Fear Trumps Hope: The Lesson of Election 2023
Off-year, mostly local elections don't portend future ones. Except when they do.
Most Americans believe we have elections every two years. The fact is that we have elections every year, somewhere. This year, several states had important elections for governor (Louisiana, Mississippi, and Kentucky), state legislatures (New Jersey, Virginia), and local and other statewide elections (most notably Pennsylvania, which had key local and one crucial state Supreme Court race).
Louisiana was early under its unique “jungle” primary system in the gubernatorial election. Republicans picked up a previously Democratic-held seat when Attorney General and former US Rep. Jeff Landry won a majority vote over several candidates to replace term-limited Democrat John Bel Edwards. The GOP will now have full control over Louisiana state government.
Incumbents Tate Reeves (R-MS) and Andy Brashear (D-KY) narrowly won their reelections. Reeves defeated a well-funded cousin of Elvis Presley. Most media focused on Kentucky as they cheered for Presley’s cousin in the Magnolia State.
End result of gubernatorial races in 2023: GOP pickup of plus-1.
In Virginia, media mavens are making a big deal out of the Republican Party and, by extension, incumbent Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s failure to win control of the legislature. They barely lost the House of Delegates they narrowly controlled by two seats. Republicans gained a seat in the Senate but needed to pick up three. They lost three races by very close margins, including in my new home district in Loudoun County, one of Washington, DC’s increasingly government-employee and “beltway bandit” laden Democratic “collar” counties.
Here’s how David Rexrode, leader of Governor Youngkin’s “Spirit of Virginia” PAC spun the outcome. It strikes me as fair-minded, spot-on, and instructive.
After reviewing the nearly complete results of the 2023 General Assembly elections, it is clear we did not meet our goals. At this time, it appears that Republicans will win 49 seats in the House and 19 seats in the Senate, a one-seat pickup. Despite redistricting, difficult odds from the outset, and an onslaught of Democratic spending in excess of at least $50 million, Governor Glenn Youngkin’s Spirit of Virginia PAC contributed to these races in an unprecedented way, providing a roadmap for Republican success even in competitive or difficult environments like Virginia.
THE RESULTS
As the numbers showed last night, since 2021, Virginia has moved back into a battleground toss-up state. There are a few things to consider, given the unprecedented resources spent against our candidates and the environment we faced:
Republicans won 13 districts President Biden won in 2020.
Republicans won seven districts where the Congressional Democratic candidate won in 2022.
Republicans came 1,919 votes short in a district carried by President Biden, former Governor McAuliffe, and Congresswoman Wexton from winning control of the state Senate (SD30).
Republicans came 2,415 votes short in two districts (HD21 and HD65) carried by President Biden and Congressional Democratic candidates from maintaining a Republican majority in the House of Delegates.
It appears that when all votes are counted, the statewide margin between votes cast for Republican candidates vs. votes cast for Democrat candidates will be one percent and neither side got a majority of the vote. This once again illustrates how close and competitive this election cycle truly was.
CONCLUSION
Virginia Republicans faced significant headwinds from the outset of this election. Our candidates were running in Democrat districts and were significantly outspent – the results reflect the political and financial reality that we understood and acknowledged.
An interesting side note. JB Pritzker, the obese and failed billionaire Democratic Governor of Illinois, contributed $250,000 to Democratic candidates in Virginia. Having largely ruined his high-tax state, where residents are fleeing by the thousands, he’s now working to destroy mine.
My part of Loudoun County's more rural western section clings to its Virginia heritage, including a distinctive red hue in its election results. We vote very differently than the interlopers in our more populous and crowded suburban eastern enclaves where I used to live, and Donald Trump still owns a country club (Lowes Island).
Loudoun County is one of America’s better-known counties for two reasons. First, it was “ground zero” in the 2021 gubernatorial elections, mostly over abuses and scandals in the local public schools. Youngkin’s victory was largely due to a push for parental rights and transparency and his opponent’s indifference (former Democratic Gov. Terry McAuliffe).
Second, it has been America’s wealthiest county, as measured by average or median income, for most of the past 30 years. About 80 percent of America’s internet traffic flows through this high-tech corridor, bordered north by Maryland and the Potomac River, and to the west by the Blue Ridge Mountains and West “By God!” Virginia.
Loudoun increasingly looks like a microcosm of America, its rural western precincts leaning Republican, while its heavily developed, highly educated, and suburban eastern areas are increasingly Democratic. It’s become something of a bellwether.
Loudoun’s votes were mixed, with Democrats narrowly winning an open state Senate seat. The Republicans won my open state House race. A George Soros-funded prosecutor was defeated, albeit narrowly. I feel safer already.
What were the messages in Virginia? Democrats outspent Republicans in broadcast media, pushing fear and untruths - all the GOP candidates were “MAGA extremists” who supported banning all abortions. The GOP candidates ran mostly on a hopeful agenda of tax cuts and increasing safety.
Fear trumped hope. Fear drove Democratic turnout higher, while GOP turnout was tepid at best. On the abortion issue, Democrats ran mostly on protecting a state law that protected abortions at almost any time for any reason, so long as a doctor or two is involved in the final trimester. Read the law for yourself. Republicans ran on limiting abortions after 15 weeks when a fetus can feel pain.
The actual difference? Less than 5 percent of abortions are conducted after 15 weeks of gestation.
Former Democratic Governor and abortion advocate Ralph Northam, a pediatric neurologist, explains Virginia law enthusiastically here:
That’s not how it was portrayed to voters; gullible, mostly clueless, and uninformed suburban voters took the bait that all Republicans wanted to ban abortions, all of them, with no exceptions. The media’s reporting of this issue was pathetic and largely non-existent, even negligent.
Republicans still have not figured out how to navigate the abortion issue. I’ve already offered my advice. Nikki Haley, former South Carolina Governor and US Ambassador to the United Nations, has spoken eloquently with effectiveness, candor, and compassion.
Republicans also have not figured out how to deal with the poll-tested “MAGA Extremist” tag they are placing on all GOP candidates. Juan Pablo Segura, the young, cerebral, and mild-mannered state Senate candidate where I live (disclosure: we served on the board of a non-profit organization together), hardly fits the bill as a January 6th insurrectionist, but that’s how Democrats defined and defamed their opponents.
If Donald Trump winds up as the GOP’s nominee in 2024, candidates might as well embrace “MAGA” by carefully and slowly explaining what MAGA means. You know, Make America Great Again. When explained that way, it doesn’t sound so “extremist.”
Second observation: false smears trumped the truth.
The news from my former home in the Philadelphia suburbs was bad from a GOP perspective. My former township of Edgmont elected a Democratic supervisor, which is amazing, given that it is the county’s most GOP township. Delaware County continued its slide into deep blue territory, electing a solidly Democratic school board. Democrats won a pivotal state Supreme Court, one of America's most partisan and politically motivated.
The news was no better elsewhere in the Commonwealth, including Pittsburgh and Alleghany County. If I still lived in Pennsylvania and had kids in public schools (I did, on both counts), I would move or change schools. I’ve certainly done the former already. And that’s a problem - Republicans are abandoning the state in droves for nicer weather and tax climates (hand raised), with less crime and corruption.
In Kentucky, all the focus was on the governor’s race. Still, the GOP did just fine elsewhere in the Bluegrass State, controlling the Attorney General’s office, Treasurer, and Secretary of State. Brashear ran as a moderate Democrat who kept as far away from Joe Biden as possible. Cameron ran as Trump’s candidate, touting his endorsement in a state the 45th President won by 26 points in 2020. The association didn’t help and may have hurt.
Cameron should have run as his own man, not as someone else’s. That rarely works. Better yet, he should have bided his time and run for reelection as Attorney General. Still, he’s a talented candidate with a good future, possibly as Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell’s successor.
So what’s the bottom line? Do these elections portend headwinds for the GOP going into 2024? The headwinds were, and are, going to be there no matter what happened on Tuesday, from hostile media to big-money donors now fully parked in the Progressive camp.
The results are not predictive since the environment, and the races (local and state versus national) will radically differ in 2024, when the presidential contest largely defines the political environment. But the means are predictive. Fear and loathing will dominate the 2024 campaign strategy and messaging. Sure, it’s happened before, but that’s not what voters are looking for - or need - in 2024.
Tuesday’s election was a bellwether. Fear worked, at least on the abortion issue. Trump, who may lead in some polls against the feckless and impaired octogenarian Joe Biden today (he turns 81 in 10 days), remains an albatross around the necks of GOP candidates. That’s simply a fact borne out by election results since and including 2018. How many examples would you like me to provide?
It’s also a fact that baseless smears and lies worked on a gullible electorate with no pushback from the media (except when purported by Republicans). For those of us who’d like to see an election that looked like Wednesday night’s excellent GOP presidential debate (kudos to NBC and Salem’s Hugh Hewitt for a terrific set of rules, questions, and time management), with visions and positions on key issues made clear.
More about the debate in my next post.
One last point. Some conservatives are pointing fingers and blaming Ronna McDaniel, Republican National Committee Chairwoman, for the unmet expectations. I do not know her, but that’s unfair and silly. She and the RNC strongly supported their strongest candidates, including working closely with Governor Youngkin’s political operation in Virginia. She’s not responsible for candidate strategies, messages, miscues, or mistakes. Blame her for other things all you wish, but not for Tuesday’s election outcomes.
How do we get elections based on hope, candor, and truth and less on fear and lies? Very simple. That which gets rewarded gets repeated. Voters must stop rewarding fear and lies, as they did in many races on Tuesday.
It starts and ends with us.
I think this is as good a summary of the election that I've seen. Not only is the abortion issue demagogued by the Democrats, but the fear suburban women have of Trump makes it difficult for them to hear what down ballot candidates are actually saying. The party of the rich also outspent the Republicans by a significant amount and that did not help either.