Incompetence or. . . Intent?

Does Hanlon's Razor Apply to Biden's Debacle in Afghanistan, Among Other Events?

Hanlon’s Razor, attributed to computer programmer Robert J. Hanlon, is "Never Attribute to Malice That Which Can Be Adequately Explained by Incompetence."

It correlates to Occam’s Razor: when faced with competing explanations for the same phenomenon, the simplest is likely the correct one. Both rules of thumb point to the simplest of explanations, with the fewest assumptions, the most likely cause.

But let’s face it: President Biden and his Administration’s handling of our withdrawal in Afghanistan was so mind-numbingly stupid and inept that it boggles the minds of rational people. Are our experts and our President this incredibly incompetent? Any Second Lieutenant could have better planned, organized, and implemented this “retrograde” action, as it’s called in the military. Most any legislative assistant in a freshman congressional office would have recommended a different strategy for withdrawal that started with civilians and vetted Afghan interpreters, before the military, months earlier.

And what political genius thought that it was wise to time the end of American involvement with the 20th anniversary of 9/11, a solemn day, with some “victory” message? “Look! We returned Afghanistan to the way it was on 9/11” is not a winning message.

That not one of the senior military or civilian officials responsible for this calamity have resigned for their fatal errors or in protest of terrible judgment by their superiors puzzles this observer. Maybe some will.

Everything The Left said Donald Trump was and would do, from failing to consult allies to being imperious and impervious to facts and sound judgment, is now personified by Joe Biden. No wonder they’re so silent these days.

I don’t know who said this, but it is permeating through the conservative blogosphere: “You cannot screw up a country this bad in seven months unless it is on purpose.” Feel free to buy the t-shirt.

One invites ridicule and abuse when suggesting such nefarious thinking - conspiracy theory! But is it a “conspiracy theory” if there’s evidence for it?

As Christian theologian and blogger Douglas Wilson has opined, there have been three events over the past couple of years, the handling of which boggle the mind. The use or abuse of the COVID pandemic to change election rules made it easier to cheat and for errors to occur; the January 6th Capitol riots, or more specifically, the overreaction to it (over 25,000 National Guard troops were activated to protect the Capitol,10 times more than the troops Donald Trump left for Joe Biden in Afghanistan last January to keep the Taliban under control), along with 3 square miles of security fencing and concertina wire - for months; And now, Afghanistan. As for the first example, Wilson says it better than me.

The alleged COVID emergency was used to set aside longstanding election laws and procedures, and introduced a whole new way of voting, in the middle of a crisis, without any of the established safeguards. An emergency was used to justify doing something novel in an important national election, something we had never done before, and on the spur of the moment. In some cases, the emergency was used to justify flagrant violations of existing law, and then SCOTUS declined to hear anything about it—because other states that wanted fair national elections didn’t have “standing.” If this keeps up, another thing that won’t have standing for very long is the Republic. You can’t have standing if you no longer are standing.

And speaking of election laws, look at what House Democrats are trying to do with our elections now. And never mind the shenanigans going in California in advance of their September 14th recall election of Gov. Gavin Newsom. Grand theft of an election may be in process.

Wilson’s second example is January 6th at the US Capitol, or more accurately, the aftermath:

The second striking example of this play being run is the reaction to and the rhetoric about the January 6 riot at the Capitol. Let me go on the record (yet again) by saying that the Capitol breach on that day was a travesty. In fact, the whole point of this post is to try to head off a similar travesty on a national level. “C’est pire qu’un crime, c’est une faute” It was worse than a crime; it was a blunder.

The reason it was a blunder is that it gave the regime plausible cover for a draconian over-reaction on stilts and steroids, and the last thing we should give them is plausible cover for anything. The Capitol is now surrounded by barbed wire, four Capitol policemen on duty that day have since committed suicide, the authorities won’t release the thousands of hours worth of surveillance footage that would show what actually happened, which we are apparently too stupid to see, and the DHS thinks you might be a terror threat if you say merry Christmas too loudly. And the reason they are getting away with these absurdities is because they are responding to “the biggest threat” our nation has faced “since the Civil War.”

I swear, sometimes I think these people are trying to make the cat laugh.

And then there’s the contra-judicial manner by which the so-called “insurrectionists” have been treated by law enforcement. Many have been held in solitary confinement since their arrests months ago. Journalist Julie Kelly has written extensively about it at American Greatness. No one has credibly challenged her work, at least that I’ve seen. Even two Democratic US Senators have raised concerns about how some of those arrested from January 6th are being treated.

And if you really want tin-foil hats thrown at you, mention the Cloward-Piven strategy. Written in 1966 and published in The Nation, it proposed ending poverty by overwhelming existing welfare programs through aggressive community organizing, chaos, and turmoil to force a socialist reset.

The result of all this, of course, is that Americans are either numb or angry. Put me in the latter camp. The question is, what are we to do about this? After all, the midterm elections aren’t for another 15 months, twice the duration of the Biden-Harris Administration thus far. That's a long time; what other calamities await?

Let’s take inventory.

An invasion of Taiwan by communist China? A nuclear-armed Iran? One cannot imagine Kim Jong-un wanting to miss out on all fun and games.

And those are just foreign policy examples. We're in for an exciting Fall and Winter domestically. Congress is likely to pass a massive $3.5 trillion or whereabouts welfare spending bonanza on top of a badly flawed $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill. The former will include enormous tax increases, including an end to “step-up basis,” which will force the sale of family farms and long-held private businesses. Oh, and don’t forget our southern border. Did someone mention overwhelming social welfare programs and systems?

And inflation is already a reality. Some food and fuel prices have increased upwards of 30 percent over the past year. Food makers and other manufacturers are struggling with shortages of inputs and logistical challenges coupled with higher prices and not much “pricing power” to maintain their profit margins. And many state governments continue to pay people not to work.

Don't forget about the upcoming congressional battle over increasing the federal debt limit. Or the continued politicization of the pandemic. Cancel culture continues unabated. Civil liberties remain under assault, and major banks are beginning to implement a social credit system to rid “undesirable” customers from their clientele. You know, like a retired US Army general.

Fun times! How bad can it get? Pay attention to what's been happening in Australia and even Canada. Australia, in particular, has been standing up to China while at the same time behaving more like them.

We can fight back in smart ways. But not stupid ones, like the idiotic jaywalk through the Capitol on January 6th. Black Lives Matter, anarchists, and Antifa activists can foment violence and injure police. Still, the Department of Homeland Security tells us that our greatest domestic threat is violence from white supremacists and people resisting vaccine mandates. You cannot make this stuff up. Face it; we do have a two-tiered system of justice.

Resist. Get your children out of government schools if possible. Peacefully protest. Make your voice heard. Hold people accountable. Stop supporting companies that kowtow to violent groups and support woke nonsense. Support causes that reflect your values. Vote with everything at your disposal, including your feet and your money. There may be some inconveniences. Ally with like-minded people. They’re out there. Support each other. It’s not hard to find out what most Americans think and believe. They need to connect, inspire each other, and organize. Smartly. Let Martin Luther King be your guide.

Just don't be stupid. There’s plenty of that to go around in the Biden Administration.

We shall overcome.