Tariffs, MAHA, FernGully, and Reality
Trump Administration shock and awe is wrecking lots of havoc. They should consider a better communications rollout.
One of the reasons that Joe Biden defeated Donald Trump (I know, I know) in 2020 is that a substantial number of voters were tired of the “chaos” and angry over the pandemic. Despite decent and improving economic numbers, from super-low inflation and affordable gasoline, Americans, tired of the media-hyped chaos, wanted a “return to normal.”
As the 2024 election proved, Joe Biden’s Administration proved anything but, from a wide open southern border with dozens of innocent Americans raped and murdered by illegal aliens, 40-year-high food prices, wasteful spending, corrupt self-dealing, public debt zooming to $36 trillion, and a war against traditional American culture and common sense. Americans voted for their chaos back, hoping Trump learned a few things during his political exile and could fix everything Biden and his team of Obama third-string incompetents and malevolents screwed up.
And they’re getting more than they bargained for after the first six weeks of the 47th President. Thanks to brilliant minds (I mean that) at the America First Legal Foundation and elsewhere (yes, even the Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025), Trump and others spent most of the last four years preparing for the next.
On January 20th, they came prepared. And most Americans are applauding. It’s what they voted for, including the breadth and depth of the DOGE roto rooter making its way full power through the deep, dense, and overgrown swamp that is Washington, DC.
Which, by the way, used to be genuinely swampy. Constitution Avenue in northwest Washington used to be a canal that led within a block of the White House. It was part of the Chesapeake and Ohio Canal and you’ll find the Lockeeper’s House at the corner of 17th Street and Constitution Avenue within sight of the White House and the Washington Monument. It’s open Thursday through Sunday mid-day.
What they didn’t vote for, necessarily, is the haphazard speed and use of chainsaws over scalpels and other precision instruments reduce the size and scope of government over the lives of everyday Americans. Errors and corrections are occurring by the hour, it seems. Some are okay, but some are helping write scripts for future Democratic campaign commercials.
But there’s way more to it than that. Of more consequence than cutting, maybe 1 percent of federal government civilian employment (somewhere between 20-29,000 jobs, depending on whose estimates you believe) are the tariffs and other significant policy changes that are will effect every one of us who eats or takes drugs - especially vaccines. Remember, there are between 2.2 and 2.4 million civilian federal employees. Cutting one percent of them doesn’t impress me very much, even as I sympathize with those losing their jobs. I’ve been there, along with every member of my family.
I’m a little surprised that panicked federal employees and their patrons haven’t resurrected the 1992 movie “FernGully, The Last Rainforest” which strikes me as synonymous, from their perspective, of their battle against the evil DOGE, led by Hexxus Elon Musk.
If you’ve not seen the movie, don’t blame yourself. The animated propaganda film was theatrical bust, a tale of cute mythical creatures from a magical rainforest defending against evil destructors. Watch this and ask yourselves - might federal employees see themselves this way against Hexxus Elon and his crew? I suspect the answer is yes. And they’d like you to agree. They’re special, and you owe them their enchanted lives.
Democrats in Congress are most certainly on board.
Then again, none of us ever felt entitled to our jobs and careers, nor see ourselves as cute, mythical creatures as much as we might like. We don’t see ourselves as divorced from real life. Bills and real life show up every day, we have to deal with it.
Elon may own X, but his and DOGE’s communications on their efforts leave much to be desired. They’re moving with such speed, often haphazardly, that there’s no way to manage much less prepare the media and the public on what they’re doing. Even the friendly conservative alt-media can’t keep up.
But while Democrats are seeking to demonize Musk as a threat to their power, most of us cheer for DOGE to expose, root out, and put an end to serious waste, fraud and corruption in government. What too few Democrats are realize is that we’re much more focused on the effect of tariffs and other policies that will hit us everytime we visit the grocery store.
Tariffs, not DOGE, is where Donald Trump and his Administration may hit a big, tall, hard, political wall bigger than anything they’ll construct at the US-Mexico border. Trump is using the tariffs as a negotiating ploy, and it may work. But he’s playing with fire and real bullets. Choose your metaphor.
The effect of Trump’s tariffs may never be felt. They were imposed (25%) on two of our biggest trading partners this week, Canada and Mexico, plus 10 percent on top of previous tariffs on China. But for a sense on how tariffs will soon hit American manufacturers, let’s consult my former employer, the Campbell Soup Company.
This is from Food Business News:
For the fiscal year, Camden-based Campbell’s now expects net sales growth of about 6% to 8%, down from a previous guidance of 9% to 11%, and organic net sales in a range of down 2% to flat, which compared to previous guidance of flat to a 2% increase.
“This updated guidance does not reflect any impact on our business from tariffs or other regulatory changes,” Beekhuizen said. “This is a fluid situation, and we are working through mitigation plans for a variety of scenarios.”
Tariffs would have a negative impact on soup since Campbell’s produces its products in the United States and sells it in Canada, he said. Tariffs also would impact cans negatively, since Campbell’s imports steel from Canada to use in the cans, and canola oil, since Campbell’s imports canola oil from Canada.
As with most other canned food-dominant manufacturers, tin-plate steel used to make cans for food don’t predominantly come from the US. They come from Canada, Europe (especially the Netherlands), and to a lesser extent, China. US steel makers don’t give a shit don’t care about tin plate steel, and don’t have the capacity to make it. Worse, US tin plate steel lacks the quality of Canadian and other sources (not China).
And while canola is grown in the US, Canada grows much more.
I’ve never seen the usually staid, boring food industry under such uncertainty and disruption. Not unlike the stress, uncertainty, and disruption felt by everyday Americans just trying to pay their bills.
Americans on tight food budgets often turn to less expensive canned foods to fill their pantries and their stomachs during tough times. And canned foods are not only among the safest parts of the food supply, but the longest lasting. Canned foods last at least two years, on average, from any degradations in quality, and even longer when it comes to safety. I’m one of those Americans that keep a big stash of Campbell Soup and other canned products in my pantry for everyday eating and emergencies.
And the cost of those products for “everyday Americans” will go up soon unless Trump finds a way to eliminate those tariffs and soon.
It’s even worse with Mexico, a major supplier of fresh produce, especially tomatoes for McDonald’s and other quick-serve chains, lettuce, peppers for salsa and other commodities. Florida, south Texas, Arizona, and California can’t grow enough produce fast enough to make up the difference.
If you’re shopping for blueberries these days, a personal favorite of mine, you won’t find them from New Jersey or Maine or anywhere else in America until summer. You will find them, however, from Peru and, more likely, from Mexico.
And then there’s the whole MAHA - Make America Healthy Again - movement, which includes replacing evil high fructose corn syrup with “real” cane sugar, not that your body notices a difference as it digests it. New Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. may want to make America healthy again, but many of his policies, if carried out, promise to disrupt food production and raise prices. I’m all for reforming our farm programs away from subsidies for corn and soybean production but it has to be done thoughtfully and gradually. And Congress will have a big say since a reauthorization of our farm “programs” is due this year. Watch this space.
There’s this state named Iowa that is the first presidential caucus/primary state for the 2028 presidential election. It’s huge farm state, known for corn and ethanol. Just ask them. And they have a big US Senate race in 2026 featuring incumbent GOP Senator Joni Ernst. Remind me where high fructose corn syrup comes from?
Where do you think most of the cane sugar currently used in soft drinks - where you can find it - comes from? Hola! Saludos desde México! America’s Soviet-style sugar program, which protects US sugar producers (mostly from Florida, but also other deep south states) from foreign competition, have already destroyed sugar mills throughout the Caribbean.
I noted that the trade deficit for the US jumped in January as American manufacturers and retailers stocked up in advance of tariffs. That means companies like Campbell Soup and others probably loaded up on tin plate steel cans and grocers bought Mexican blueberries and Canadian hothouse tomatoes before tariffs hit. And never mind the complications caused by tariffs on the highly integrated North American automobile manufacturing industry.
Parts (and ingredients for food) can cross the US-Canada or US-Mexico border several times before they find their ways into that Lexus or Kal Kan Pedigree pet food.
Which means if these tariffs hang on until Summer, you’ll really feel the impact of them at the grocery story. Tariffs, after all, are nothing more than taxes. And taxes are always passed along to the final consumer. That would be you.
Donald Trump, of course, knows this. He also knows that other countries are harder hit by our tariffs than we are, as the world’s largest consumer market by far. Counter-tariffs have some effect on some US companies, but nothing like they’re likely to experience. That’s why they’re bending over backwards to find a way to alleviate them.
And given the correction in the stock market - in which many union and other pension funds are invested - Trump feels that pressure, too. Canada and other may decide to play Trump’s waiting game as they prepare their constituencies for pain. That will be interesting.
By the time you read this, the Canada-Mexico tariffs may be gone. Certainly sooner than later. Trump doesn’t want the political consequence of even higher food and other retail prices resulting from his tariffs. They’re supposed to be a negotiating ploy.
That’s fine, but they’d better work quickly. And they’d better improve their communications of these actions for the American people, who are struggling enough with higher and higher food prices.
Storm clouds are on the horizon.
a;ways interesting