Let the Experiment Begin
It was a matter of time before an elected official chose independence over the major parties. Tulsi Gabbard and now Kyrsten Sinema will show us if it works, at least in Arizona.
A few of us have observed for years that the political playing field is increasingly ripe for a new “third way” in American politics.
A few of us have also observed that the percentage of Americans identifying as “independent,” eschewing the two major parties, is on the upswing. As my friend and GOP political analyst David Winston has noted, 31 percent of Americans voting on November 8th identified with neither Democrats nor Republicans. A growing body of voters rejects what they see as noisy and extreme - if not ineffectual - voices in both parties. In some states, independents outnumber Democrats and Republicans.
There have been attempts in the past by a candidate or two to navigate that course, but their raison d'être was often to reject one party, not necessarily to embrace a new course. That has been true of the most recent notable national party splits, including Andrew Yang and Tulsi Gabbard.
Those two and now US Sen. Kyrsten Sinema offer us three different trailblazing strategies. But Sinema’s, for now, is the most consequential. Unlike former failed presidential candidate Yang, who is trying to forge a new centrist political party, or Gabbard, another failed presidential candidate and former House member, Sinema sits in a deeply divided US Senate.
Sinema is now the third registered Independent in the US Senate. The other two are Bernie Sanders (VT) and Angus King (ME). Both behave and reliably vote as Democrats and have always caucused with them. All three, interestingly, are on their state’s respective ballots in 2024.
Sinema’s switch may have immediate consequences. It won’t change the balance of power in the US Senate. But if she wishes to retain or seek committee assignments, she must caucus with one or the other party. If she caucuses with Democrats, nothing happens. If she chooses to caucus with the GOP, the Senate returns to an even split of 50 Democrats and 50 Republicans, resulting in committees with even ratios. She could also choose to caucus with neither but lose committee memberships, and who knows where her desk would be located on the Senate floor.
Other outcomes are possible but hard to imagine, including both parties allowing her to sit as an independent member of certain committees. It would be new territory for the Senate, although party breaks and changes have occurred throughout its history, most notably the late Wayne Morse (R-I-D Oregon). When the iconoclastic Morse famously broke with the GOP in 1953, he insisted on his Senate desk being located in the center of the chamber. Senate Democratic Majority Leader Lyndon Johnson eventually persuaded Morse to join his party. Morse lost reelection in 1968 and lost two subsequent attempts to return. He died in 1974.
Let the bidding wars begin. And don’t be surprised if another Senator or two joins her. After all, newly-reelected Nancy Murkowski (R-AK) has had issues with her party throughout her Senate career, and who knows what West Virginia’s Joe Manchin (D-WV) might do. Manchin has famously sided with Sinema to preserve the Senate’s filibuster, but his support for much of the Biden spending agenda has angered his increasingly Republican state. At age 73, most expect he’ll retire from office in 2024. His approval ratings are in the tank.
Sinema’s decision was no surprise, given the hostile response she’s garnered from Arizona Democrats upset with her refusal to torpedo the Senate’s “filibuster,” which requires a 60-vote supermajority to end debate and act on legislation. It isn’t the only policy or political issue she’s broken with Democrats. Her state party censured her in 2021 after she voted to block a highly partisan and likely unconstitutional federalization of elections, a partisan Democratic priority. It’s a break that’s been long coming. Progressive activists even followed her into a bathroom stall to harass her.
Sinema was guaranteed to face serious opposition for her previous party’s nomination for a second term in 2024, likely from US Rep. Rueban Gallegos (D-AZ), who has been openly critical of her. She’s also largely unwelcome in a state GOP that is currently in the grips of a heavily pro-Trump faction that has been blamed for narrow electoral losses for the US Senate (Blake Masters) and Governor (Kari Lake).
Arizona also has a history of trailblazing Senators with stubborn independent streaks, including the legendary late Barry Goldwater (R-AZ) and, most recently, the late John McCain (R-AZ). Democratic former Gov. Bruce Babbitt ran unsuccessfully for the Democratic nomination for President, as did the late US Rep. Morris Udall (D-AZ). Arizona has had its share of notable elected officials. Sinema is undoubtedly familiar with that heritage, but no one has successfully navigated an independent course to win an election.
Kyrsten Sinema may be the first. I would not rule it out, especially with both major parties likely to nominate, again, candidates from their fringes. She enjoys support from the powerful business community.
There are lots to play out here. Sinema blazes a new trail in Arizona politics and given the state’s dramatic population growth over the past 50 years (mostly from Californians), she has a plausible path to victory. She may also prove the old Senate dictum that one Senator can make a difference, depending on whom she chooses to caucus with anyone. She doesn’t necessarily have to belong to a committee, although that’s where much of the work is conducted on issues she cares about, including Arizona land and water.
Yang is choosing to create a new political party, “Forward.” At the same time, Gabbard left her party of its wokeness and spent much of the fall endorsing Republicans while becoming a Fox News contributor. Both have left elective politics for now. Unless she chooses to retire from elective politics in 2024, Sinema becomes the first to signal whether this new path is lit with electoral success or a train headed in the other direction.