veracity or coherence, Trump will likely be the 46th President.
You, the jury, will decide.
Great advice to Trump to be happy but strong or act Presidential not like a spoiled child throwing a temper tantrum