Ready for 2024? The Continuing Crisis, Knowns and Unknowns
After a string of challenging and forgettable years, will 2024 bring us sunshine after the storms? Don't count on it.
I have studiously avoided the annual charade engaged in by so many this time of year of making predictions. While I find a few fascinating, especially from experts, I often roll my eyes at most others. Many are based on people’s fears and hopes, often devoid of information, knowledge, and analysis that goes into scenario planning. They are often confused with assumptions and conspiracy theories and are about as valuable and rememberable as New Year’s resolutions.
But now, I’m surrendering and making up for lost time.
I’m reminded of the late Donald Rumsfeld’s memoir, “Known and Unknown,” published in 2011. The former Congressman, CEO, and George W. Bush’s Defense Secretary - the youngest and oldest person to have held the job, first under President Gerald Ford - is often best remembered for his four-part analytics.
Let’s follow Rumsfeld’s logic as we walk through the year ahead and make a few predictions. A year from now, assuming my laptop, Substack account, and ability to write are still around (a known unknown), we’ll assess how I did. I will focus on world affairs, domestic economy, culture, and politics. No sports, except that none of my teams will win a major championship, and only one will be in anything resembling a playoff game, and only one. These are sad years for my sports teams, including the Washington Capitals, Washington Nationals, Dallas Cowboys, and Oklahoma State University. The New Year will be no different—no Super Bowl, Stanley Cup, or World Series predictions from me, other than none of my teams will win. Or come close.
Let’s start with the known knowns - things we know we know.
Internationally, we know wars are going on in Ukraine and the Middle East. There are others, often resembling coups in various third-world nations and other places where there are historic rivalries, such as Azerbaijan and Armenia, Communist China and its “renegade province,” Taiwan, North and South Korea, and closer to home, the US and Cuba.
Now we venture into the unknown, known and otherwise: We will be in the same position today concerning China and Taiwan that we are in today. New leadership in Taiwan will cool down the rhetoric. But we will see a significant incident - resembling an accident or two - involving Chinese military actions with the Philippines or Japan over disputed islands. These will be jarring international events that will not escalate. At least two more countries will announce their withdrawal from China’s insidious “Belt and Road” initiative.
Russia and Ukraine
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will be winding down, with major diplomatic negotiations underway if not near conclusion. Putin has worn down the West’s resolve. Still, with Putin’s domestic situation beginning to unravel, demographically and economically, both sides want a conclusion. What’s it to look like? Ukraine won’t join NATO, and the regions under Russian control will be “autonomous zones” of Ukraine largely under Russian control. Crimea will stay in Russian hands. Europe will take the lead in helping rebuild Ukraine, but watch for China to take a surprising role, at Russia’s request.
Israel, Hamas, and Iran
A year from now, Israel will be negotiating with several countries, including in the Middle East, about rebuilding and “ruling” Gaza, having finally won its war with Hamas, what’s left of its leadership having scurried to Iran. But a major escalation of events in the Middle East, even involving Iran, will be narrowly avoided. China, a major customer of Iranian oil, will keep Iran in check, knowing that its oil fields could be wiped out quickly by Israel or the US. It will remain a tinderbox, and the US-Iran nuclear deal will remain dead.
Iran’s domestic politics will be roiled by its Supreme Leader for life, Ali Khamenei, either suffering a major health incident such as a debilitating stroke or passing away.
North Korea and Japan
North Korea will have a spectacular nuclear missile test failure that will cause an international environmental incident in the Sea of Japan. Japan will be in the throes of rebuilding its military and inviting US-controlled nuclear missiles on its soil. Biden will hem and haw and never decide. But Japan’s “self-defense” forces will continue to strengthen.
What Climate Change?
Internationally, climate change fanatics will continue to take major hits this year despite their perpetual gaslighting, unable to confront statistics that seas are not rising nor weather events are getting more “intense.” The ice extent at the North and South Poles will grow, China’s pollution and construction of belching coal plants will continue unabated as its economy continues to suffer under the weight of real estate failures and corruption, and the US economy will continue to get cleaner while their neighbors, especially Canada, continue to worsen. The weather isn’t going to change much or create much news other than a hurricane or two next fall, but that always happens. That’s a known known.
Canada and Suicide
Justin Trudeau will not be Canada’s Prime Minister a year from now, resigning instead of being forced into new elections over a “loss of confidence” vote. Canada will continue to lead the world in assisted suicide, which will emerge as a major scandal.
Dow Jones Races Past 40,000
There is little news weather-wise in 2024. Still, the Dow Jones Industrial Average will sail past 40,000 as the Federal Reserve Board, under pressure from the Biden Administration, will announce its first, if modest, interest rate cut after years of increases.
DEI Programs Fade
Domestically, things will continue to be worse, as erosion in faith in our major institutions will continue, along with a growing backlash against wokeism and progressives double down. At least one major corporation will announce the elimination of its Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion program, claiming that they have “served its purpose.” Job openings for DEI positions will continue to fall. Applications for enrollment at major colleges and universities will fall. Meanwhile, applications at schools such as Hillsdale College, Grove City College, and like-minded schools will skyrocket, along with enrollment in trade schools.
Gender issues will continue to roil as a backlash against surgery for minors will be outlawed in a growing number of states. Olympic swimmer Riley Gaines and her movement to protect women’s sports from biological males will also continue to advance. It will be an issue in presidential and congressional races.
So will the abortion issue, as more states narrowly pass public referenda to protect access to abortion. Still, they will fail in some states, also narrowly. However, it won’t be a deciding issue across the ballot.
Trump-Sanders 2024
Politically, we know there will be a national election in November, and lots of primary elections and a couple of political conventions leading up to it. Trump will narrowly win the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary, with less than 50 percent of the vote, thanks to his opponents splitting the vote (Haley and DeSantis in Iowa, Christie and Haley in New Hampshire). His primary opponents will drop out after he handily wins the South Carolina primary.
My possible political “Black Swan” moment: Parts or all of the Jeffrey Epstein “client list” will be leaked, and possibly released. It will roil politics in a handful of states and congressional districts and become an issue in the presidential contest, but not how you think. There may be a resignation or two from major government positions resulting from it.
I fear there will also be a real “black swan” moment, as CBS correspondent Catherine Herridge has suggested. More about that later.
Contrary to my previous predictions, Donald Trump and Joe Biden will be their party’s nominees, except this time, Trump will win but not trigger a big GOP wave down the ballot. There will be an effort to replace Biden and Harris on the ticket, but it won’t be successful due to fear of backlash from trying to dump Kamala Harris from the ticket. While the economy will improve, with lower inflation, lower gas prices, and rising productivity - the dollar’s strength will continue as a divided and do-nothing Congress stops spending big dollars.
As for Trump’s multiple lawsuits, two of the three will be dismissed, including New York and Georgia. The Florida lawsuit involving Trump’s handling of classified documents will remain unresolved but will force President-elect Donald Trump to answer whether he will pardon himself.
Meanwhile, Hunter Biden will be convicted of tax fraud. House Republicans will continue to find evidence of Joe Biden benefitting from his family influence-peddling scheme as quid-pro-quos are confirmed. However, they will not conduct a vote on an impeachment resolution, preferring to let the issue fester amidst the presidential contest while battling the Biden family and Justice Department for records and evidence. It will be a remarkable display of political discipline unknown among House Republicans.
In at least one poll near the election, most Americans will agree that President Biden probably broke the law and is corrupt. A slim majority will eventually say that he should be impeached.
“I’m Stuck With You”
Democrats will be forced to settle on an aging and infirm Biden who will continue to fumble and stumble to his basement during campaign season, forced to address corruption issues. American voters will continue to be appalled at his infirmities and inability to demonstrate effective leadership or even give a speech, continuing to blame him for their financial challenges despite a resilient economy. High prices will be to blame, along with growing crime and, of course, the border, where another million illegal immigrants will cross the border in 2024.
Terror in the US
Speaking of “black swan” moments, there will be at least one significant terror attack and a growing number of violent crimes in the United States specifically tied to the open southern border. They will happen in at least one major Democratic city, such as Chicago or New York, possibly Washington, DC. Terror cells will be exposed in multiple cities, including places with critical energy or technology infrastructure. Water supplies are especially vulnerable. I pray that I am wrong on this.
The cacophonous “No Labels” effort won’t cobble together a national ticket, unable to avoid stumbling over itself or getting on enough ballots in states to attract major nominees. But independent candidates Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Cornel West, and Green Party nominee Jill Stein will come surprisingly close to capturing a total of six or seven percent of the national vote, siphoning off more from Biden than a ticket of Donald Trump and Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders.
House Speaker Hakeem Jeffries
Another political prediction: Republicans will narrowly lose the House of Representatives thanks largely to court-forced redistricting efforts in New York, Alabama, and Louisiana, which will overcome some GOP takeover of a marginal Democratic open seat or two. But the Democratic margin in the House will be less than ten seats and probably closer to five.
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell
On the other hand, Republicans will win narrow control of the US Senate with victories in West Virginia (Gov. Jim Justice will overcome a surprisingly close GOP primary win over US Rep. Alex Mooney) and two and likely three of the following states: Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Montana. Democrats will regain Arizona as Independent Kyrsten Sinema loses to Rep. Reuben Gallegos. GOP nominee Kari Lake will scream vote theft and fraud. Again. Mitch McConnell will announce he is not seeking reelection in 2026. Still, he will complete his career as Senate Majority Leader with a 52-48 margin, and Vice President Huckabee-Sanders will sit in the President’s chair to break any ties.
Trump, who will behave better (more civilly) on the campaign trail in 2024, will fall short of 300 electoral votes while losing the popular vote again but more narrowly. Trump will win Pennsylvania, Georgia, Wisconsin, Arizona, and possibly one “surprise” state he lost last time (watch Nevada). However, many ticket splitters will vote for Democratic congressional candidates to keep him in check. The lack of Democratic enthusiasm for Biden-Harris will depress their turnout, but GOP turnout won’t be much higher. Trump’s wins will come from more votes from independents and higher-than-average strength from Hispanic and Black men, but not as much as current polls suggest.
My possible electoral upset this year is Michigan, where former GOP US Rep. Mike Rogers might pull off a major surprise in the US Senate race. Voters will favor serious candidates who resemble a “Return to Normalcy,” the theme of Warren G. Harding’s successful election a century ago following the Woodrow Wilson years.
Pennsylvania Democrats will finally be caught stuffing ballots (manufacturing phony mail ballots) in Philadelphia or Delaware counties, and controversy will swirl around election machinations again, especially on handling mail ballots. Maricopa County, Arizona, will continue to have major electoral issues. Georgia will not be an issue, having largely fixed its issues from 2020, as Trump, this time, wins somewhat handily.
Trump’s New Cabinet
Trump will announce that Mike Pompeo will return as his nominee for the Secretary of State and Robert O’Brien as his National Security Advisor. He will pluck at least one GOP House or Senate Member to serve in a key Cabinet position, likely Secretary of Defense. He will appoint at least two GOP primary rivals to key positions, but not former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (okay, that was an easy prediction). Watch for Vivek Ramaswamy to become Director of the Office of Management and Budget, his most controversial nomination. US Senator Tim Scott (R-SC) will reject an offer for a Cabinet position as he contemplates another run for President, as will Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and US Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), whom Trump will ask to serve as Attorney General.
And new House Speaker-designate Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY), under pressure from his “progressive” base, will announce plans for an impeachment inquiry of President-elect Donald Trump before either takes their new offices.
No Supreme Court justices will announce their retirement. That will happen in 2025. But more than one Republican will announce “exploratory campaigns” for the Presidency in 2028. Yes, before the end of 2024.
Politically speaking, the theme for the year will have two parts: our existing crises will continue as Americans look for a return to “normalcy.” They’re not likely to get it. But these predictions and a dollar (or two) might get you a cup of coffee.
Glad you tackled this behemoth. (I think you mean Robert O’Brien).
Happy New Year!
We shall see...