Good News for Republicans
Two new candidacies in Maryland and New Jersey add to a stellar recruiting cycle for NRSC Chair Steve Daines. A dive into US Senate races.
While Democrats are slightly favored to capture control of the US House in 2024 - putting a check on Donald Trump’s currently favored presidential candidacy - a favorable map should catapult the GOP into a US Senate majority. Democrats are defending 23 Senate seats, while Republicans only have nine.
Republicans need to flip two seats to win an outright majority - just one if Trump wins and a GOP Vice President, as the chief presiding officer of the Senate, is around to break any ties. And the GOP is considered a lock to flip West Virginia, where incumbent Democrat Joe Manchin is retiring and likely to be replaced with incumbent Democrat-turned-Republican Gov. Jim Justice. A GOP primary includes US Rep. Alex Mooney, a former state GOP chair from neighboring Maryland. The firebrand conservative has support from Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX). Look for Democrats to meddle here if they think Mooney can win the primary and make the Senate seat competitive for the general election.
The three elections for this class in 2006, 2012, and 2018 favored Democrats, especially in Pennsylvania (Bob Casey), Virginia (Tim Kaine, Hillary Clinton’s 2016 running mate), Ohio (Sherrod Brown), and Montana (Jon Tester). They face strong challengers in an increasingly tough political climate. Michigan is another, where incumbent Debbie Stabenow is retiring, and the GOP has at least two solid, first-rate former House Members running - Mike Rodgers and Peter Meijer.
Then there’s the odd case of Arizona, which has a three-way contest between lefty Democratic US Rep. Reuben Gallegos, Democrat-turned-Independent incumbent Senator Kyrsten Sinema, and Trumpian Republican lightening rod Kari Lake, back after a narrow defeat for Governor in 2022. It’s anyone’s guess who wins. You might think the lone Republican beats two Democrats, but the unusual dynamics make this race hard to predict.
The chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee, US Rep. Rich Hudson (R-NC), strongly disagrees with my House prediction. He cites both his success over Democrats in retaining incumbents in marginal seats and also good recruiting. He doesn’t talk about losing seats due to federal court-ordered redrawing of House districts in Alabama and Louisiana, likely resulting in a net loss of two seats. They only have a five-seat majority, including vacancies in GOP districts in California (Kevin McCarthy) and Illinois, including new retirements in Wisconsin and eastern Washington.
But he’s right that two Democratic open seats in Michigan, a couple more in Virginia, and one in California open the door for GOP gains. He’s also recruited candidates running again in winnable seats, such as Jamaican-born former St. Sen. George Logan in northwest Connecticut.
Of course, the elephant (or donkey) in the room will be the national political environment headed by two elderly candidates, both polarizing and neither very popular. That drives turnout, and recent trends suggest voters cast more “straight party” ballots. Will enthusiasm for Trump from GOP base voters overcome resistance to him in purple suburbs? Early trends suggest it’s a wash, but Trump leads or is tied with Biden among independent voters and in the five states likely to decide the election outcome: Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Arizona.
And while New York’s courts have opened the door to redrawing New York’s House seats, where the GOP picked up four seats in 2022, the GOP will pick up three from the redrawing of North Carolina’s House seats.
Candidate Quality Matters
A lesson from the 2022 election, when the GOP failed to meet expectations of a “red wave,” is that candidate quality matters. Independent/moderate voters didn’t like the GOP’s nominees in several key states, including Herschel Walker in Georgia, Blake Masters in Arizona, Don Bolduc in New Hampshire, Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania, and inexplicably, Adam Laxalt in Nevada, an otherwise strong candidate. Those were all seats the GOP should have won.
That’s unlikely to be a problem in 2024, depending on what happens in primaries in a couple of states. The National Republican Senatorial Committee, led by US Sen. Steve Daines (R-MT), is recruiting strong, attractive candidates in key states while minimizing, where possible, contentious primaries.
Why is that important? Democrats, over the past two cycles, have brilliantly intervened in GOP primaries, cleverly helping the more conservative and controversial candidate defeat more electable candidates. Michigan US Senate candidate Meijer is a good example. Elected to a GOP-leaning US House seat based in Grand Rapids, Michigan, in 2020, he was upended in the GOP primary by a Trumpian challenger, John Gibbs. Meijer was one of ten House Republicans who voted for Donald Trump’s impeachment. Oops. Gibbs narrowly won the primary and promptly lost the general election in what should be a GOP seat.
Democrats spent heavily on “attack” ads saying that Gibbs was “too conservative” for the district. Too many Republicans fell into the trap. They did that elsewhere, including in my former state of Pennsylvania in the 2020 gubernatorial election. They spent heavily to “promote” the GOP candidacy of St. Sen. and J6 protestor Doug Mastriano (he was never prosecuted), who won the nomination.
Guess who’s not the governor of Pennsylvania today?
But give Daines credit. He’s helped engineer the recruitment of top-flight candidates in Pennsylvania (Former Bush Treasury official, West Point graduate, Army Paratrooper Dave McCormick), Navy Seal Tim Sheehy in Montana, and others. There are strong candidates in Ohio’s primary, including St. Sen. Matt Dolan and Colombian-born auto magnate Bernie Mareno.
Even New Jersey, where embattled incumbent Bob Menendez (D-NJ) is unlikely to survive his latest legal challenge or two serious primary opponents, gubernatorial spouse Tammy Murphy or US Rep. Andy Kim. Cape May entrepreneur Curtis Bashaw, who restored the iconic Congress Inn hotel, is a solid GOP candidate in a state the GOP hasn’t been competitive in for a while despite strong candidates in the recent past, often running in bad years. If Menendez makes it through the primary, watch this space. Even if he doesn’t.
The latest recruiting triumph, however, is former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan, who famously was diagnosed and recovered from a serious bout of cancer during his eight years as Governor. Not everyone is excited, but Republicans should be. Hogan, a national co-chair of the “No Labels” movement, made famous nationally for his refusal to support Trump’s election and reelection and now supports Nikki Haley. While the notably nonpartisan and centrist Hogan may drive some conservative Republicans nuts, he’s still a vote that helps the GOP organize the US Senate, including chairing committees and putting the GOP in charge of the Senate’s agenda.
To borrow an old phrase, I may disagree with Larry Hogan half the time, but I disagree with Democrats all the time. I’d also rather have Republican chairs of committees wielding subpoena power instead of Democrats.
Hogan’s entrance was a surprise, given his past comments about lacking a burning desire to be a US Senator. Polling will be interesting - he trailed the likely Democratic nominee, US Rep. and uber-wealthy wine and beer retailer David Trone, in a poll taken last November, well before Hogan thought of entering the race. Regardless, it’s a race Democrats are not excited to see - the affable 67-year-old Hogan puts Maryland in play for the GOP.
Interestingly, one of Hogan’s early endorsers is a Democratic House member, Jared Golden (D-ME), one of the few Democrats who serves in a seat Trump has carried twice. Hogan is a change agent for a new kind of politics, which voters constantly claim they want.
Daines was less successful in preventing a contentious primary in his home state, where US Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-MT) lost to incumbent Jon Tester six years ago by 15,000 votes - Tester’s largest winning margin ever - is back for a rematch. Daines had already recruited former Navy Seal and beef rancher Tim Sheehy, who, by all accounts, is an outstanding candidate. Watch for Democrats to meddle in the Montana GOP’s primary with mock “endorsements” of Rosendale. It’s a distraction Republicans would rather not have that Democrats no doubt will exploit.
The same thing is happening in California, where Democratic Senate front-runner and notorious Russia collusion hoaxer Adam Schiff is “touting” Republican and former LA Dodger first baseman Steve Garvey. Under California’s “jungle” primary system, the top two primary vote-getters advance to the general election regardless of party. Garvey, 75, is running second or third in most polls. Schiff would rather face a Republican in a runoff than a fellow Democrat, like US Rep. Katie Porter. It’s a sound strategy in a state where Donald Trump will lose badly in November.
The thought of Adam Schiff in the US Senate makes me ill.
Why the Senate matters more than the House in 2024
It would be nice, of course, for the GOP to win a “trifecta” in 2024 - both houses of Congress and the presidency - but the reality is that Donald Trump will be a drag on the ticket in many suburban areas, where he continues to underperform in primaries thus far. And if Trump wins, some voters may be inclined to split their tickets to keep a “check” on Trump’s “excesses.” That will depend on the political environment, which remains somewhat cloudy for November.
Given the prevailing view that House Republicans haven’t managed their affairs very well with chaotic behavior in selecting a Speaker of the House - twice - and appearing quite divided, plus the aforementioned court-directed redrawing of district lines in several states, a Democratic House remains possible if not probable.
So is a GOP Senate. Also probable at this point.
Majorities in the House and Senate matter. Committee chairs have subpoena authority, and if Hakeem Jeffries becomes Speaker, the investigations into Joe Biden and his son, Hunter, will come to a crashing end. But the Senate could pick them up.
In addition, while tax bills must originate in the House, the Senate advises and consents on nominations. This is huge for filling up the judicial branch and confirming executive branch nominations, especially contentious ones. There have been several close votes on controversial Biden nominations to the courts and executive branch.
A less populous and, therefore, less cacophonous Senate could also improve the oversight process. The Senate will still need 60 votes to move most legislation, but simple majority votes are needed only for confirming nominees - including for the Supreme Court - and budget and “reconciliation” bills.
The Democrats have always had an uphill 2024 election facing them for the US Senate. Thanks to some stellar recruiting, especially Larry Hogan in Maryland, the GOP’s prospects look bright, no matter who wins the presidency in November.