The Road to Milwaukee
The result of Iowa’s caucuses proclaim the GOP presidential nomination over. But there’s lots for the Trump GOP to do between now and their convention in Milwaukee this July.
The hit on Iowa’s quadrennial GOP presidential caucuses is they do a poor job picking the nominee. They’re better at culling the field for upcoming primaries in New Hampshire (next week), Nevada (February 8th), South Carolina (February 24th), and “Super Tuesday” (March 5th).
The road is littered with “Presidents of Iowa,” including George H. W. Bush (1980), and more recently, Gov. Mike Huckabee (R-AR, 2008), Sen. Rick Santorum (R-PA, 2012), and Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX, 2016). Perhaps they’re better labeled the Iowa “carcasses” for the candidates who don’t survive a frigid January evening in Iowa. Hat tip to a clever email writer at Fox News for that one.
But the hit is wrong this time. With Donald Trump’s overpowering 52 percent win after snowstorms and subzero temperatures, former Speaker Newt Gingrich is correct to note that the nomination is over. “Get over it,” he says. Trump busted through several records, from highest percentage for a non-incumbent to largest margin. Very Trumpian. Credit where it is due.
The most overused phrase in politics these days is “path to victory.” As in, Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley no longer have one. Credit Vivek Ramaswamy for living up to his campaign slogan, “Truth,” and confronting it head on after his eight percent fourth place finish, good for a couple of convention delegates that he should hang on to. He paid for them, after all. A lot.
Oh, sure, America’s most effective Governor is continuing his campaign in South Carolina while Haley took a beeline to New Hampshire. Her campaign sports an increasingly more moderate hue as she enlists Democrats and independents to cross over to vote for her in the Granite State’s open GOP primary, as she apparently tried in Iowa (Democrats and independents could show up at the caucuses and reregister as Republicans). It’s as likely to work as well for her in New Hampshire as it did in Iowa, where she prevailed in one county by one vote. For now.
It really is Trump’s party now, like it or not. For many of us who wanted the GOP to become the primary home of working class Americans, this is not quite what we expected, but so be it. Looking at college educated wokesters and their bizarro world, I’m fine.
But DeSantis does have a path to play spoiler. By staying on the ballot in New Hampshire, he probably hurts Haley. And by dropping out after New Hampshire but before South Carolina’s February 24th primary and endorsing Trump, he helps the former President deliver a decisive blow and restores a modicum of future viability. Trump enjoys higher favorability - and the support of its popular incumbent governor, Henry McMaster - in South Carolina than he did in Iowa.
At that point, game over. But frankly, it already is. DeSantis is still the governor of our third largest state for two years. Haley will slouch back to her tony Hilton Head mansion and wait for her husband to come home from deployment. Her options are limited. A President Trump might consider her for Ambassador to India. That would be a great gig, but she’s likely to think she can run again for President in 2028. Maybe she’ll run to replace Tim Scott in the US Senate, who has promised not to seek reelection in 2028 when he is likely to run for president again, one of a few hundred candidates. Time heals a lot of wounds, and makes people forget things.
That is, unless she does something foolish and agrees to serve on a “No Labels” ticket. I don’t think that’s in the cards. But egos are powerful things, and every presidential wannabe has a big one. I still don’t think “No Labels” fields a ticket in 2024. Too cacophonous.
Trump and RNC leadership have probably begun quietly planning for their dance towards the GOP nominating convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin in late July 15-18. The party’s platform committee will be meeting the week before. That’s seven months from now, not as much time as you think. There’s lots to do, and here’s what you may see.
Unfortunately for Trump, he’ll be spending most of that time not campaigning, but appearing in courtrooms. Because of that, among other reasons, watch for the Trump campaign to consider the following.
Name a Vice Presidential Nominee Now
Radio talker and former Reagan White House aide Hugh Hewitt and others strongly suggest Trump name a running mate sooner than later. That makes sense for two reasons. First, he’ll have an instant surrogate to campaign where he cannot, and second, depending on whom he picks, he can begin to assure nervous suburban nellies that Trump is preparing a talented team to help him govern on Day One of his one and only term (he can’t run again).
I’ve already predicted he will choose Arkansas Governor Sarah Huckabee Sanders. She is a highly popular first term chief executive in the Diamond State and veteran of the Trump White House, a consummate and articulate loyalist who is tough and smart with strong populist appeal. Trump’s base would go wild. She would eviscerate Kamala Harris in a debate and elsewhere, but that’s a low bar.
The GOP bench is deep with talent. There are many others to consider, including his defeated primary opponents. It would surprise me if Trump chose among his vanquished foes, however. DeSantis would probably rather finish strong as Governor the next two years and begin planning his next presidential campaign. Haley would love to be picked as veep but that would disappoint if not anger Trump’s base, something he’s not inclined to do.
Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R-VA) would be an inspired choice, a successful and popular governor from a purple state whose annointment would appeal to the party’s nervous “establishment” wing without offending his base. Virginia is also a purple state that Trump has never won, or even come close. A famously deliberative and cautious Youngkin with strong suburban appeal could at least make Virginia’s 13 electoral votes competitive again, divert Democratic resources, and might help the GOP topple Hillary Clinton’s 2016 running mate, uber-lefty incumbent Senator Tim Kaine, with the right candidate.
I agree with Hewitt. Trump needs a strong surrogate to raise money, build a national organization, test messages, and be where Trump can’t. He claims that he’s made his choice. He should just go ahead and name them and put him or her to work.
Announce Cabinet and Senior Advisor “Candidates”
Trump will be advised not to offer any jobs in his Administration during the campaign. That would likely be illegal - the promise of jobs for support is a legal no-no. But he can float names of people on his “short” list, starting with national security positions - Secretary of State, Secretary of Defense, Secretary of Homeland Security, Director of National Intelligence, and National Security Advisor.
Again, the GOP has a strong bench of outstanding candidates for those jobs, from successful former occupiers (e.g., Mike Pompeo, Robert O’Brien, John Ratcliffe, Ric Grenell, among others) and several Members of Congress.
Doing so should calm international markets and the nervous nellies in the national intelligence community. He may go one step further and float names of possible new FBI Directors, with a promise to fire incumbent Christopher Wray. Heart, be still.
Given that there are 13 Cabinet and additional senior White House positions, Trump’s campaign can almost roll out one per week until Milwaukee. They should include a few unconventional options.
Start Developing a “Grassroots” Republican National Platform
During the 1992, I was the senior aide to the Chairman of that year’s Republican Platform Committee, US Senator Don Nickles (R-OK). The job typically changes hands every quadriennel election between the chief Policy Committee chairs of the House and Senate GOP. Trump should consider announcing that he’s turning “to the people” to help write the new Republican platform, and ask his congressional chairs to hold very public hearings in key states - 1-2 per month focused on Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania (one in Pittsburgh, one in Harrisburg), Georgia, and Wisconsin. I would add Manchester, New Hampshire and perhaps Montana, which has a serious US Senate race in 2024. That will cover the major regions of the nation.
Invite testimony from real people who can talk in “kitchen table” terms about key parts of the Biden record (inflation, the border, anti-semitism) and the GOP agenda. Invite Americans of all stripes to submit their own testimony online (and carefully scrub the Democratic plants posing as extremists) as a way to compete for speaking slots at the convention. And I wouldn’t be too concerned about protests from the kooky left, but security will need to be a consideration. Trump need not show up at any of the hearings, which if done right, will attract media attention and good audiences. You can also build events around those hearings in the form of outreach and “message events” in communities, from affordable housing to affordable gasoline.
We did something similar in 1992, but looking back, I would do a few things differently. And the GHWB campaign didn’t care. Trump should, and likely will.
I would also break protocol and ask House GOP Conference Chair Elise Stefanik (R-NY) - with whom I briefly worked when she staffed the 2012 Platform effort - to co-chair the process, representing the House. I would also ask Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) to co-chair and represent governors and borrow from many of his good and effective ideas. If I read my calendar correctly, it’s time for the Senate Republican Policy Committee’s chair, Senator Joni Ernst (R-IA), to serve as chair of the RNC Platform Committee. She will be terrific, and the military veteran might be looking for a way to help Trump following her strict neutrality in the Hawkeye State this week.
Fact: there is great deference to the convention delegates, all independently elected, who serve on the Platform Committee. The process is highly democratic. Trump and his minions will have only so much control, unlike the Democrats who drive a top-down process.
Build the Election Integrity Network
Given the numerous issues surrounding the Covid-plagued 2020 election, the RNC should take the lead to develop a national election integrity network of lawyers, poll watchers and workers, and others. It should be coupled with a strong early vote and turnout system, not unlike Gov. Youngkin’s laudable effort during Virginia’s off-year legislative elections.
Fortunately, while the media has focused on Trump’s and others’ lamentations and relitigation of the 2020 election, election experts such as friend and fellow native Oklahoman Cleta Mitchell, head of the Election Integrity Network at the Conservative Partnership Institute; Heritage Foundation’s Hans von Spakovsky; and J. Christian Adams at the Public Integrity Legal Foundation are working with state and local volunteers to train an army of election workers and watchers and promote reforms. These are non-partisan groups who should be encouraged and supported in their efforts by both parties. After all, election integrity shouldn’t be a partisan issue. Sadly, it is, with Democrats on the wrong side, opposing voter ID and cleaning voter rolls, and promoting “vote by mail,” no mail ballot verification, ballot harvesting (intimidation), and worse.
Adams, along with other organizations such as the Judicial Watch, have successful challenged Pennsylvania and other states that violate federal law on the proper maintenance of voter rolls. Given growing doubt about the integrity of elections, this effort needs to begin in earnest last week. Sure, the GOP will be accused of “voter suppression.” They always are and will be. But there are too many incidences of voter irregularities and outright fraud, including absentee and mail ballots, for those thinly-veiled accusations to work like they used to.
Some may think this is too “conventional” a process for a very unconventional candidate. Others may suspect that I’m just another establishment deep-stater looking to co-opt the Trump campaign. Oh, please. Take a deep breath or two with a paper sack. Some of us just want to win.
Maybe it is conventional, but it puts Trump on offense consistent with his call for us to “come together” to fix all that Biden and the Democrats have broken. Others will say that Trump needs some kind of “surprise” at the convention, and should save the veepstakes for that. There are plenty of other things Trump can do in Milwaukee to achieve that, from surprise speakers to policy proposals. Besides, Trump will want to make the convention about him and his agenda, not his running mate. He should also make it about the Democratic ticket and its parade of horribles.
While the media would no doubt like a very competitive GOP contest all the way to, and including, Milwaukee, they’re not going to get it. But a well-organized GOP and Trump campaign can “feed the beast” with many news making opportunities that crystallize the choice in November, while working to ensure we have an election with results we can trust.
Tall order, but we have a democratic republic to save. Even if we all don’t get our first choice as the Republican nominee. Get over it.
President Trump would be well-advised to do what Kelly Johnston and Hugh Hewitt are suggesting.
William Hamilton
Granby, 'CO
I'm holding out until New Hampshire before I throw in the towel. But your argument is pretty compelling.