Another Reason for the "Red Tsunami:" White Suburban Women
Media pundits exclaimed that the Supreme Court's reversal of Roe v. Wade would send suburban women into the Democratic fold, cementing gains from 2020. Oops.
One of the reasons Donald Trump and many Republican congressional candidates lost in 2020 (especially Georgia’s US Senate races) is the defection of suburban women voters.
They’ve come back, led by concerns over the rising cost of living, parental control (education, etc.), and crime.
The Wall Street Journal’s recent national survey, conducted October 22-26 of registered versus “likely” voters, much of that over a weekend - both of which help surveys skew Democratic - didn’t receive much attention. It should have. Republican and Democratic pollsters conducted it.
From a Wall Street Journal email, an “interview” with White House correspondent Catherine Lucey:
Three Questions for WSJ's Catherine Lucey
WSJ: Why are suburban white women such a closely watched group of voters in the midterm elections?
Catherine Lucey: This has been a closely watched group for several reasons. White suburban women make up 20% of the electorate and really helped power Democratic victories in House races in 2018, when the party gained more than 40 seats and took control of the House. Also, Democrats have been hopeful that abortion would motivate this group in the midterms, following the Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v. Wade in June, which ended the constitutional right to abortion and returned the issue to the states.
THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
WSJ: What have these voters said about their political leanings over the course of the campaign?
Catherine Lucey: The latest Wall Street Journal poll shows a clear shift with this group since our last poll in August. The new survey found that they favor Republicans in congressional races by 15 percentage points. In the Journal’s August poll, white suburban women favored Democrats by 12 points. And that seems to be because these women are turning their attention to inflation and the economy over abortion, and they think Republicans do a better job on those issues.
These voters’ views of the economy had grown substantially more pessimistic from August to October, with 54% of them saying they think the U.S. is already in a recession and 74% saying the economy is headed in the wrong direction in October, compared with 43% and 59%, respectively, in the August poll.
“We’re talking about a collapse, if you will, in that group on the perceptions of the economy.”
— Republican pollster Tony Fabrizio, on the changing views of white suburban women from August to October. Mr. Fabrizio conducted the WSJ poll with Democratic pollster John Anzalone
WSJ: Are there any signals that President Biden should be concerned about in what white suburban women said in the survey?
Catherine Lucey: Definitely. His approval rating has dropped among white suburban women, with 38% approving and 60% disapproving of his job performance. In August, 51% approved and 48% disapproved.
He also is now losing among this group in a hypothetical 2024 matchup with former President Donald Trump. In this poll, 41% of white suburban women said they would vote for Mr. Biden and 52% for Mr. Trump. In August, 55% said Mr. Biden and 39% Mr. Trump.
Read Lucey’s full article.
Catherine Lucey is a reporter in The Wall Street Journal’s Washington bureau. You can follow her on Twitter here and read her articles here.
Recommended Reading: