Closing Campaign Messages
Election "Day" is 13 days away with millions of Americans having already voted early. What are they hearing, watching, and reading, and what are they focused on?
We’re finally in the final phases of the 2022 election. Campaigns, of course, start well before Labor Day, but it remains the start of the general election campaign in most states (some, like New Hampshire, have late primaries). While roughly a third of voters typically make up their minds early, more than half often don’t start paying attention or locking in their preferences before then.
That’s why I typically ignore August election polls.
Historically, September is a time for general election candidates to reintroduce themselves post-primary, followed by an “issue” phase where they discuss their stands on issues. Smart campaigns are on the phone to identify where voters stand, target their resources, and hone messages. The “comparison-contrast” phase (think attack ads) follows, usually late in the month and into October. This is also when televised debates begin to occur, if at all.
Some Democrats, such as incumbent US Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-VA), are looking for any excuse to bail out of debates given their hostile climate. But a few Republicans are also eschewing debates. Candidates who lead polls often aren’t interested in giving desperate opponents a platform.
Mid-October often turns into the “endorsement” phase when news organizations, leading influencers, interest groups, and others announce their support for candidates. Think of the Philadelphia police union endorsing Dr. Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania’s US Senate race.
Early voting, of course, has jumbled this a bit.
The last phase of the campaign is the “turnout” phase - getting your supporters to the polls. During my two decades of work in 36 campaigns, a favorite tactic was bus tours with candidates and volunteers, sometimes with surrogates. During US Senator Don Nickles’ (R-OK) 1992 reelection campaign, we dispatched busses of volunteers, often with our candidate, to rural and suburban communities in parts of the Sooner State where Republican support predominates. We wanted to ensure a high turnout.
We replicated that for now-retiring US Senator Jim Inhofe’s first successful campaign two years later.
Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin famously expanded on that tactic during his successful campaign in 2021 as he honed his message on education. He’s now duplicating it in support of candidates for Congress in northern Virginia.
I’m watching and tracking the final messages of candidates and partisan “opinion leaders” in these final days. Here’s a sample.
Nancy Pelosi: We need to change the subject from inflation
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., said Sunday that Democrats need to "change that subject" on inflation as polls show a grim midterm outcome for her party with the economy and inflation among the primary issues for voters.
Pelosi made the comment on CBS' "Face the Nation" when asked about the Democrats’ final efforts to rally voters in the run-up to Nov. 8. Host Margaret Brennan cited a CBS poll predicting Republicans will win a majority in the House with a total of 224 seats, asking Pelosi whether Democrats have a plan to shift momentum with about two weeks until Election Day.
Pelosi insisted that her party is feeling "confident" about a favorable midterm outcome, adding that she’s "very pleased" with the early voting turnout. But with the electoral impact of inflation hard to dismiss, Pelosi said it’s time for her party's midterm candidates to re-brand the Republican-dominated issue to "inspire" more Democrat voters.
"The fact is that when I hear people talk about inflation … we have to change that subject," Pelosi said. "Inflation is a global phenomenon. The European Union, the U.K., the British have higher inflation rate than we do here. The fight is not about inflation," she insisted. "It’s about the cost of living."
Governor Glenn Youngkin: “Virginia’s elections are secure”
“First of all, Virginia’s elections are secure,” Youngkin said. “I want to remind everybody, we passed three bills this year: we got rid of Zucker-bucks, we update our voter rolls every week, and we make sure mail-in ballots get assigned right back to their precinct. In Virginia, every ballot is cast on a paper ballot, it is kept. We do not have voting machines, we have counting machines - I went and certified them myself. Voters can trust the elections in Virginia. That doesn’t mean we shouldn’t go to work. We have got to continue to improve our election process and continue to improve people’s faith in our election process.”
Hi, Governor. I have one suggestion to improve elections in the Commonwealth. Allow voters, especially those inadvisably using the mail, a way to track their ballots online, as even Pennsylvania allows, along with several states like Colorado that conduct their elections primarily by mail.
Washington Post columnist Max Boot: Democracy will die.
So, democracy ends when voters support candidates progressives don’t like? It sounds like “democracy ends” when progressives don’t get their way, even when Democrats spent $46 million in GOP primaries to ensure alleged “election deniers” are nominated.
Report: The pandemic has caused the worst education crisis on record
The coronavirus pandemic is causing alarmingly high learning losses in areas like math and reading around the world, according to a new report that describes this disruption as the worst education crisis ever recorded.
Unicef, UNESCO and The World Bank partnered to study the effects of the coronavirus pandemic on school children around the world. The results were published in a new report, and researchers attributed school closures as one of the biggest factors in disrupting children’s education across the board from low-income to high-income countries.
The report details how schools were forced to quickly adapt curriculum to an online learning environment, but many times without the proper resources or training for teachers. The transition ended up disproportionately hurting marginalized students who didn’t have consistent or sufficient access to educational necessities like laptops, internet connection or caregiver support.
Globally, at least 463 million children could not be reached by digital and broadcast remote learning programs during school closures, according to the report, with 3 out of 4 unreached students coming from rural areas and/or poor households. Lower-income countries tended to have higher shares of students not reached by remote learning measures than higher-income countries.
Despite institutions’ best efforts to establish a variety of remote learning options, the report found that, “the deployment, uptake, and effectiveness of such programs has varied greatly, and in most countries, offered an inadequate substitute for in-person learning.”
ABCNews: Some leading Democrats won’t debate their “election-denying opponents”
Bucking 20 years of Arizona campaign tradition, Hobbs declined to debate her Republican opponent in the only gubernatorial debate, which was set for next week. Hobbs cited Lake's performance in a GOP primary forum as having made Arizona "the butt of late-night TV jokes."
"You can't debate a conspiracy theorist," Hobbs' campaign manager, Nicole DeMont, said at a public meeting with the debate commission last month.
But as election deniers dominate the Republican side of the statewide ballot, Hobbs is the only Democratic nominee that declined to face one on the debate stage. Barrett Marson, a Republican strategist in Arizona who isn't working with Lake, criticized that reasoning since Hobbs also skipped a Democratic primary debate with her long-shot opponent then, Marco Lopez -- "someone who's not an election denier," Marson noted.
Washington Times: Spanberger faces showdown over criminalizing parents who don’t embrace child’s transgender identity
Rep. Abigail Spanberger is under fire after campaigning with a fellow Democrat who wants criminal charges against Virginia parents who don’t support their child’s transgender identity or sexual orientation.
Ms. Spanberger, who is locked in a tough reelection bout in Virginia against Republican Yesli Vega, hit the campaign trail with state Del. Elizabeth Guzman this week. Ms. Guzman is spearheading legislation to expand Virginia’s definition of child abuse and neglect to include parents who don’t affirm their child’s gender identity or sexual orientation.
Republicans said the association with Ms. Guzman revealed Ms. Spanberger to be a “woke” radical.
“Abigail Spanberger is campaigning with woke radicals that don’t believe in parental rights and want parents jailed because Spanberger agrees with these insane policies,” said Camille Gallo, spokeswoman for the National Republican Congressional Committee.
Ms. Spanberger responded by saying she opposed the legislation.
“I don’t support this legislation, and it does not have a path forward in the General Assembly. It’s unclear how this proposed legislation intends to actually help transgender children and their families, which is what we should focus on,” she said.
Ms. Guzman promoted a recent get-out-the-vote event with Ms. Spanberger and another Virginia Democrat, Sen. Tim Kaine.
“Due to legislation in recent years, you don’t need a reason to vote early!” Ms. Guzman tweeted.
Under Ms. Guzman’s bill, parents suspected of being anti-LGBTQ with their children would be subjected to an investigation that could result in a felony or misdemeanor charge. Ms. Guzman said her bill was a way to support LGBT youth, not a way to criminalize parents.
“It’s educating parents because the law tells you the dos and don’ts. So, this law is telling you do not abuse your children because they are LGBTQ,” Ms. Guzman told WJLA in Washington.
Ms. Guzman introduced the bill in response to a directive by Gov. Glenn Youngkin, a Republican, requiring students to categorize transgender children by their biological sex when using restrooms, locker rooms and other gender-based facilities.
Early voting trends are also making news. A sample:
Southeast New Mexico Republicans surpass Democrats in early voting weeks ahead of election
Republicans in Eddy, Otero and Lincoln counties outpaced Democrats and other parties in early and absentee voting nearly three weeks before the Nov. 8 elections, according to data from the New Mexico Secretary of State’s office.
As of Monday, a total of 1,724 Republicans voted absentee or in person in Eddy County compared to 780 Democrats, per Secretary of State figures.
One hundred and fifty of voters not claiming any affiliation cast their ballots early or as absentee as of Monday, along with 12 Libertarians and nine people who stated other party affiliation in Eddy County.
Early and absentee voting across New Mexico started Oct. 11 and expanded early voting at alternative voting locations started Oct. 22, the Secretary of State website cited.
The last day to request an absentee ballot is Nov. 3 and the last day to vote early was Nov. 5.
In Lincoln County, Republicans voting early or absentee lead Democrats by nearly 200 as of Monday.
Per the Secretary of State, 442 Republicans voted early or absentee in Lincoln County compared to 242 Democrats.
Lincoln County had 112 residents without any party affiliation vote early or absentee.
Otero County had 1,580 Republicans and 1,039 vote early or absentee as of Monday, read Secretary of State figures.
More than 300 Otero County residents not claiming any political party voted early or absentee ad did with 19 Libertarians and eight stating other party affiliations, according to Secretary of State figures.
Across New Mexico, Democrats led Republicans in absentee and in person as of Monday by nearly 20,000 people.
But what are voters focused on? TIPP insights provides clues.
TIPPInsights: 16 Charts Explain Why Democrats' Midterm Prospects Are Melting Like ICE
The day of comeuppance is just a fortnight away. The writing is on the wall. Democrats are likely to take a beating from voters.
That's the price for veering off too far Left over the past 21 months.
President Biden wants Americans to believe in an alternate universe. The border is secure; the Inflation Reduction Act will actually reduce inflation; the economy is strong; the administration must get credit for reducing the deficit by $1.4 trillion last year.
Well-timed student loan waiver can't save the Democratic candidates. Draining strategic petroleum (political) reserve (SPR) can't stop the election prospects from melting like ICE.
Why do we emphasize ICE? The mnemonic succinctly captures the underlying dynamic – Immigration, Crime, and the Economy - three things that would be responsible for Democrats' disastrous performance on November 8.
Read the rest of the report here.