Trump Just Did David McCormick a Big Favor
Donald Trump's surprising endorsement of celebrity TV doctor and longtime New Jersey resident Dr. Mehmet Oz for Pennsylvania's GOP US Senate nomination will backfire.
Former President Donald Trump hasn’t hidden his ambition for another return to the White House. Short of an announcement, he’s strongly hinted that his supporters will “like” his eventual announcement. His poll numbers look good right now.
Meanwhile, according to Ballotpedia, Trump has issued 442 political endorsements since leaving office. That includes 14 gubernatorial candidates and 16 US Senate contests. He previously endorsed author Sean Parnell for the GOP nomination for US Senate. But Parnell dropped out after losing an ugly child custody case to his ex-wife.
Trump’s latest endorsement is celebrity TV doctor and longtime New Jersey resident Dr. Mehmet Oz. A graduate of the University of Pennsylvania medical school, he moved in with his inlaws in 2020 to claim Pennsylvania residency. He’s running a well-funded and slick campaign thus far and led in some early polling. But the latest polls show Oz tied with or trailing former Bush 43 Administration Treasury official, hedge fund manager, and Bloomsberg, Pennsylvania native David McCormick by 6 or more points.
McCormick’s campaign responded with an endorsement from former two-term Pennsylvania US Senator and presidential candidate Rick Santorum. Trump captured - stole - many of the themes from Santorum’s 2014 book, “Blue Collar Conservative,” for his own successful 2016 campaign.
McCormick reportedly met twice with Trump in recent weeks to win his endorsement. To no avail, obviously. But McCormick isn’t without his own impressive endorsements, including former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Trump's White House press secretary (and future Arkansas Gov.) Sarah Huckabee Sanders. And while many think Trump’s endorsement of Oz may help, it is more of a death blow to the nascent campaign of Trump’s former US Ambassador to Denmark, the estimable Carla Sands. She enjoys a lengthy list of endorsements, including former House Speaker and former presidential candidate Newt Gingrich and an impressive array of state officials and fellow former ambassadors.
There are other strong candidates in the race. They include real estate developer and 2018 Lieutenant Governor nominee Jeff Bartos (he lost that year to the likely Democratic nominee for US Senate in 2022, John Fetterman, a former state chair for the Bernie Sanders presidential campaign). Bartos enjoys strong endorsements, as does Kathy Barnett, an impressive African-American candidate from the Philadelphia suburbs. But Oz and McCormick are sucking all the oxygen - and money - out of the room.
At least for now. About five weeks before the May 17 primary, there’s the potential for a third candidate to emerge as an alternative if voters sour on a bitter Oz vs. McCormick contest. It’s happened before, and Sands, Bartos, Barnette, and Philadelphia attorney George Bochetto are undoubtedly hoping to capture lightning in a bottle. They’ll need a breakthrough issue and more money. Good luck.
I’m betting Trump’s endorsement will not help Oz. While Trump may continue to enjoy strong support in the Keystone State, Oz’s flaws are likely to prove too fatal for this attempted rescue.
Trump may be betting that his endorsement will elevate Oz’s poll numbers and score a huge triumph for each. But reporters and others are likely to ask why Trump chose carpetbagger Oz over someone who not only was offered a senior position in his Administration as Deputy Secretary of Defense but for whom McCormick’s wife, Dina Powell, served as a former Deputy National Security Advisor? They may find out that Oz agreed more with Trump on relitigating Trump’s 2020 “stolen election” claims. While there is plenty and growing evidence of misfeasance and even malfeasance in some 2020 election states, including Pennsylvania, it is not a winning issue in the upcoming elections.
Further, Trump’s endorsements haven’t always translated to electoral success. Just ask US Rep. Mo Brooks (R-AL), trailing so badly in the Alabama US Senate primary that Trump “unendorsed” him, weirdly calling him “woke.” Or former US Senator David Perdue, trailing badly in his primary contest against incumbent GOP Gov. Brian Kemp in Georgia.
Oz has polling and perception problems of his own. A Public Opinion Strategies poll - one of the nation’s leading GOP polling firms - shows that many Pennsylvania Republicans view him unfavorably.
Oz’s favorable image stood at 37% favorable and 49% unfavorable, a near-complete reversal since January.
About 29% of GOP primary voters view Oz as “liberal” on issues versus 17% who say he is conservative. Another 56% say Oz is more liberal than they are versus 7% who say he is more conservative. Both scales have flipped on Oz since January.
Author and journalist Selena Zito recently wrote about why McCormick is defeating Oz for the New York Post, covering a campaign event for the West Point graduate and Gulf War veteran.
“In the crowd were Deborah Young and her husband, Ed Nesbel, who have gone to events hosted by the other candidates, including Dr. Oz. Young admits she was impressed by Oz’s stage presence, but she was drawn to McCormick’s charm.
“‘Nothing he said was a laundry list of talking points that he had memorized,’ said Young of McCormick.
“His approach is wildly different to Dr. Oz, who is known for breezy tour de forces that often leave voters feeling like they had visited the set of ‘The Ellen DeGeneres Show.’
“‘There was a lot of show and music with Dr. Oz,’ said Eric Lasure, a supervisor at Guy Chemical and a Mennonite pastor, after both men came to events in his hometown of Somerset Township.
“‘That is nice and all, but I need to know if a candidate shares my values before I give them my vote,’ Lasure said, adding that he is leaning McCormick’s way.”
Pennsylvania is also home to many food manufacturers, especially snack foods made by companies such as Herr’s, Utz, and Hershey’s, among other legendary home-grown companies like HJ Heinz (now Kraft Heinz), Snyder’s Lance, and Hanover. Food industry workers remember Oz’s well-televised attacks against food industry practices, including the use of genetically modified ingredients that help increase yields. As supply-chain disruptions and now Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine is driving food inflation and shortages, this doesn’t play well.
And a large percentage of these mostly-rural food workers are Republicans.
“Pennsylvania leads the nation in food-processing companies, with more than 2,300 operating across the state. The strength of the food-processing sector supports Pennsylvania’s leading-state status in the value of shipments of canned fruit and vegetable specialty products, chocolate and cocoa products, potato chips, and pretzels. Our dairy industry ranks second in the country in butter production and the top 10 in cheese and milk production,” writes the commonwealth’s Department of Community and Economic Development.
Pennsylvania also has the nation’s fifth-largest wine industry. And they probably don’t take well to blue wine, also hawked on Oz’s show.
As a former Pennsylvania resident and voter (and food industry executive), I learned that Keystone State voters take their politics and their politicians seriously. They expect them to be serious, experienced, and relatable - authentic. The most recent two GOP US Senators were the studious Pat Toomey, who is retiring this year, and Santorum, who rose to the third-highest ranking leadership post in the US Senate. He also won 11 state primaries as the runner-up to Mitt Romney for the GOP’s presidential nomination in 2012. Both were Pennsylvania natives (Santorum, while born in Winchester, Virginia, moved as a young child to Pennsylvania) with deeply personal and political roots in the Commonwealth. That matters here.
Outsiders and carpetbaggers do not fare well in Pennsylvania politics. And outside endorsements, even from a popular former President for them, won’t work, either. And when McCormick wins the primary on May 17th, his failure to win Trump’s endorsement may actually prove helpful in winning back key suburban voters in places like Chester County in the Philadelphia suburbs.
Regular readers of this site know that I voted twice for Trump. And if he’s the nominee in 2024, I’ll vote for him again. But Trump’s endorsement was ill-advised if meant to help Oz. It is more likely to help David McCormick win in November. At least here.