Don't Pennsylvania California?
California is now following Pennsylvania's population trends of the last 60 years, if not worse. It appears irreversable (Gavin Newsom, anyone?) and won't end well.
My friend, Thomas Buckley - like me, a former daily newspaper editor, except he’s based in the Golden State - reported today on a new forecast from the California Department of Finance about population trends in the state.
My blog reader may remember my exhortations a year ago when California lost a congressional seat in its most recent reapportionment for the first time. People are fleeing California as fast as possible, and neighboring states - Arizona, Utah, Nevada, and Idaho - welcome them in droves. Even Texas and Florida. A friend of mine is celebrating his “Calexit” to the Granite State of New Hampshire. I know ex-Californians who have made one-way moves to more hospitable places like Tennessee.
I’ll let Buckley tell the story:
In 1967, California knocked New York from its perch and became the largest – by population – state in America.
In 2049, Texas may very well do the same to California.
Why? Because new state Department of Finance population forecast numbers show California as having roughly the same number – about 12,000 less actually - of people in it in 2060 as it does right now – in 2023.
The economic, political, and cultural impacts of this new projection – in 2007 the department projected a population of 60 million in 2060 – are massive.
Even more troubling for the state is that the U.S. Census projects the national population will grow to about 404 million in 2060.
That’s 70 million new people in America with none of them in California.
If this holds true, California will lose 9 congressional seats, nearly 20% of its delegation, as its share of national population will go from a bit over 12% to a tad under 10%. That is reminiscent of the economically devastated Rust Belt state losses in the 1970s and 80s.
I’ll let Wendell Cox, a principal at Demographia, a consulting firm, spike the ball:
Yet despite its splendid weather and spectacular scenery, people are leaving California in droves. Just in the 27 months between the 2020 Census and the 2022 US Census Bureau population estimates, a net 871,000 net domestic migrants have moved to other parts of the United States. This is more residents than live in the city of San Francisco (808,000), according to the Census Bureau. Of course more Californians stayed than moved, but if California had experienced similar migration trends throughout its history, it would never have become the nation’s largest state.
By comparison, Pennsylvania had 30 US House seats after the 1950 Census - 32 electoral votes, all of which went to Dwight Eisenhower in the 1952 presidential election. They lost three US House seats after the 1960 census, down to 27.
And it’s been going down ever since. Pennsylvania has lost a third of its congressional seats since John F. Kennedy was elected. Nobody thinks Pennsylvania’s undistinguished US Senators - Robert F. Casey Jr. and John Fetterman, Democrats - have an ounce of heft. There are a few, but only a few, influential members of Pennsylvania’s House delegation, most notably US Rep. Glenn Thompson, Chair of the House Agriculture Committee.
Still, Pennsylvania remains our fifth largest US state. For now.
It’s not that Pennsylvania’s population has dropped. It remained pretty steady (flat) and even increased slightly over time. It just hasn’t kept up with growth elsewhere, especially in the sunbelt states of Florida (no income tax, better weather), Texas (same), and a host of others, including, until recently, California.
Aside from a short spike after WWII, Pennsylvania’s “growth” has been flat as a pancake. They lost an estimated 40,000 people between July 1, 2020, and July 1, 2021 (my wife and I are two of them). Welcome to the club, California, except your problems may be worse and about to really get bad.
Pennsylvania at least has had a few political leaders with vision and pro-business proclivities, including former US Rep. and Gov. Tom Ridge (R-PA) and a few others. Pennsylvania has a flat income tax (that’s been raised, thanks to recent Democratic governors) and no longer taxes retirement income (thanks to Ridge). The state’s problem is exorbitant property, fuel (nation’s second highest gas tax), and business taxes they can’t seem to fix, an unfriendly regulatory environment, and divided government - Republicans control the Senate, but Democrats now control the House and have won five of the last six gubernatorial elections (and the GOP’s one winning candidate was a dud and lost reelection). Nothing gets done. And the GOP doesn’t help itself by being a dysfunctional state party that can’t seem to nominate attractive candidates (with recent exceptions) for statewide positions.
California used to have visionaries like former US Sen. and Gov. Pete Wilson (a Republican). But be careful what you wish for California. You’re now a one-party far-left “progressive” state with a governor who, borrowing from the line of a 1981 Merle Haggard song, is determined to turn the once-Golden State into “a snowball headed for hell.” And he has a lot of help from a very woke Democratic majority in the state legislature and a congressional delegation with Eric Swalwell and Adam Schiff, among other notables.
California may make Pennsylvania’s decline look like paradise in comparison.
While California still has many lovely and vibrant communities (Los Gatos, Granite Bay, Healdsburg, etc.), when did you last walk the streets of San Francisco or attend a meeting there?
To be sure, the causes of these population trends are very different. Pennsylvania was described by demographer Joel Garreau in his landmark book, “The Nine Nations of North America,” as a “state of magnificent decline” in one of its chapters. And he wrote that 42 years ago. He wasn’t wrong in many respects. And I say that with all respect and fondness for a Commonwealth where my family and I resided happily for 18 years. We still enjoy visiting vibrant towns and cities like Lancaster (a top retirement mecca) and West Chester, near our former home.
California is a mess of its own making and seems inclined to power ahead.
Pennsylvania’s hay days were in the 19th and early 20th Centuries as a railroad, manufacturing (especially steel), and agricultural behemoth. It remains a huge center of agricultural activity (the Pennsylvania Farm Show remains a must-visit every January), but the manufacturing and railroad industries look very different. Many towns and cities are making notable comebacks, especially in northeast Pennsylvania around Allentown, Bethlehem, and Easton, home to great universities and fleeing New Yorkers. Pittsburgh is a vibrant community.
Many of Pennsylvania’s wineries are worth visiting. Especially since they’re not in Philly or Pittsburgh. Some of its wines, especially around Kennett Square and French Creek State Park, compare and compete nicely with anything California offers.
I will not visit crime-ridden downtown Philadelphia, despite the presence of my favorite Italian restaurant, Porcini.
At least Pennsylvania still has a conceal-carry law with reciprocity in other states. I still have my permit. It is possible to protect yourself in the Keystone State. But good luck with the local Philly prosecutor, Soros-funded Larry Krasner. He’s unlikely to take your side unless you’re a criminal with a wealthy campaign donor on your side. Philly has that much in common with California’s major cities.
Experts like Wendell Cox point to California’s lefty and woke (but I repeat myself) policies as a driver in its exodus. Buckley concludes nicely here:
Between January 2020 and July 2022, a net 870,000 people left California. That works out to be about 1,000 people per day.
That’s not to say California has no housing shortage, especially for the middle-class, Cox said. But that, too, can be put down to the state’s horrendous regulatory system and anti-suburb mania.
But to claim that the numbers were reduced to zero growth over 37 years because of low birth rates, COVID, and Donald Trump is missing the point, Cox said.
“I am flummoxed that somehow the exodus of domestic migration has slipped their notice,” Cox said.
All of this while Texas is projecting significant growth. According to the Texas Demographics Center – the state agency that tracks population and such – the state will top 40 million residents – and therefore California – in 2049.
Howdy y’all!
Other states should learn from Pennsylvania and the shit show in California. There’s no other way to describe it.