Polls, Commies, and Crowds

Every election is the "most important” one of our lifetime. Until the next one. In the meantime, three things need to be addressed. Over the next 78 days "decades will happen."

You hear it every four years. “This is the most important election of our lifetime!” It doesn’t matter which party. Both (all?) sides say it. Every day is either Halloween or Independence Day, perhaps New Year’s Day. But there’s no doubt that elections have consequences.

Until the next election, when it’s “deja vu all over again,” as the late Yogi Berra said.

For Democrats, it is about “saving our democracy,” which attracts everything from quizzical looks to eye rolls from Republicans. For those of us on the right, The Left© politicizing our system of justice to punish political opponents and fighting to take opponents off ballots doesn’t look very “democratic.” Democrats, meanwhile, point to GOP efforts to bolster election integrity, such as requiring photo ID to vote. “Voter suppression,” they scream. Never mind how easy it has become to vote over the past 50 years, including up to 50 days of early voting (see below) in Pennsylvania.

In fairness, some states require some form if ID to vote, not necessarily photo ID.

Democracy, at its simplest, is supposed to be “rule by the people.” What Abraham Lincoln said at Gettysburg, in the midst of a Civil War, was a government of, for, and “by the people.” But The People© are not ruling when they’re denied honest choices via free and fair elections. Democrats presuppose that their ideology and views represent a majority, but no poll I’ve seen confirms that. Only about a third of Americans identify with Democrats; nationally, non-affiliated voters rule by a narrow margin.

Elections used to resolve debates and choices, but nowadays, they seem to exacerbate them. Starting with the 2004 Bush reelection, Democrats began challenging elections in Congress. They did it again in 2016, and Republicans took their turn in 2020. Meanwhile, one of our most significant issues—trust and confidence in our elections—has taken a big and disconcerting hit, driven mainly by a drive for “voting by mail” during the pandemic and arbitrary changing or ignoring of election rules and procedures. We’ve moved from Election Day to “Election Season,” with early voting starting in three weeks in places like Pennsylvania (50 days before Election Day), followed shortly by South Dakota (46 days), Virginia, and Minnesota (45 days). Other states, such as North Carolina, allow you to begin requesting absentee ballots right after Labor Day.

This is your reminder that about 100 illegal immigrants on the official terrorism “watch list” have been released since the Biden-Harris border policies were implemented at our southern border, plus over 30,000 military-age Chinese men. You don’t suppose anything could happen between now and Election Day, do you?

For Republicans, it’s about saving the country they know and love, with dark predictions about 30 million or more immigrants crossing what used to be our southern border if Harris wins, significant middle-class tax increases (caused mainly by the expiration of some Tax Cuts and Jobs Act provisions or “Trump Tax Cuts” in 2025), and weakness abroad that invites more wars. The Democratic response, best encapsulated by former Democratic New York Governor Andrew Cuomo: “(America) was never that great.” Who needs Russian propaganda when you have a big-state American governor happy to echo your point of view?

Our media, the so-called “Fourth Estate” (our Legislative, Executive, and Judicial branches of government are the first three), is supposed to reinforce that simple view of Democracy by helping ensure we’re fully and fairly informed. Good luck with that these days, although the information is there. You need to look for it beyond the legacy media, which seems all-in on the censorship regime of our political elite, as evidenced by this very recent exchange between a Washington Post reporter and the White House press secretary.

Who knew the Post’s motto, “Democracy Dies in Darkness,” was their mission statement? (Hat tip to Hugh Hewitt.) And you wonder why it’s called “regime media.”

There’s a lot of projection - people accusing others of what they’re guilty of doing themselves. It takes a diligent and thoughtful consumer to discern it all, with many in the media pushing “vibes” over issues.

I have a few observations to share for Democrats and Republicans alike as we begin the Democratic National Infomercial today in Chicago. We’ll see if demonstrations (violence) from its antisemitic wing bring back memories of 1968, just a year after the Summer of Love.

Political Polling

Having spent parts of four decades working on GOP congressional and Senate elections, I’ve worked with and befriended several pollsters of. I respect them all. Most don’t do the public polling you’re feted with, usually sponsored or conducted by universities, the regime media, and a handful of others. They do the “inside polling” you never read about because the campaigns hire them. Those polls are confidential and way more valuable.

Candidates and campaigns know better than to rely on public polling. So should you.

We’ve been barraged with public polling, much of it worthless, since the Democratic Party coup in July when the party elite swapped out President Joe Biden for Vice President Kamala Harris. She’s ahead now, we’re told, but no one seems to be asking to see the polling methodology and cross-tabulations, or “crosstabs,” as we call them.

Take two polls last week, one by Emerson College and another by Rasmussen Reports, formerly owned (no longer) by Scott Rasmussen (he now runs RMG Research). Neither entity does polling for political parties or candidates.

Emerson’s August 12-14 poll gave Harris a 50-46 lead over Trump. Rasmussen’s August 11-14 poll gave Trump a 49-45 lead. Rasmussen polled 1,885 voters; Emerson 1,000, both respectable-sized samples. But if you think about it, most statewide surveys include a sample of 800 or so. A thousand polled nationwide equates to about 20 people polled per state, on average. California and New York will get more, obviously, but Wyoming? Good luck.

Some polls involve some guesswork, specifically trying to predict the demographics (age, gender, partisan affiliation, etc.) of the electorate. A well-drawn sample doesn’t require that but some will “weigh” specific demographics to match what they think the turnout will be. And the questionnaires matter a lot, including how and in what order you ask the questions.

I checked the crosstabs on the Emerson and Rasmussen polls this week. The Rasmussen poll breakdown included 33 percent Democrats, 32 percent Republicans, and the rest unaffiliated with either major party. That reflects the electorate. The Emerson poll included more Democrats (38 percent) and Republicans (35 percent), but it asked the questions differently and used different methodologies. I found the order of their questions. . . Weird.

According to Pew Research, unaffiliated voters slightly outweigh Democratic and Republican ones. Not to be ignored is an increase in new Republican voter registration in many states, including Arizona’s largest county, Maricopa; North Carolina; and Pennsylvania. Even in Orange County, California.

That’s not to say one poll is more “accurate” or better than the other. Both are snapshots in time based on whom they contacted. The value of each declines every minute after it’s published. And neither is very valuable at this stage, other than to indicate the election is a jump ball.

This is going to be a very challenging election for polling, given all the dramatic events that have happened during the past two months, from the first and only Trump-Biden debate to the Biden-Harris switcheroo to the assassination attempt on Trump and more, some of it driven by events overseas. Then, there is the polling rejection rate—I’m told upwards of 90 percent of Americans reject phone calls from pollsters—to the under-counting of Trump voters. And never mind the dramatically changing media landscape, thanks partly to AI.

And we ain’t seen nothin’ yet. Anyone looking for a “normal” election will be deeply disappointed. Vladimir Lenin once said, “There are decades where nothing happens, and there are weeks where decades happen.” Over the next 78 days, I expect decades will happen. Suppose you’re undecided or open to changing your mind and would rather have the full panoply of information going into the election’s final “day,” from debates to sentencing trials. In that case, you should vote in person on Tuesday, November 5th. Never mind that Donald Trump’s Secret Service detail is still a mess.

Advice: Ignore every public poll from now until early voting starts next month, especially those tied to universities. Then, begin ignoring them again a week or so before Election Day. That’s when some of the worst polling is published, Also, focus on state polling, not national.

“Communism” versus the Price of a Thanksgiving Meal

Many on the right have responded to Harris’s coronation as the Democratic nominee, focusing on the more extreme parts of her long-standing political agenda. Her call on Friday for price controls over groceries, among other items, sent the meme makers into overdrive.

Frank Luntz, the author, pollster, strategist, and communications pro I’ve known for more than 30 years, has good advice for the GOP: Trump and Republicans would be better off talking about affordability, solutions to the high cost of living, and the cost of a Thanksgiving meal than calling Harris a Communist.

Harris on Friday waded into the policy fray with solutions of her own, including price controls on groceries, a $6,000 per infant (up to age 1) child tax credit, and a $25,000 cash gift (at taxpayer expense) to first-time home buyers to help make a down payment on the purchase of a new home. While even the Washington Post opined negatively, she’s at least offering solutions, bad as they are, to cash-strapped Americans.

Republicans and conservatives have better ideas on how to address inflation, along with immigration and conflicts abroad (Israel), but yelling “Communism” and “Socialism” are non-starters, especially for struggling younger voters who have no clue what those terms mean (thanks, public school systems). Some actually believe what Gov. Tim Walz says: “One person’s socialism is another person’s neighborliness.” And he intends to be very neighborly when he takes power.

“Thanks for the power mower. I’ll take your SUV and the house now, thank you very much, but you can use them. For now.” That’s Socialism. Or, Walz’s definition of “neighborliness,” when he’s not reporting you to the HOA for not cutting your grass. Oh, wait, he runs the HOA.

Maybe Trump and his campaign could stop flailing around and start rolling out elements of their economic, immigration, and national security plans. I know they have them. They (he) need the discipline and structure to promote them consistently and repeatedly, with well-crafted videos, events, and use of surrogates in key states (Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and I would add Nebraska’s Second Congressional District, Maine’s First, New Hampshire, and maybe Virginia). Perhaps they’re waiting until after Labor Day, when people are home from vacations, back to work, and the kids are back in school.

Crowd sizes

Crowd sizes at political rallies are a barometer for campaign enthusiasm and organizational strength. It’s challenging to mobilize people to take hours out of their day, travel several miles (sometimes a lot), park, wait in line to clear magnetometers, and wait in the summer heat for your candidate to speak. Then there’s the process of getting home.

Sometimes, people don’t make it home.

But Trump’s and the media’s obsession with crowd sizes, no matter for whom, is bordering on stupid. Average Americans don’t relate and don’t care. A recent Harris rally in Detroit and others elsewhere have drawn accusations, countered by so-called “fact checkers,” that AI was used to bolster crowd sizes.

I don’t know, but it’s a bizarre obsession. Besides, given advances in AI, you’d be wise to cast a hairy eyeball at any photo you see on the internet.

I remember a pre-election rally outside of Philadelphia right before the November election in 2012, just after “Superstorm Sandy” crushed New Jersey’s shore days before. GOP nominee Mitt Romney attracted an estimated 30,000 people. He was attracting large crowds everywhere he went while losing in an electoral landslide to Barack Obama.

In 2020, Joe Biden didn’t hold traditional rallies. During the pandemic, he held bizarre car rallies or had staff draw socially distant circles where the Democratic faithful could sit to hear their candidate. This is poorly compared to Trump’s large and raucous crowds.

Remind me who won again. Never mind voter integrity, a topic we’ll discuss as we get closer to the election. There’s no doubt bad things happened in several states leading up to the 2020 election, and hand-to-hand combat is underway in a few of them right now leading up to November 5th. It matters this election, and fundamental things are afoot.

Ultimately, voters seek solutions and hope, starting with their maxed-out credit card bills. Crowd sizes and Communism are unlikely to be on the minds of many voters, especially people who are undecided or might change their minds. Many live paycheck to paycheck and are worried about crime, illegal immigrant and otherwise, and what’s being fed to their kids at school, not just the food.

Not every day between now and Election “Day” needs to be Halloween or April 15th. A little July 4th or New Year’s Day would be nice.