Handicapping the US House Speaker Contest
Eight current House members represent the next round of GOP Speaker wannabes. Let's handicap the contest and share some insights about the ultimate inside baseball.
Sean Hannity made a colossal mistake, born of the hubris of being a successful longtime radio and television talk show host.
He waded into a contest for a congressional conference leadership election, this one for Speaker of the House. He more than waded into it - he busted through the door, guns blazing, and did as much damage as the despised Matt Gaetz (R-FL) in destroying US Rep. and Judiciary Committee Chair Jim Jordan’s (R-OH) nascent and ill-fated campaign to succeed the wrongfully deposed Kevin McCarthy, not by opposing Jordan but by supporting him in counterproductive ways.
Staff for Hannity’s Fox News program sent an ill-advised and heavy-handed email to Jordan’s House opponents that badly backfired, coupled with threatening messages to a handful of “moderate” House members. Support for Jordan’s candidacy shrank with each succeeding vote. Over 100 House GOP conference members voted to vacate Jordan as their “Speaker-designate.” Ouch.
Some ignoramuses thought this outside pressure campaign “worked,” citing Jordan’s ability to turn a few previous opponents. Hardly. They have no idea how internal leadership races work and how deeply personal they are. When becoming a Senate GOP leadership aide in 1992, I remember being quickly advised that no one - not staff, lobbyists, former Senators, or the public - interjects themselves in leadership elections.
But like it or not, thanks to social media, the public “campaigns” are well underway, as much against as for any specific candidates. I can’t imagine any of them being successful, but they serve as organic “opposition research” that may “inform” certain House Republicans concerned that they could be found guilty by association. More about this shortly. With roughly a third of House Republicans living and sleeping in their offices on Capitol Hill, showering in the House gym to start their day, many spend their post-campaign fundraising receptions and dinners late in the evening doom scrolling on social media.
There’s nothing quite like these contests. High school officer races come closest, where no issues separate or distinguish the candidates beyond their resumes and who are, in reality, friends and allies. They’re better known by who their friends are and what they do when they hang out.
With the failed candidacies of Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA) and now Jordan, the field is open. Nine candidates have placed their names in nomination - all good people with varied resumes, backgrounds, experiences, and skill sets.
Here’s the full list, but attention should be focused on maybe three or four of them, barring any surprises:
Make that eight. As of this writing, Meuser has just dropped out.
I admit I don’t know any candidates well. I’ve met a couple. Besides Scott (elected in 2010) and Sessions (elected to his first of three different congressional districts in 2006), they’ve all been in office for less than ten years. That in itself is notable but not without precedent. Freshman Democratic-Republican Henry Clay (KY) was elected Speaker in 1811. Then again, our Constitutional Republic was a whopping 22 years old. Things have changed.
But having spent a few years on the staff of three House Members and having helped elect a dozen or so more, I have a sense of what many Members may be looking for in their Speaker, who will serve second in the Constitutional line of succession to the Presidency, at least until after the next elections, or when Matt Gaetz again conspires with Democrats to remove him.
Austin Scott challenged and lost to Jordan in round two of the Speaker contests. The Georgia Congressman has been eerily silent about his service on a Democratic Congress-created commission to erase and remove Confederate monuments and names on military bases. He blithely went along with the presentism of politically correct Biden appointees, even allegedly overstepping their mandate. Scott’s role on that commission is worth exploring, but it probably doesn’t matter. He’s unlikely to advance to the final round.
It is also tough to imagine Reps. Palmer and Bergman making the final cut, even though Palmer chairs the House Republican Policy Committee, part of the leadership. Bergman is a three-star Marine veteran of Vietnam, the highest ranking former military officer in Congress. Bergman is well into his 70s, and Palmer isn’t far behind. Age is probably a factor for younger Members of Congress looking for a new generation of leadership. So might be military service.
That leaves Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-MN); Mike Johnson (R-LA), Vice Chair of the Republican Conference and a former Republican Study Committee (a conservative caucus) Chair; Byron Donalds (R-FL), the outspoken black conservative who captured 20 votes for Speaker, twice, during the 15-round voting debacle in January; Rep. Pete Sessions (R-TX); and three-term Oklahoma Republican Kevin Hern, the wealthy former McDonald’s franchisee as the strongest candidates to succeed McCarthy.
All have strengths and weaknesses.
McCarthy quickly endorsed Emmer, but Trump forces oppose him. Emmer didn’t support any efforts to challenge 2020 electors in Pennsylvania or Arizona. Worse, he served as a spokesman for The National Popular Vote Initiative to eliminate the Electoral College - an effort partially funded by George Soros. He also sponsored legislation to lift the embargo on Cuba, which may be popular with the farm and food community but won’t play well with Florida’s congressional delegation. His two terms as chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee - the official campaign arm of House Republicans - were less than noteworthy. Still, it is a post that helps build relationships and national fundraising acumen. It helped him earn the job as whip in January over Rep. Jim Banks (R-IN), now running for US Senate.
Never mind the personal dirt, including DWI charges from over a decade ago. Nasty stuff.
Like it or not, Trump is a factor in the election. If he’s smart, Trump will likely weigh in quietly (a word not often associated with Donald Trump) behind the scenes where he thinks he can make a difference in the final tallies and take credit for the eventual victor.
The highly articulate Donalds is attractive because he’s a black conservative. We’ve never had an African American Speaker of the House. He is associated with the rebellion of a handful of conservatives during the January debacle over the election of Speaker McCarthy (Donalds voted for McCarthy twice at the outset, then himself became a candidate). At 44, he’s the youngest of the candidates and serves his third term. He has a compelling personal story, the child of a single mother growing up in Brooklyn who has had brushes with the law. But as for the inside nature of the job, Donalds seems heavily inexperienced, and his skill set is still largely untested. I suspect most House members will see him as too closely associated with the radioactive Matt Gaetz and not quite ready for prime time with control of the House up for grabs in 2024.
The “outside game” - playing to the media - is important, but more time is spent on the “inside” game of getting bills passed and helping your colleagues with their reelection campaigns.
Much of the social media “noise” will indicate Donalds, a career bank officer, has the momentum. Inside-the-beltway types are pushing that Emmer is the front-runner. Don’t buy the hype.
That narrows it down to Sessions, 68; Johnson, 51; and Hern, 62, the current chair of the RSC, as most likely consensus candidates.
The amiable Johnson, representing northwest Louisiana (Shreveport) in the House, was elected in 2016. He’s best known for serving as a senior attorney and spokesman for the Alliance Defending Freedom (ADF). This conservative non-profit group defends religious freedom and has a sterling record of success in the courts. He served on Trump’s defense team during both impeachment trials in the US Senate. Johnson was once touted by the execrable Gaetz for Speaker but declined. Johnson seems well-liked by his colleagues with a hard-working yet calm, intellectual demeanor and the smarts and skill to forge behind-the-scenes coalitions. His election as vice chair of the GOP Conference was unanimous.
Johnson has never been seen as a “bomb thrower” but instead as a solid conservative who works well with others. He’s well-liked in conservative circles and is a member of the Freedom Caucus, as are other candidates. But he’s also largely unknown and without the national fundraising experience that comes from heading the NRCC.
Still, keep your eye on Mike Johnson.
I’m tempted to support a congressman from my home state, US Rep. Kevin Hern, who I do not know but has impressed his GOP colleagues during his brief tenure. His outside business experience and success will be seen as a plus, but as with so many others with such little time in the House, his legislative record is thin, and acumen not well known.
Sessions seems like a natural candidate, having been elected to leadership in the past and with a long record of electoral success (he was defeated for reelection to one of his three House seats in 2018 by 2024 Democratic US Senate candidate Colin Allred, D-TX). He chaired the House Rules Committee, the official traffic cop of House floor legislation. Despite local consternation, he moved to Waco and won an open congressional seat in 2020.
As Chair of the NRCC in 2010, he led the effort that swept in 63 new GOP House members that returned control of the House to Republicans. Sessions also has a history of gaffes and questionable associations, including one with convicted Ponzi scheme architect Allen Sanford, who is now serving a 110-year federal prison sentence. His aggressive past advocacy to eliminate the Office of Congressional Ethics probably doesn’t help. That’s a lot of baggage.
Will any of this matter to House Republicans? We’ll have to wait and see. They’ll base their decisions on personal relationships and political calculations, focusing on personal agendas and the 2024 election. My thinking may be too conventional for many members, especially those elected in the Trump era. Surprises - including a new candidate or two - are likely. After all, why not?
It seems that Emmer and Donalds cannot win the votes necessary to win for very different reasons, but Johnson could. But the voting starts today, with the lowest vote-getter dropping off after each ballot. Johnson could wind up in third place with a final choice between Emmer and Donalds, with neither capable of solidifying the caucus, starting the process all over again. Someone must see the handwriting on the wall and forge a challenging bargain.
What a mess.
I don’t see the lane for Hern or Sessions. But the bottom line is the House GOP better get its act together and unify soon so they can repair the enormous Gaetz-inflicted damage to their reputation.
House Republicans could, if they wanted, find someone from outside their conference to serve. The Constitution does not require a Speaker to serve as an elected Member of the House. One could make a case for former Vice President and US Rep. Mike Pence (R-IN), a former third-ranking House GOP leader, as a way to save face after a less-than-stellar presidential campaign thus far.
But Sean Hannity probably need not apply.