Razor Wire Economics
Democrats are counting on an improving economy towards a November showdown with Trump and the GOP. And razor wire was okay at the Capitol but not for Texas?
Polls are emerging that Americans are beginning - but just beginning - to review the economy in a more positive light. Most Americans, even those with negative views on the economy (jobs, inflation, real wage growth, housing costs, etc.) are still optimistic about their future. We’ve always been an optimistic bunch.
That’s giving Democrats hope that the economy will fade as an issue for Republicans or even rebound to benefit Joe Biden and the rest of the Democratic ticket as we slouch toward November. The economy is almost always a top issue on which voters decide.
Until it’s not. Just ask George H. W. Bush, who, despite an improving economy in 1992, was still defeated that November by Bill Clinton (with Ross Perot’s assistance).
Perhaps the economy in 1992 didn’t improve on time. One GOP pollster friend says it takes about eight months of good economic news to change perceptions, and Bush 41 didn’t have that benefit. The 2024 election is about ten months away. On the presumption things will continue to improve, from the stock market index to lower interest rates and an end to higher prices, Democrats have their fingers crossed and are doubling down on “Bidenomics.” That’s a gutsy strategy.
Some of the risks are obvious. World War III is close to breaking out in the Middle East. A third of the world’s shipping traverses the Red Sea, including a little commodity called crude oil, where terrorists are successfully disrupting traffic (except Iranian crude oil to China), sending cargo ships around Africa at considerable expense. Those costs will be passed on to you and other global consumers, costs you’ve yet to experience. The inflation genie is not quite in the bottle. Biden’s efforts to stop the attacks are commendable but timid from the same President who removed Trump’s designation of Yemen’s Houthis as a terror organization. Until he changed his mind.
The media largely ignores the challenging economic times in China, with its demographic implosion and real estate crisis (too much housing and development), and its impact on the world economy. The lazy media is now slowly beginning to pay attention to the issues affecting the economy, such as Issue One: immigration and the open southern border.
Beltway media predictably believe the improving economy is a conundrum for the GOP. Maybe, but not really. Here is some advice for Republicans, which they probably don’t need.
Cheer for the American Economy
No Republican should cheer or celebrate bad economic news; none I know are. Republicans, in general, propose and support policies that address the main drivers of economic stress, mostly wildly expanded federal spending and regulatory overreach that drive deficit spending to over $1 trillion per year and a $34 trillion and growing federal debt, never mind the government’s growing propensity to pick economic winners and losers.
A divided Congress has largely stopped adding to Biden’s $6-7 trillion in new spending programs since he took office, which increased the money supply by 40 percent without a corresponding increase in productivity. There have been no new big spending programs since the GOP won control of the House in late 2022. That’s good.
Also, inflation has decreased via the unelected Federal Reserve Board and its policies to drive down inflation by making homes and mortgage rates unaffordable for working families. How’s that working out for you? True, mortgage interest rates are coming down, but they are still well above what they were before Biden took office, just like the cost of everything else. And what’s it been like paying for home and car insurance lately? Wait until we all see those cost increases in 2024. Harvard’s $900,000 professor and ex-president, Claudine Gay, may not care, but I bet you will.
Republicans should cheer our economic resiliency, which Biden inherited. Americans’ credit cards are maxed out to keep up with Bidenflation. Republicans should continue to tout their curb on new spending and preventing tax increases from expiring 23 Trump-era Tax Cut and Jobs Act provisions by the end of 2025. Those expirations will result in higher taxes for most Americans, tax increases that Joe Biden mostly supports.
Democrats reflexively will claim that the Trump tax cuts have increased the deficit, but the evidence suggests otherwise. Federal revenues increased after the Tax Cut and Jobs Act was enacted. “But federal revenues (e.g., taxes) would have gone up more if it had not been passed,” Democrats will argue. Have fun, and good luck with the argument that more government growth is wonderful as Americans struggle to pay down their maxed-out credit cards when real wages haven’t kept up.
Plenty of Other Issues
Democrats putting all their marbles into the economy basket also ignores the issues that hurt them, such as everything but abortion and climate change. Crime, especially auto thefts, is a mixed bag, but reports of crimes by illegal immigrants capture headlines.
And the open border is playing out in interesting ways, as half of our states’ governors and attorney generals support Texas in its battle with the Department of Homeland Security to rid the border of the concertina wire placed along the Rio Grande—even the union representing the US Border Patrol.
I can’t wait to see if Biden decides, on the advice of many congressional Democrats, to nationalize the Texas National Guard to keep the border open - and what happens then. Gov. Abbott has already prepared his next move. Like most states, Texas has more than one “law enforcement agency.” Other states also have National Guard troops to share and can’t wait. Texas Rangers (not the baseball team), anyone?
Gov. Abbott has wasted no time fundraising off his confrontation with the Biden Administration. Surely, you knew that was coming. Oh, and maybe Joe Biden won’t be able to count on the Customs and Border Patrol to do his bidding.
Razor wire was good enough to keep Americans from their own US Capitol for months, deployed by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi after “J6.” But it’s a problem at the southern US border?
Americans instinctively empathize with immigrants making their way here from bad circumstances. My Nextdoor.com feed includes appeals for furniture and clothing for immigrant families who have made their way here looking for a better life, especially those fleeing political oppression in places like Afghanistan (speaking of Biden debacles). I’ve helped. But after an estimated 8-10 million border crossings and the strain on local services - including closing schools to provide emergency housing for immigrants - Americans rightfully are asking why, especially as they witness a “soft invasion” of military-age men from around the world, including China? It is undeniable that Joe Biden promised to relax, if not open, the southern border during his candidacy in 2020 in one of the Democratic primary debates.
For many, this strikes as terror attacks waiting to happen right where we live.
No, Republicans in Congress should not reflexively reject improvements at the border via legislative compromise, even if incremental, so that they can “have the issue” for the November election. That’s irresponsible. But they should also not support a bad deal, as we’ve seen emerge on Saturday. We haven’t seen the legislation yet, so we’ll reserve more comment until we do. But the facts are obvious for everyone to see. Deal or not, they’ll still have the issue while pressuring Democrats to at least stem part of the tide, an explicit admission of failure.
Oh, and watch for the thoughtless, reflexive tropes from moralizing pseudo-Christians - “Priests of Baal” - claiming that we have a responsibility to welcome the “sojourner.” Here’s a good post that puts much of that nonsense to rest, especially if you’re a Catholic prone to such guilt. Be sure to click the links—especially this one.
But Trump!
Ultimately, the Democrats will try to goad Trump into making this an election all about him. That might work. It did in 2020.
But the focus on Trump’s rhetorical and behavioral foibles will be trumped (pun intended) by comparing the records. Sure, Trump is vulnerable on the Covid issue. Still, the world was at relative peace (especially compared to now), economically prosperous with low inflation and fuel prices, and a steeply recovering economy after a harmful pandemic. And no one argues with a serious face that Biden would have done anything differently. At best.
Americans were better off four years ago. Returning to that America might look appealing, even to Chardonnay-swilling suburban women worried more than ever about being carjacked or worse.
Betting on the opposing candidate - Trump in this case - to screw up is not necessarily a bad strategy for Democrats. Still, it is bold, indeed, given their nominee’s foibles. When Biden refuses to debate this fall (presuming he’s the nominee), Americans will begin comparing the functionality of our two senior citizen candidates.
Republicans can rightfully point at Biden and say, “But Biden!” Most Americans don’t think he’s up to the job now, much less over the next four years.
Trump still has issues with suburban voters, as exposed by Nikki Haley’s success where she’s experienced it. Suburban, educated, and “upscale” Republicans and leaners still don’t like Trump. It augurs for Haley and Trump to patch things up and join his ticket, which would not be unprecedented (see: 1980 Reagan and Bush). But Trump’s team has run a very good primary campaign thus far, which will go well for the fall if the candidate doesn’t undermine their work. Trump has other running mate options that would help, including the newly-rumored former US Rep. and nearly successful 2022 New York gubernatorial candidate and former Marine Lee Zeldin.
Not that running mates ultimately matter. They cost you more than help. And you’re stuck with them if you win.
Americans will also be feted with continuing coverage of Trump’s trials, which they believe are politicized. In contrast, despite recent indictments, the Department of Justice continues to let the statute of limitations run out on First Son Hunter Biden’s crimes. Americans also have lost trust in long-standing institutions, evidenced by a decline in military enlistments.
Most Americans don’t like the direction the country is taking, like two out of three. The American dream - a well-paying job, home ownership, safe streets, good schools, and the promise of a better life for us and our children - is on life support. They will vote accordingly in November, no matter how “strong” they perceive the economy. There’s a lot more going on. Way more.
The issue is who they trust (more or less) to fix things as America transitions to a new generation of leadership in 2028. It’s a jump ball.
To be clear, both Trump and Biden could run on positive messages. Barack Obama’s political guru, David Axelrod, via his and my old friend Mike Murphy’s podcast, “Hacks on Tap,” suggests Biden frame the election as a choice between the hateful Trump bent on revenge for perceived past wrongs or himself, working to build a future through forgiving student loans and investing (that word! grab your wallet!) in clean, high-paying American high tech jobs. Don’t count on that.
Trump could sound like he did after his Iowa caucus win by casting a vision of hope and positive change. While it’s probably too much to hope Trump channels Ronald Reagan’s wildly successful sunny optimism and vision for a renewal of the American dream (“It’s Morning Again in America”), he could at least try. Americans are tired of and turned off by negative politics now personified by Joe Biden’s smearing of “MAGA Republicans” as shiny objects to cover for his own failed record and Donald Trump’s harsh comportment. Sadly, the alternatives in their parties aren’t offering much that’s different, and the media is complicit.
Sadly, fear trumps optimism these days. It doesn’t have to be that way. America’s thirst for a campaign of competing visions brimming with hope for and faith in America’s future will likely remain unquenched for four more years, facilitated by an increasingly corrupted media.
No wonder Americans don’t want to see the matchup the major parties are now foisting upon them. No wonder independent and third-party candidates and emerging movements like “No Labels” are at polling levels not seen in 32 years. Americans know they deserve better. They won’t win, but double-digit popular support is within reach for Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Cornel West, and Jill Stein, collectively if not independently, never mind “No Labels.” It’s unclear whether that benefits the candidacies of Trump or Biden since both are unpopular.
The bottom line: Republicans shouldn’t let Biden take credit for the economy no matter how much it improves between now and November. It is testimony to the resiliency of an economy he inherited and prospers despite his failed policies and incompetence.
Sure, Biden and the White House will find a few sycophantic business leaders and “economists” still sporting DEI programs and living off government tax credits, subsidies, and favored political and tax treatment. That dog won’t hunt. Kitchen table economics knows. Family credit card bills speak louder and more credibly than talking heads and television commercials.
The election’s framing may no longer be, “It’s the economy, stupid.” It may just be, “It’s America, stupid.”
Yes, I know that. I'm not that stupid! I said that to emphasize how strongly I feel that would be a disaster.
We need two or three solid terms to undermine the growing dominance of what we call the "Deep State", shorthand for administrative apparatus taking over our constitutional functions of lawmaking, and even enforcement and adjudication. It is the only way to rescue our constitutional system. A compromised compromiser is the opposite of what we need, and on top of that she would gain Trump zero votes net, if not less!
The heir-apparent thus needs to be on board with Trump's agenda.
Let me put it this way: if Trump gets bamboozled into picking Haley, like he was bamboozled by Fauci & Co, I will vote RFK. And I speak as a die hard Pro-Trumper! But he's gotta show he's learned something from his experiences with the Deep State blob.