Do Vice Presidential Candidates Matter?

Absolutely, but they are more likely to hurt than help you. Ignore "the list" because the best prospect isn't getting much attention. Yet.

Much ink is being spilled on putative GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump’s vice presidential nomination. Most of the questions he gets from the media these days eventually ask him to comment on various candidates or shed light on his thinking.

Most recently, the media pounced on a list of potential candidates to whom he requested background documents to vet their suitability. This is a common procedure for most presidential campaigns to ensure they’re prepared for surprises. The questionnaires are crafted by smart, politically experienced attorneys who leave no stone unturned, even requesting several years of tax returns.

I put little credence in The List. I’m willing to wager that none of them will be chosen.

What struck me about the list was its obvious diversity: Three African American males, a Hispanic Senator, a young female mom and congressional leader, and one very wealthy and accomplished (read: billionaire) technology entrepreneur, governor, and former competitor. Freshman US Senator JD Vance (R-OH), clicks a couple of boxes - celebrity (author of “Hillbilly Elegy” and subject of a movie by the same name) and former Marine.

The list wasn’t about anyone on it. It was about the list itself and what it represented. It served its purpose, sending reporters down various rabbit trails. Based on anonymous sources, NBC went so far as to suggest that the list is down to four, but I’m not buying that, either—another rabbit trail.

US Senator Tom Cotton (R-AR) is also apparently now on the list, a former Army infantry officer, combat veteran, and Harvard lawyer. Cotton is a regular on the weekend news shows who expertly and calmly schools and frequently eviscerates largely ignorant, left-leaning hosts.

I imagine Cotton in the vice presidential debate this July with Kamala Harris. Heart, be still. Still, I’m not listing Cotton among my options below for now. Most see him more likely as a senior Cabinet official. He’s also running for Chair of the Senate Republican Conference in the next Congress.

What should Trump look for in a Vice President? First, it would be helpful to him to have already chosen one while he’s been mostly trapped in New York courtroom. Also, at age 78 (Trump’s birthday was June 14th, Flag Day), voters will likely pay careful attention to the vice presidential candidates. A calming, confident, cautious, and qualified candidate is important.

Trump can also do a couple of things with his nominee. First, pick someone who will appeal to a large number of GOP and independent voters, even a few Democrats, whom he makes nervous or find objectionable and aren’t inclined to support him - to “broaden” his appeal, not unlike Ronald Reagan did in 1980 with the selection of the patrician and rival George H. W. Bush. Reagan was portrayed as a hard-charging conservative outsider. Bush was seen as a nod to the establishment, helping to soothe nervous nellies.

Geographic representation isn’t the issue it used to be, but in a close election, electoral college votes matter. Also, with the fundamental shifts going on in the electorate now, Trump can use his nominee to cement, if not accelerate, demographic trends, especially among Black and Hispanic males. An obvious target to broaden Trump’s appeal would be a woman and mom like US Rep. and Conference Chair Elise Stefanik (R-NY). Trump’s veep nominee might also get a leg up on the post-Trump GOP and the presidential nomination in 2028, but that remains to be seen. Who knows what that world may look like after four years of a second Trump presidency if it occurs?

Each has pros and cons, but only two on the list should be taken seriously: US Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) and Gov. Doug Burgum (R-ND), whom Trump has effusively praised. Let’s quickly parse each before moving on to an increasingly obvious selection. We’ll also take a campaign $100 bill and place bets on each one. All are Trump loyalists (now) and have proven their bona fides to the former president.

US Rep. Byron Donalds (R-FL)

The 45-year-old ex-finance executive is among the younger prospects, a House Freedom Caucus Member, and a highly articulate culture warrior. He’s seen as a young talent brimming with potential and a bright future, but with a tendency for verbal provocations, he is not quite ready for the crucible of a national election—a $1 bet.

Former HUD Secretary and legendary physician Dr. Ben Carson

At 72, the oldest of the prospects was a competitor to Trump in 2016, who briefly led the polls. The mild-mannered Carson, while a legitimate outsider with a superb bedtime manner and pleasant, if mild-mannered personality, is not considered a likely choice. He’s on the list because, well, The List. It’s Trump’s way of thanking and recognizing his loyalty, brand, and rags-to-riches personal story as America’s most famous pediatric neurosurgeon and noted author—another $1 bet.

US Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL)

The immediate appeal of picking the second-term senior senator from Florida is obvious. He’s Hispanic, a youthful 53, and a highly respect chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee, where most of the chamber’s smarter and wiser heads serve. Rubio, like Carson, challenged Trump in 2016 and lost, the victim of a hit job during a debate by former NJ Gov. Chris Christie that Rubio poorly responded to, along with a desperate personal attack on Trump that fell flat and worse. That’s all water under the bridge.

The problem with selecting the thoughtful and articulate Rubio is that Trump and he share the same home state of Florida (as does Donalds), which likely runs afoul of a 12th Amendment provision about the nominees for president and vice president representing the same state. An elector may only vote for one candidate from his or her state. That means if both nominees were from Florida, the state’s electoral votes - all 30 of them - would be forfeited.

This seems easily solved by Trump changing his official residency back to New York or to his Bedminster, New Jersey summer home, but either move would have major tax implications (NY and NJ are among the nation’s highest taxed states, while Florida is among the lowest). After all, in 2000, Texas George W. Bush chose Dick Cheney as his running mate, who also at the time was a Texas resident. Cheney quickly moved his official residence back to his native Wyoming. Problem solved, especially since neither Texas or Wyoming taxes income.

Reminder: the Bush-Cheney ticket won 271 electoral votes in 2000, with 270 required to win. Had Cheney not changed his residency - getting a Wyoming driver’s license, putting his Texas home of five years on the market, etc. - it’s possible the election would have fallen Congress. I’m make an $8 bet.

US Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY)

Stefanik challenged and succeeded Lynn Cheney as the fourth-ranking House GOP leadership member and chair of the Conference. I first met Stefanik when she staffed the 2012 Republican Party’s Platform Committee as Mitt Romney marched toward the GOP nomination. I had a similar role in the 1992 election.

Stefanik’s rise to fame occurred when, during a congressional hearing with Ivy University presidents, she eviscerated them for anti-semitic protests raging on their campuses. Two of the three resigned, most notably Harvard’s Claudia Gay.

Stefanik, while a Trump loyalist (not always), is seen as the least conservative member of the list. Still, she’s smart, the youngest prospect at age 39, and more likely to be a future Speaker of the House than Vice President. Still, having a young woman and mom from the Northeast with a strong record of helping recruit and elect women GOP candidates to Congress has its advantages—an $10 bet.

US Sen. JD Vance (R-OH)

Vance is better known for his book and the subsequent movie about his life (Glenn Close played his mother) than for his two years as a new US Senator. His rags-to-riches story from Middletown, Ohio, to Yale Law School is impressive, culminating in a tech and finance career and, eventually, a competitive and successful election to replace Rob Portman in the Senate. However, Vance, who was once sharply critical of Trump, has strongly supported the President and his “America First” working-class agenda. He’s also 39 years old.

Vance has emerged with an unusually high profile as a new US Senator, suggesting he has broader ambitions. He took a visible leadership role in attacking the Biden Administration’s embarrassingly tepid and tin-eared response to the train accident in East Palestine, OH. The disaster polluted this somewhat downtrodden town’s water and air supplies. Trump likes Vance, but what does he bring to the ticket besides connections to the tech industry (proving very valuable)? I’ll place $10 on Vance.

Let’s conclude with a brief outline of the two most serious prospects on “The List:” Gov. Doug Burgum (R-ND) and US Senator Tim Scott (R-SC). Each sought the presidential nomination earlier this year but eventually dropped out and enthusiastically supported Trump.

Gov. Doug Burgum (R-ND)

Burgum, the Stanford MBA who made millions by launching and selling an accounting software company to Microsoft, is 67 and finishing his second and final term as North Dakota’s governor. Burgum began the presidential race with practically no public profile and, while making a good impression during the Iowa caucuses, couldn’t break through.

Burgum has proven to be a strong Trump surrogate with a calm and appealing demeanor. His business smarts and innovative record as governor has raised eyebrows. But, North Dakota is a small state with no major market and solidly in Trump’s campaign. If Trump is looking for a successful businessman to play Bush to Trump’s Reagan, there might be a better choice. I’ll place a $15 bet on Burgum.

US Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC)

I know and like the 58-year-old Tim Scott. A lot. While his presidential bid eventually fizzled, he oozes sunny optimism and a serious legislative record on crime and other issues. His appeal is obvious: a Black man with a remarkable rags-to-riches story, including times he’s experienced discrimination in the deep South. He is among the most likable and appealing of Trump’s prospects, but he gets dinged for being “too nice” of a guy for a job that historically falls to an “attack dog.” He’s nice, but he can spar with the best of them. The long-time bachelor is soon to be married. He remains an excellent and energetic athlete.

His selection would signal that Trump is serious about appealing to the Black vote, in which he is making inroads, but his appeal is much broader. His agenda is reminiscent of the late US Rep. Jack Kemp (R-NY), the 1996 GOP vice presidential nominee, former NFL quarterback, and long-time US House leader from Buffalo, NY. I’m putting $25 on his selection.

A cautionary note. GOP candidates historically tend to poll better with Black Americans than they perform at the polls.

But here’s the latest emergent and my strong recommendation for his running mate.

Admittedly, I’m biased in favor of my home-state governor, whom I met in late 2020 at a church he helped found and before he ran a remarkable campaign to defeat a popular if smarmy former Democratic Governor, Terry McAuliffe. I’ve covered and bragged about Glenn Youngkin’s remarkable political rise and popular leadership in purplish Virginia, which hasn’t been carried by a Republican since George W. Bush narrowly carried it in 2004. Virginia used to be a reliably Republican state in presidential elections, but explosive growth in Washington, DC’s close-in government-dominated and highly-educated, immigrant-heavy northern Virginia suburbs changed that. Northern Virginia’s counties, from Loudoun (where I live) to Fairfax (the state’s largest) to Alexandria and Arlington, are largely deep blue Democratic strongholds. The rest of the state mostly leans Republican.

Youngkin shares Tim Scott’s sunny demeanor and the caution of a highly successful international business executive, a conservative agenda, and suburban appeal. He largely won on the usually Democratic education issue and strong law enforcement support. He aggressively focuses on economic development to make Virginia the best place to live, work, and raise a family.

Youngkin is prohibited from running for a second term in 2023. His popularity and Trump’s close-to-tied status in most recent polls would put Virginia and its 13 electoral votes in play for the 2024 election. Youngkin would excite establishment Republicans and get a proven, mistake-free candidate with broad appeal and a penchant for caution. He bested McAuliffe in their debates and expertly seized on the Democratic nominee’s mistakes.

Youngkin’s biggest negative? The six-foot-five-inch former Rice University basketball star is taller than Donald Trump. The six-foot-three-inch Trump cares very deeply about appearances. He won’t want to look short. Then again, George H. W. Bush was slightly taller than Ronald Reagan. Youngkin was dinged by some religious conservatives recently for signing legislation to make Virginia’s statutes consistent with the Supreme Court’s Obergefell decision on same-sex marriages, but it changed nothing.

Youngkin and his agenda contrast nicely with a hard-left yet slim Democratic majority in Virginia’s legislature and its penchant for big spending, woke schools, and higher taxes. He’s pro-life and not afraid to discuss the issue (he proposed in 2020 limit on abortions after 15 weeks, when an unborn child reportedly becomes “pain capable”). Virginia’s current law provides unlimited abortions anytime, for any reason, requiring only that a doctor be “consulted” after 26 weeks. For all practical purposes, my commonwealth is an abortion-on-demand state, and Democrats tend to keep it that way.

As I’ve posted previously, Youngkin’s execrable predecessor, Ralph Northam, bragged how even born infants could be kept “comfortable” while the doctor and mother decided to kill them or not. Northam is a pediatric neurologist by profession, and I want him nowhere near my grandchildren. Neither should you.

To be candid, Youngkin’s proposal would have minimal impact on abortions. Most occur within 6-10 weeks. But he incrementally moves the issue in the right direction, and it polls well.

When I first met Glenn Youngkin around Christmas of 2020, having just moved back to northern Virginia after 20 years in Pennsylvania, I had no idea who he was. He was amazingly accessible and personable - a natural political talent. He immediately and positively impacted this experienced, hard-bitten former campaign operative.

The GOP has a solid bench of vice presidential candidates and successors of a post-Trump era, which will emerge right after the 2024 election. In many respects, Trump can’t go wrong with most of his serious and most credible options.

Youngkin is almost the perfect choice for Trump and a worthy successor as a potential nominee in 2028. I’m betting $30 that he emerges as The Choice.

Heart, be still.