Fundamental Things are Afoot ... In New Jersey
The Biggest Story of Election Night May Not be Virginia, But New Jersey, Where the GOP Won More Down Ballot Races.
A quick recap of election night and its significance. There were surprises.
While the big story nationally early this morning was a well-earned GOP sweep of the top three statewide offices, led by Governor-elect Glenn Youngkin, a bigger story may be playing out in New Jersey, and specifically, southern New Jersey.
While Democrats will cling to a much narrower 44-36 majority in New Jersey’s General Assembly, the GOP appears to have erased a Democratic majority in Virginia’s House of Delegates, which may have either a tied 50-50 or 1-vote GOP majority. While there were no State Senate races in Virginia yesterday, it appears the GOP will pick up three seats in the Garden State.
Most of the New Jersey GOP gains occurred in the mostly-working class/middle-class suburbs of Philadelphia. Murphy’s attempt to scare voters with attacks on his challenger for seeking to impose Donald Trump’s agenda may have backfired. Murphy’s mismanagement and general tone-deafness were also significant factors.
New Jersey Democrats have a 1 million voter registration advantage in a state that Joe Biden won by 16% in 2020. Yet last night, New Jersey Republicans gained eight seats in the General Assembly, and at least 2 in the State Senate and shockingly may have defeated State Senate President Steve Sweeney (who I know and like) with a truck driver who spent practically no money. Most of the gains appear to have occurred in the middle/working-class communities that comprise Atlantic (Atlantic City), Gloucester (suburban Philly), and Burlington (also suburban Philly) Counties. Party-switching Democrat Sen. Dawn Addiego from the leafy Philly suburb of Evesham was defeated by her GOP challenger.
Southern New Jersey used to be a Republican stronghold. It appears to be rediscovering its roots. And the people sweating the most from the results may be Democratic members of Congress occupying swing districts, such as Rep. Andy Kim and Tom Malinowski in New Jersey and Abigail Spanberger in Virginia. They will face tough reelection campaigns next year—perhaps others.
The New Jersey governor's race is too close to call and won't be for many days. Republican Jack Ciaterrelli is clutching a slim 20,000 vote lead with as much as 20% of ballots remaining to be counted. I hope GOP lawyers are descending on Essex County.
In Virginia, there were no state senate seats up this election (they will be on the ballot in 2023), but they appear to have tied or captured control of the House of Delegates with a gain of 5 to 6 seats with many close races still outstanding.
I remain disappointed in the People's Republic of Northern Virginia. Democrats swept every race on the ballot where federal employees and their government contractors predominate, especially Arlington, Alexandria, and the state’s largest county, Fairfax. But that was the exception, not the rule across the Commonwealth.
Many experts will expound their theories on why Republicans were successful in both Virginia and New Jersey. Youngkin and Ciaterreli both ran on local bread-and-butter issues like education, crime, and against the extreme elements of the Democratic agenda. Murphy’s dismal record was a factor. Democrats tried to “nationalize” their races with constant references to Donald Trump. Nationalizing off-year state and local races, even congressional races in many instances, rarely works. The national political environment was also an issue, but perhaps not a major one.
A couple of other interesting ballot questions are worth noting. Minneapolis voted not to disband its police force. And Maine overwhelmingly amended its constitution and declared a “right to food,” although no one knows what that means.
ADDENDUM: The GOP victories elsewhere keep rolling in. Congratulations to Pennsylvania Republicans for sweeping all statewide judicial races on the ballot yesterday. And my former home county of Delaware, which swept Democrats into unanimous control of its county council just two years ago, elected two Republicans. I guess a lot of voters there realized their mistake. Even deep blue and very woke Seattle got into the act with a new GOP city attorney over her police abolitionist opponent.