Has Donald Trump Hit His Expiration Date?
Post-election reporting and polling suggests that ardent Trump supporters are ready for a new generation of leadership
Most food packages come with one of two expiration dates. One says “best if used by” a date after which the quality slowly declines. The second one says “use by” or “expires by,” after which the product may be hazardous to your health.
It appears that Donald Trump may have hit his political expiration date. It is hazardous to the health of the Republican Party to nominate him for another White House run.
A couple of days ago, this intrepid opinion journalist, an admitted GOP partisan, suggested it was time for a “family discussion” following the awful 2022 elections. It received twice the number of hits than my usual posts.
Since then, real journalists, such as Salena Zito (New York Post, Washington Examiner, etc.), have done the real work of talking to rank-and-file voters and grassroots party leaders, especially in her home state of Pennsylvania. The Keystone State was ground zero for much of the disaster that the GOP experienced on Tuesday and now politically resembles Hiroshima after August 9, 1945.
Hearing his bragging and big talk in the final days before the election, voters across the US feared certain Trump-backed candidates would be beholden to him or continue his rhetoric of election denial and either voted Democratic or left the top of the ticket blank despite their dislike of President Biden.
Another round of Trumpism was a bridge too far for them. They were exhausted.
JD Vance, who won a US Senate seat in Ohio, is the only high-profile Trump-backed candidate who prevailed Tuesday night. Meanwhile, Trump’s choice of candidates for Senate in Georgia, Arizona, and New Hampshire could cost the Republicans control of the upper chamber of Congress, which they were expected to clinch. Even his gubernatorial pick in Michigan, Tudor Dixon, lost to incumbent Democrat Gretchen Whitmer, who was unpopular for her lockdown policies during the pandemic, which was among the strictest in the US.
It all adds up to a disaster for Trump. A Pennsylvania father of two grown men of voting age told me all three of them are done with him after years of loyal support.
“Trump needs to disappear,” said the voter, who asked not to be named. “He got us Oz over McCormick in the primary who would have won by at least by five points. In fact, most of the failures in last night’s midterms tie back to Trump.”
The communications professional said he still liked Trump’s policies and has long managed to overlook his crassness. “Then he made the DeSantis comment and we are all done in our family with him. It is becoming very clear it’s about Trump first, not the conservative movement.”
A couple of very smart Pennsylvania political operatives I know and respect, Matt Brouillette and Josh Novotny, among others, weighed in with the Philadelphia Inquirer this week.
“If anything should be taken away from this election, it’s that we should be over Trump. If you’re not a Never Trumper yet, you should be an Over-Trumper now,” said Matthew Brouillette, the head of Commonwealth Partners, an influential conservative group in the state. “He had his moment in the sun for four years, and it’s time for him to retire from politics.”
Josh Novotney, a Republican operative in Philadelphia, said there’s been widespread blame on Trump within GOP circles after the party lost marquee races for governor and U.S. Senate, all three of the state’s competitive U.S. House races, and possibly the state House.
Trump’s presence, several Republican leaders said, continues to motivate Democrats, and his endorsements have elevated flawed candidates who fit his personal piques.
“I’ve even heard in very Trump parts of the city and the state that he is an albatross, he is hurting us, and he needs to go,” Novotney said. “We can’t win races if he continues to be the head of the party.”
The party’s national committeeman in Pennsylvania, Andy Reilly, said Trump’s late rally in Westmoreland County and hints he would soon announce another run for president weren’t helpful.
“His presence, I think, helped the Democrats’ claims about a threat to democracy,” Reilly said, though he argued those claims were overblown. “It was not constructive for the president to be hinting about his announcement.”
All spoke after Sen. Pat Toomey (R., Pa.) on Wednesday night laid his party’s weak midterm showing at Trump’s feet, saying his endorsements led the party to nominate candidates in his own mold — ones who underperformed.
Trump’s penchant for insulting-but-catchy monikers hit a low point before the election when he pegged Florida’s Governor, Ron DeSantis, as “Ron DeSanctimonious,” at his rally in western Pennsylvania. It didn’t play well with many conservative pundits who have largely defended Trump in the past.
Conservative columnist and author Kurt Schlichter also criticized Trump’s latest name-calling. "The biggest favor you can do Donald Trump is to tell him he stepped on his crank yesterday and to stop being undisciplined and saying stupid things," he tweeted.
More from Business Insider:
Tim Young, a conservative author, radio host, and critic, chimed in as well. "There was no good reason for Trump to attack DeSantis last night," he tweeted.
"What has Ron DeSantis done to earn Trump's scorn here right before an election?" tweeted Scott Morefield, a writer for Townhall. "It's inexcusable and just shows this has always been about him."
"Needs work," Ben Domenech, the editor at large for The Spectator and a Fox News contributor, tweeted about the nickname.
"Nothing like trashing a Republican Governor 4 days before Election Day when his name is on the ballot. #team," wrote Josh Holmes, a Republican strategist who formerly ran Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell's campaign.
These are not “Never Trumpers” from The Dispatch, The Bulwark, the Lincoln Project, or the National Review. Far from it.
This isn’t new, by the way. An interesting bipartisan poll conducted by Democrats at Hart Research and Republicans at Public Opinion Strategies for NBC last May was a warning sign that Trump’s appeal among Republicans was waning.
“…a poll released by NBC News/Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies showed that a significant chunk of Republican primary voters actually prefer that someone else would take the reins of leading their party. The survey found that a third (33 percent) of Republican primary voters believe Trump was a good president, but that it's time for new leaders. An additional 10 percent said Trump was a bad president and it is now time for their party to move on.”
That closely mirrors the poll results I published from Florida the other day, conducted just before the election. That survey showed that 43 percent of voters were “much less likely” to support candidates seen as favoring Trump. Four percent more were somewhat less likely to support Trumpian candidates.
Especially telling were comments yesterday from Virginia’s Lt. Gov., Winsome Sears, a conservative firebrand popular with the rank and file and who campaigned for Trump in 2020.
Virginia’s Lt. Gov. Winsome Sears (R) joined the growing list of Republicans on Thursday who say they won’t support a 2024 presidential run by Donald Trump.
Sears made the comments in a Fox Business interview, where she lauded Trump’s Oval Office accomplishments related to black unemployment, education, and public safety, but said that the results of the 2022 midterm elections indicate that voters “want a different leader.”
“I could not support him. I just couldn’t,” Sears told host Neil Cavuto.
“The voters have spoken, and they’ve said they want a different leader,” Sears, a former US Marine, told Cavuto.
In all candor, this will not encourage Trump to exit the stage. If anything, it will egg him on. Perhaps more persuasive are the comments made by former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, a strong supporter and advisor to the former President. The Washington Examiner:
Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich said Wednesday that he believes former President Donald Trump may be reconsidering his plans for another presidential run.
Gingrich's suspicions come after the Republican Party experienced disappointing results in the 2022 midterm elections, with many Trump-endorsed Republican candidates, such as Pennsylvania Senate candidate Dr. Mehmet Oz and Michigan gubernatorial candidate Tudor Dixon, falling short of victory on Tuesday night.
"I mean, just in my own emails today, [with] the number of people who want somebody other than Trump who have decided, literally overnight, that person is going to be DeSantis, he's going to find it almost impossible to avoid running," Gingrich told Just the News. "I think Trump's got to look at the results and be troubled."
The former speaker said he knows Trump is a "very, very smart man" who worked "very hard" leading up to the election by attending multiple rallies. However, in light of the outcome of the midterm elections, many Republicans have shifted their focus to Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) as the front-runner for 2024.
Trump is supposed to announce his 2024 presidential campaign on Tuesday. Of less importance than what Trump thinks is how his ardent supporters are feeling and thinking these days.
Some Trump supporters are buying the spin that the vast majority of candidates Trump endorsed - over 200 - won on Tuesday. But that is weak sauce compared to the flawed candidates his endorsement pushed over the top in GOP primaries and who infamously crashed on election day, even losing to genuinely flawed Democratic candidates like mentally impaired stroke victim John Fetterman and Arizona’s horrifically incompetent Secretary of State Katie Hobbs (that may change, since votes are still being counted there). From Market Watch:
This cycle, Trump did not widely endorse candidates in highly competitive races. Of the 187 congressional candidates he endorsed in the general election, only eight Senate and 16 House districts were rated as lean or tossup by CPR.
Among those 16 House endorsees, only two have so far won election, according to AP race calls: Republicans Anna Paulina Luna in Florida and incumbent Ashley Hinson in Iowa, both of whose races leaned Republican. Eight others lost their elections, six of which were in tossup races and the other two of which leaned Democratic.
Of the remaining six Trump-backed congressional candidates whose races have not yet been called by the AP, only two — Zach Nunn in Iowa and Ryan Zinke in Montana — are currently in the lead. Both seats were rated as lean Republican by CPR.
The other five House candidates endorsed by Trump trail by an average of 10 points, with the furthest behind being Alaska Republican Sarah Palin, who is trailing Peltola by 20 points. That race is likely headed to a ranked-choice second-round tabulation. The closest race is that of five-term Rep. David Schweikert in Arizona, who trails Democrat Jevin Hodge by 2 points.
That means Trump’s general-election endorsement rate in competitive House races this cycle would be, at best, 50%. If all the candidates who are currently leading in their races were to win, that rate would drop to 25%. (Emphasis added)
Another retort from Trump loyalists is that Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) failed to support MAGA candidates or hit their opponents through his independent leadership political action committee, the Senate Leadership Fund. But that is wrong. Conservative Atlanta radio host and blogger Erick Erickson:
Over the past year, Mitch McConnell funded the races of men who had pledged to throw him out of the Republican leader’s slot. Lindsey Graham campaigned with America First MAGA candidates who had used him as a punchline. And Republican donors who hate Trump wrote big checks to help Trump’s candidates get elected.
The only people attacking the GOP from inside the GOP right now are Donald Trump, Liz Cheney, and Adam Kinzinger. The latter two are finished in politics. The former wants back in.
I respect Trump and his supporters. I voted for him twice before and would be willing to do so again as our party’s nominee in 2024. But his strongest supporters need to ponder why Democrats are salivating for him to run again, even more so than them. The reality is there for all to see. It’s time to embrace the late William F. Buckley’s sage advice: vote for the most conservative candidate who can win.
Complaining as many do about Trump, it is essential to remember that many grassroots Republicans take him, his advice, and his endorsements to heart. And Trump-endorsed candidates won a lot of GOP primaries this year. Those votes came from a lot of people. He’s still the 800-pound gorilla within the GOP.
As one blogger opined at Ricochet.com, a conservative blog site at which I also post:
There is an expiration date on politicians. This is less so for legislative politicians since they can blend back into the mass group of other legislators, but not so for the executive leaders, and especially the President of the United States or whether one wants to be President. Like it or not, and it may be unfortunate, Donald Trump has passed his expiration. I take no glee in it. I will vote for him again if he wins the primary, but I sure hope he doesn’t.
Trump has earned a moniker of his own: Toxic Trump.
Past his expiration date... excellent turn of phrase to describe the situation (and I'm replying now the day after Trump announced his 2024 candidacy). The election is in two years. Why is he announcing now? He doesn't even know who his Democrat opponent will be, much less his Republican primary challengers. My guess is that it feeds his giant ego to think of himself scaring off potential primary competitors before they ever announce. I voted for him twice, I'm utterly done with him now. Utterly.