The Most Interesting Election of 2022
Utah's US Senate race between Republican incumbent Mike Lee and "independent" Evan McMullin wins the prize, thanks to Mitt Romney. Part of a series on the 2022 elections
There are plenty of odd moments in the 2022 election season. Thus are the times.
New York Democrats played musical chairs following a topsy-turvy US House reapportionment debacle in the Empire State. The head of the House Democrats’ campaign committee, Sean Patrick Maloney, controversially bumped a progressive black incumbent out of one district and now finds himself in a “toss-up” race.
And then there’s Pennsylvania’s gubernatorial election, where Republican Doug Mastriano ought to be waltzing to victory on the heels of a deeply unpopular outgoing Democratic incumbent in a wave election year for Republicans. Nope.
But the prize goes to the Beehive State’s US Senate race, featuring two-term incumbent Mike Lee and his independent-but-Democrat-endorsed opponent, 2016 presidential candidate Evan McMullin.
You’d be forgiven for forgetting who Evan McMullin is. The ex-CIA employee, Utah native, and Morman ran for President as an independent in 2016. His strategy was convoluted. Knowing that Donald Trump was highly unpopular among Utah’s Morman voters and that they also would never support Democrat Hillary Clinton’s candidacy, he made a play for Utah’s six electoral votes, running as a “never Trump” Republican. He famously and furiously trolled for support from prominent conservatives.
With those six electoral votes, he was counting on a photo finish with neither Trump nor Clinton winning the requisite 270 electoral college votes to win the presidency outright, perhaps allowing him to “broker” the outcome based on his Utah victory.
Trump, of course, won with more than 300 electoral votes, despite losing the popular vote. And McMullin finished third in Utah with about 21 percent of the vote, less than half of Trump’s 46 percent and Clinton’s 27 percent. A smattering of independent and minor party candidates made up the rest. McMullin’s strategy went up in smoke.
Meanwhile, incumbent US Senator Mike Lee handily won a second term that year with 68 percent of the vote. Six years earlier, then-renegade Lee unseated incumbent Republican Bob Bennett. Lee, the son of former US Solicitor General Rex Lee, is also an author and arguably the Senate’s top constitutional and legal scholar. Mike Lee once clerked for Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito.
Fast forward six years later. McMullin is running as an independent and Democratic-endorsed candidate against Lee. He hopes to combine his 21.6 percent never-Trump Morman GOP vote from 2016 with a solid 27 percent base of Democrats, and a few more, to eclipse Lee.
And helping McMullin is none other than Lee’s junior Senate colleague, Mitt Romney.
No, Romney hasn’t “endorsed” McMullin. But he is the only Republican US Senator not to endorse the popular, mild-mannered, and respected Lee. From Utah’s Deseret News from March 4th:
As the U.S. Senate race in Utah heats up for one of the state’s two Republican senators, the other one is staying out of the fire.
Sen. Mitt Romney, who is not up for reelection, has so far not endorsed Sen. Mike Lee or any of the candidates challenging the two-term incumbent, and might not publicly back any of them.
Romney said no one in the race has approached him for his endorsement.
“I don’t think endorsements make any difference in a race to speak of. People in the race are my friends. I usually try and avoid situations where they’ve been friends. I may endorse and I may not, but I really haven’t given it any thought at this point,” he told Utah reporters in response to a question during a video press call Wednesday.
Romney said he’s not sure anyone is anxious for his support, adding, “I’m not sure my endorsement is a plus or a minus, so maybe that’s why no one is asking.”
Since, Lee has very publicly asked for Romney’s endorsement. He remains silent. And that silence has afforded McMullin a wedge to divide Republicans with support from Democrats. And it was a brilliant if somewhat desperate play by McMullin and Utah’s Democratic party to combine forces in hopes of denying the GOP a working majority in the 118th Congress.
McMullin has shifted his views from conservative to more “moderate” on various issues, including abortion (he now defends Roe v. Wade after claiming to be pro-life in 2016. McMullin is attacking Lee over a series of text messages he exchanged with White House staff after the 2020 election and before the January 6 chaos at the US Capitol. McMullin accuses Lee of conspiring with Donald Trump to overturn the results of the 2020 elections.
Those texts suggest no such thing. Lee investigated rumors of states submitting alternate slates of electors and reports of election irregularities and fraud. He found them wanting and not only voted to certify the election results, but spoke on the floor about the Senate’s limited “open and count” role in certifying the election results.
Some suggest that Romney, who voted to impeach Trump over the January 6th violence, is angry at Lee over those texts, support for Trump, and lack of concern over January 6th. Romney remains silent.
Funny thing: Lee supported Ted Cruz in the 2016 GOP presidential primaries, strongly opposed Trump’s nomination at the convention, and voted for Evan McMullin for President. Lee’s voting support for Trump is among the lowest of his GOP colleagues. Perhaps that irritates Utah’s most ardent Trump supporters.
In a Fox News Sunday interview with host Shannon Bream, Lee said his vote for McMullin was a mistake and that he would support the GOP nominee in 2024, including Donald Trump. Meanwhile, McMullin is making a play for Romney Republicans.
McMullin is looking to reprise his “broker” strategy in 2016 to leverage power as the Senate’s truly lone “independent.” There are two other registered Independents in the Senate, Vermont’s Bernie Sanders and Maine’s Angus King, but both caucus with Democrats and vote accordingly.
McMullin, for his part, has promised not to caucus with either party (which means he won’t get any committee assignments parceled out by each major party conference). But no one believes that. If the elections result in 50 GOP Senators, 49 Democrats, and independent McMullin, what will he do? If he stays genuinely “independent,” Republicans will control the Senate. But if he throws his vote to caucus with Democrats, no doubt equipped with juicy committee assignments and other commitments ($$$), Democrats will remain in charge. My money is on the latter.
After all, he’s the endorsed Democratic candidate. Endorsements don’t come for free.
Heady stuff for the ex-spook. But as a Senator without portfolio - a caucus of one - he could cause havoc on contentious, partisan issues, resulting in fawning, continuous media coverage. That would make for interesting drama.
But that’s unlikely to happen. Polling and other election dynamics strongly suggest Lee is going to be reelected. Perhaps not the 68 percent vote he won in 2016 or the 61 percent he scored in his first general election victory. But Utahns will ultimately not take their chances on a candidate who will help Joe Biden’s harmful agenda on inflation, gasoline prices, crime, immigration, and education. Especially a candidate whose views seem to shift dramatically based on his political strategy.
McMullin’s political team is full of Democratic consultants, including infamous Lincoln Project grifter Rick Wilson. He’s raising money through the Democrat’s online site, ActBlue.com, a lot of it. The state’s left-leaning media seems all on board the McMullin train, with fawning coverage of his endorsements and more. If this were a Democratic “wave” year like 2006 or 2018, I might feel differently about the possible outcome. But not this year.
It is more interesting how this plays out in 2024 and affects their working relationship.
When Romney’s term expires, I doubt he will seek reelection. He will face strong primary opposition if he does, and no shortage of solid and credible conservatives will line up to challenge him, including former US Rep. Jason Chaffetz. Lee, then, will be sitting in the catbird’s seat. In politics, what goes around, comes around.
