My "Early Returns" Scorecard: Part 1
While the latest polls suggest a GOP "red wave" on November 8th, here are a few races on my scorecard to determine how much of a wave it will be. First of a series.
We are now t-minus 20 days from the 2022 elections. It’s about now that I customarily begin eyeballing well-crafted public opinion surveys and national and state election dynamics (debates, candidate performance, local issues, etc.), as many campaigns fall by the wayside.
Early voting is well underway in more than a dozen states. We’re in the throes of televised debates, a final round of endorsements, and the final flurry of attack ads and “October surprises.” Lawyers are being hired for the inevitable recounts.
Today, I’m beginning to construct my “scorecard” of early election results in the Eastern Standard Time Zone that will portend whether it is a “normal” mid-term election or something resembling a massive red wave.
This post is the first of a series of election analyses leading to November 8th. I’m outlining the races I’m watching most closely for a trend. I’ll follow with observations and highlights of debates, the most interesting elections of the cycle (starting with Utah’s US Senate race). This is the first of two (maybe three) posts about races that compose my election night scorecard - about two dozen.
Let me set the stage. On August 20, I posted about the Democratic Party’s newfound and badly-placed enthusiasm for the forthcoming election. I told the story of the 1994 elections when Democrats, late that summer, experienced similar notions before losing control of the US House for the first time in 40 years, coupled with an 8-seat GOP gain in the US Senate.
What I predicted on August 20: “As pollster and messaging expert Frank Luntz noted, most Americans are driven by unaffordability, anxiety, and anger. Things can change, of course. But while it may not qualify as a hectic flush, most signs suggest that Democrats are whistling past the political graveyard.”
Based on a flurry of national polling conducted over the past two weeks, Democratic party professionals are beginning to spot a massive red wave on the horizon. And with less than 3 weeks to election day - and early voting underway in a dozen or more states - the cake is more than baked. All that’s missing is the final layer of frosting.
The Liberal Patriot’s John Halpin:
After a glimmer of electoral hope towards the end of summer, aided by some deft issue deflection and assistance from out-of-the mainstream challengers, Democrats are once again staring reality in the face with three weeks to go until the midterms. The latest economic reports show U.S. core inflation, excluding volatile food and energy prices, at a forty-year high with overall consumer prices up more than 8 percent on the year. Americans continue to watch their paychecks erode as they confront higher prices in nearly every aspect of life.
It will take an act of God or an incredibly inept Republican Party to fail to convert this economic pain among voters into control of one or both legislative chambers in the November elections.
And this, co-authored in the Wall Street Journal by Democratic strategist Doug Schoen and former New York City Council President Andrew Stein (D):
The Republican Party is on the cusp of a substantial midterm election victory that could rival their wins in 1994 and 2010.
There has been a 3-point swing to Republicans in generic-ballot polling in just the last month, according to the RealClearPolitics average. Democrats led by as much as 1.3 points in September, but as of Monday, Republicans were up by 1.8.
A late September ABC News/Washington Post poll found the Republican advantage concentrated where it’s needed most. The GOP had a 5-point lead among likely voters nationwide, but a 21-point margin in “competitive” congressional districts. Other battleground-district polls, from CBS News, Economist/YouGov and CNN, showed the GOP with a much narrower lead, but a consistent one.
What does that mean for seats? The House’s current breakdown is 220-212 in favor of the Democrats, with three vacant seats. A majority of a full House is 218. As of Sunday, RealClearPolitics rates 221 seats as leaning, likely or securely Republican, to 176 for the Democrats. The other 38 seats are toss-ups.
If there are no upsets on either side and the toss-ups are evenly split, that brings Republicans to a 240-195 majority—a gain of 28 seats.
And early voting trends are beginning to emerge, especially in Georgia. Monday's first day of early voting broke mid-term election records (so much for “voter suppression”).
In fairness, many statewide public polls for toss-up gubernatorial and US Senate races don’t reflect that yet. Republican candidates like Pennsylvania’s Mehmet Oz continue to trail. But most of the trend lines are clear. In one survey, Oz trailed his stroke-victim opponent, Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, by double digits less than a month ago. The latest reliable poll has it within the margin of error. These state polls may be lagging indicators, and more than a few have poor track records in recent elections. Local issues also may influence outcomes in some states, such as Georgia and Pennsylvania.
The most interesting of the recent national polls is the Harvard Harris CAPS survey conducted on October 12th and 13th. Democratic pollster Mark Penn supervised the poll of over 1,000 registered voters (not likely voters, which has become the norm).
A New York Times/Sienna Poll of likely voters almost simultaneously confirms an unmistakable GOP trend. “It’s a modest but notable swing from last month, when Democrats led by one percentage point among likely voters,” wrote New York Times political analyst Nate Cohn. “Since then, the warning signs for Democrats have begun to add up, including Republican polling gains in key Senate races like those in Nevada, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, and surprising Republican strength in districts in Rhode Island and Oregon where Democrats would normally be safe.”
But as the old cliche goes, the only poll that matters is on election day. So which early outcomes should we watch to spot possible trends? Remember that some states will be counting mail votes for several days after the election.
Of course, there are many more races to watch, but results from these early deciders will set the stage.
Florida and Georgia
Sunshine State and Peach State polls are the first to close in the Eastern time zone - 7 p.m. North Carolina follows at 7:30 p.m. But while North Carolina requires mail ballots to be postmarked by election day, Florida and Georgia require mail ballots to be received by election day. That means we’ll likely have unofficial results from both states on election night, except for close elections in Georgia, where no candidate wins a simple majority of the vote.
You remember the 2020 elections. Control of the US Senate wasn’t determined until a January 5th runoff election involving both US Senate seats. Democrats Rafael Warnock and Jon Ossoff narrowly won as an estimated 450,000 Republican voters stayed home. Warnock is on the ballot again for a full six-year term against University of Georgia football legend and 1982 Heisman Trophy winner Herschel Walker. There is a third-party Libertarian candidate, Chase Oliver. This toss-up race may again not be decided until another January runoff election.
If Walker can win 50+% on election night, that may suggest a trend. Incumbent GOP governor Brian Kemp’s expected trouncing of 2018 election denier Stacey Abrams may prove a drag on the Democratic ticket and Warnock.
Georgia has only one interesting congressional election, in the state’s rural 2nd Congressional District, which is based in Columbus and home to Fort Benning (name change forthcoming, since Henry Benning fought for the Confederacy), home of the US Army’s Infantry schools. It has been represented by the dean of Georgia’s congressional delegation, US Rep. Sanford Bishop (D) for 30 years. He’s facing his most serious challenge in a district redrawn last year to be somewhat kinder to Republicans. Bishop is still likely to win, but if Republican Chris West ekes out a victory, Katie bar the door. A recent Trafalgar poll - whose sample contains more African Americans than Caucasians - has the contest within the margin of error.
Key races include Florida’s US Senate race between incumbent Republican Marco Rubio and Democratic challenger Val Demmings and three US House races. I’ll be watching Rubio’s margin of victory. Just remember that Florida features two time zones, so results from much of the heavily-GOP panhandle will arrive late. Also, Hurricane Ian recovery may affect turnout and reporting, especially in hard-hit and heavily GOP Fort Myers. But given the effectiveness of Florida’s hurricane response and recovery, I doubt it (hat tip, Governor Ron DeSantis).
The three US House races to watch include Florida’s 7th district, an open seat contest (incumbent Democrat is retiring) where Republican Cory Mills should win in a Trump +5 seat (Trump won this newly-designed district by 5 percent in 2020). GOP primary turnout exceeded that of Democrats by nearly 50 percent. Another seat to watch is Florida’s 15th district. It’s a new district Trump won by only 3 percent in 2020, and where GOP primary votes exceeded Democrats by 11,000. Republican Laura Lee is a slight favorite over Alan Cohn. Again, the issue should be the margin of victory in both cases.
Why does primary election turnout matter? First, it is a sign of voter enthusiasm and a good barometer when there are competitive primaries. Democrats in Florida had competitive primaries for Governor and US Senator; Republicans didn’t.
Florida’s 27th district in heavily Hispanic Miami features freshman Republican Maria Salazar, who unseated Democrat Donna Shalala in 2020. Redistricting moved this district from one Joe Biden carried by 5 points in 2020 to one he lost by a single point. Salazar’s race should also be an early indicator of any gains among Hispanics enjoyed by the GOP.
North Carolina
With the caveat that late mail-in ballots won’t be counted for several days, the only two races to watch are the US Senate, where Republican Ted Budd should win by more than 100,000 votes, and the newly-drawn 13th US House district, a suburban south Raleigh seat that Biden carried by two percentage points in 2020. Democratic nominee Wiley Nickel faces 27-year-old Republican Bo Hines. While Biden narrowly carried the district, GOP primary voters doubled the number of Democratic primary votes. I’m looking for a Hines victory (eventually).
Virginia
The Commonwealth, home to more US presidents than any other state (but none since Woodrow Wilson), has two (and maybe three) congressional races on my scorecard: the military-heavy second district in its far southeastern corner (think Langley Air Force Base and Newport News Shipyard). GOP State Senator Jennifer Kiggans is challenging three-term incumbent Democratic Elaine Luria. This district has a history of changing hands in swing or wave elections. Luria unseated incumbent Republican Scott Tayor in 2018 and fended off a rematch two years later, each by about 6,000 votes. Despite Luria’s national defense work, the tide should sweep former Naval helicopter pilot Kiggans into Congress.
I’m less certain of a hotly contested race in the redrawn 7th District in Washington DC’s fast-growing exurbs. In recent years, incumbent Abigail Spanberger has been openly critical of her Democratic Party’s woke swing and moved north with her formerly Richmond suburban district. She faces first-time candidate, El Salvador immigrant, and former police officer, Yesli Vega. Spanberger is a tough, aggressive, and talented candidate in a slightly more Democratic seat than she previously represented. Still, Vega has the wind to her back in a district that the respected Cook Political Report rates as a D+1 district. Vega should win in a wave or a normal mid-term election when the other party is in power. Keep your eye on this one as a barometer.
One more seat I have my eye on in Virginia - the D+10 Tenth District, represented by Democrat Jennifer Wexton. A formidable incumbent, she faces an interesting challenge from Republican former Navy Captain and Vietnam refugee Hung Cao. I frequently travel to the district - Cao’s signs and organizational activity are ubiquitous. He has a strong support base among religious conservatives in a district with a large and fast-growing Asian population driven by the tech industry (Loudoun County, the district’s population base, is the nation’s wealthiest county through which 80 percent of our internet traffic flows). If he pulls an upset, we’re in tsunami territory.
If Virginia provides three new seats for House Republicans, I’ll switch my beverage of choice to champagne on election night. Democrats may want to switch to Everclear (I’m joking).
One interesting observation on Democratic campaigns late in October. Many have switched from trying to “nationalize” the election over abortion to “localizing” elections to excoriate their GOP opponents over perceived character issues and hypocrisy. We saw it with the Daily Beast denied, uncorroborated, and since evaporated hit job over allegations that Georgia’s Walker paid for an abortion. Walker returned the favor by exposing Senator Warnock’s lies over his church’s eviction of renters while he accepts subsidized housing and stipend while serving as a US Senator. Nasty race, that one.
Virginia’s Spanberger focuses now on her opponent’s filing for bankruptcy some 13 years ago, including eradicating Yesli Vega’s student loan debt. This smacks of desperation since many struggling families may relate to Vega’s personal story, despite Spanberger’s attempt to make it about hypocrisy (Vega has criticized the Biden student loan forgiveness scheme).
Part Two will take us north to other Eastern time zone states with the most competitive elections, including New Jersey, Pennsylvania, New York, Maine, and Rhode Island. Each state has bellwether elections worth watching.