And They're Off - Part II
It's still early in the contest, but a first Iowa skirmish among a few of the GOP candidates produced winning and losing moments. The winnowing has begun.
It’s been six weeks since I launched Part I of our series on the 2024 presidential campaign. I’m sure you remember it. I shared perspectives on polling (to be ignored now), early primaries (taken with grains of salt), and the historical lessons of past elections that few seem to remember, including the tenuous, often vaporous leads of early frontrunners. However brief, you may remember recent former frontrunners like Rudy Guiliani, Scott Walker, Ben Carson, and Jeb! Bush, among others.
Presidents all, in their own imaginations.
I boldly predicted that neither Joe Biden nor, separately, Donald Trump would be their party’s standard bearer come nominating convention time a year from now. I’m a clear minority on the Trump prediction, but no matter. Nothing has been said or done to dissuade me otherwise. I have yet to find a credible poll (I could stop there) that suggests a groundswell for a rematch of 2020. It’s just the opposite. Early coronations of Trump, I think, are premature and wishful thinking by both his ardent “Only Trump” supporters and Democrats.
But a lot has happened since, including the unmistakable sounds of the political foundations cracking under and around Biden’s shuffling and stumbling feet. Trump, not so much, but it’s entertaining to watch him play whack-a-mole with anyone, even his former White House press secretary and Iowa’s wildly popular conservative Governor, Kim Reynolds, who dares stay neutral in the Hawkeye State’s first-in-the-nation caucuses come January 2024.
Loyalty continues to be a one-way street for Trump, and it’s not aging well.
Your intrepid reporter is looking forward to his first-ever visit to the Iowa State Fair on August 10-20. I won’t be there all ten days, but a day or two ought to do. I fully expect to time my visit when many of the dozen GOP presidential candidates try to avoid being photographed eating corn dogs, fried butter sticks, or dozens of other foods on a stick. Perhaps I will get to meet one or two and ask questions. And there will be photos. But not one like this, I hope.
Since that last post, other candidates have jumped into the GOP race. They include former West Texas GOP Congressman, ex-CIA agent Will Hurd, and former North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum. It’s okay if you forget both their names. Neither will be on stage for the first debate and likely won’t make the Iowa caucuses. Burgum, maybe, because he has personal money and hails from a fellow farm state. Burgum, a wealthy tech executive, will give you $20 if you contribute a dollar to his campaign. Ex-spooks like Hurd likely won’t do well in early GOP primary contests, given growing GOP voter antipathy for deep-state aficionados.
And don’t forget about Ryan Binkley and Perry Johnson.
Who are they, you ask? Just two more little-known candidates that have interesting backgrounds - Binkley, a hedge fund manager and pastor from Texas; Johnson, a Michigan business who was kicked off the 2022 Michigan gubernatorial primary ballot for thousands of fraudulent signatures on his nominating petitions - and the kinds of candidates who will get even less news coverage when they drop out than when they jumped in. You might be surprised how many such candidates file with the FEC, then disappear. Everybody has an ego.
I won’t waste your time talking about every one of the candidates, but let’s focus on what I consider “defining moments.” Borrowing from baseball, let’s remember that we’re still in the throes of “spring training,” with candidates staffing up, working on their swings and pitches, etc., with the first “skirmish” happening just this past week in Iowa at the Family Leader Summit and broadcast by TheBlazeTV. It’s run by Iowa’s leading GOP evangelical political leader, Bob Vander Plaats. It’s a “must attend” if you are serious about winning the Iowa caucuses.
RealClearPolitics.com has posted the entire 8-hour summit, complete with commentary by Glenn Beck and separate 30-minute videos of every candidate’s interview. I watched them so you don’t have to.
Pay attention to Vander Plaats. He is a major player in GOP primary politics and a growing leader in the political civility movement. Seriously.
Donald Trump chose not to attend. We’ll see if it matters, but I think it was a mistake.
And that’s not the only Iowa mistake Trump has made recently. Despite incessant wooing by fellow Gov. Ron DeSantis, I’ve already mentioned Gov. Reynold’s refusal to endorse Trump, earning an attack from the early frontrunner. Just because you don’t need someone’s endorsement (Vander Plaats) doesn’t mean it’s wise or without consequence to blow off his major event attended by the state’s evangelical shock troops or attack his friend, the Governor who just signed a major pro-life law.
If Republicans are smart, they can spin the six-week abortion ban with little difficulty. I explain how here.
Maybe Trump still carries grudges (he’s famous for that) because he lost the 2016 Iowa caucus to US Sen. Ted Cruz after leading in polls leading up to the caucuses. Iowa’s GOP caucus is tricky to poll, with over 680,000 registered Republicans and 125,000 or so caucusgoers.
But as Iowa radio talker Steve Deace noted at the last such summit eight ago, the takeaway was that Gov. Bobby Jindal (R-LA) had a “breakout” moment, and Trump was “finished.” It was here eight years ago Trump said 2008 nominee John McCain, a Vietnam POW, wasn’t a hero. “He’s not a war hero. He’s a war hero because he was captured. I like people who weren’t captured.” We saw how that played out.
It was not a debate but a series of on-stage interviews before a large audience featuring former Fox News host Tucker Carlson. Each candidate was interviewed for about 30 minutes. Six candidates participated in this order: Sen. Tim Scott, former Gov. Asa Hutchinson, former Vice President Mike Pence, former Gov. Nikki Haley, and Gov. Ron DeSantis.
Other candidates either weren’t invited or chose not to attend. Former Gov. Chris Christie, for example, seems focused on where he announced his candidacy, New Hampshire. Carlson’s questions were pointed and probing but courteously presented and not argumentative. Given the audience, Carlson focused on cultural issues but not exclusively, including Ukraine and immigration. He let the candidates talk with minimal interruptions so long as they stayed on point. All did well, some more than others.
Because his interviews are as much about him as the candidates, he diminishes his value as an interrogator, but the interviews are still insightful and entertaining. My friend Hugh Hewitt is a lot better at this.
A couple of moments caught my eye. Senator Tim Scott moved constantly and connected with the audience with solid faith-based messages, a genial personality, and a slow, serious, and confident rendition of international and domestic policies. He is one to watch in Iowa, and a top-three finish here in the Iowa caucuses would not surprise me. Neither would a win. I really like Tim Scott and personally know him best of the candidates.
Gov. Hutchinson was asked how many Covid vaccines he’s had. Wincing, he asked Carlson how many he had. “None,” Tucker quickly responded to applause. That wasn’t a wise retort by lawyer and former state Attorney General Hutchinson, who also seemed irritated by Carlson’s opening question about legislation he vetoed in Arkansas to ban child transgender surgery. His shining moment was in dealing with Mexican cartels as a former Administrator of the Drug Enforcement Administration. He tried but did not connect with the audience and put in the lowest-ranked performance. In my humble opinion, he doesn’t make it to the Iowa caucus.
He also doesn’t make it on the debate stage in Milwaukee on August 23rd. Too bad, because he’s a smart and serious candidate, but he’s better suited to be Secretary of Homeland Security in the next GOP Administration. Then again, I’d rather have the tough-minded, blunt-spoken, no-nonsense former Attorney General of Virginia, Ken Cuccinelli, in that role. Sorry, Governor Asa.
With Vice President Pence, Tucker focused extensively on January 6th and Ukraine, especially religious freedom there. Pence attracted a few boos for his military support for Ukraine and expressed irritation over Tucker’s pressing over religious freedom (lack thereof) in Ukraine. A few wags on Twitter wrongly suggested a gaffe by Pence when in response to a Tucker monologue about decaying American cities in the face of massive Ukrainian financial and military support, he said, “That’s not my concern.” Twice. Pence spoke to the need for a President to be able to address both issues. No gaffe there, but not a good look.
The profoundly faith-based Pence should resonate in Iowa, but he was the only candidate noticeably booed on stage. His candidacy reminds me of former Vice President Dan Quayle’s in 2000, which I supported. We saw how that worked out. Pence did not connect well with Carlson or the audience. Too bad, because I like him very much.
Tucker clearly doesn’t like electronic voting machines, beginning his question to former Gov. Haley on whether she thought Joe Biden actually won 81 million votes - 15 million more than Barack Obama in 2008. Haley agreed with his support of paper balloting. Haley handled all of Carlson’s questions with confidence and knowledge. She is an impressive candidate, and like DeSantis, focuses on her record as governor and desire to restore federalism - moving solutions to the states, whether on health care or education. She solidifies her place as a likely running mate if fellow South Carolinian Tim Scott isn’t the nominee (nominees from the same state forfeit the electoral votes under the Constitution, although that can be fixed and may be disputed).
And to be clear, Haley would make a terrific running mate. Tough as nails, sharp as a tack, articulate. As a Vice President, she might drive the President crazy. But she would win any Vice Presidential debate, especially with the vapid Kamala Harris.
For the record, Canada’s 20 million or so voters also use paper, not electronic devices, and have high confidence in their elections. While Canada’s parliamentary system of government, lack of support for national defense, and failed health care system are bad examples, their immigration, food safety, and voting systems are worth studying. Despite their turgid Prime Minister, it’s not all bad up north.
Vivek Ramaswamy remains the most unusual and provocative of the GOP candidates. Age 37, he’s the first and only millennial in the GOP contest. He attributed January 6th to “censorship of information in this country,” including the media suppression of the Hunter Biden laptop story. It resonates. He is climbing in the polls and beginning to attract tens of thousands of small donors. Carlson connected with him and seemed to have found him the most interesting of the candidates. He exuded authenticity and proved to be the best storyteller on stage. Interestingly, Tucker never asked Ramaswamy any questions on the one issue he and Tucker are in lockstep - Ukraine.
For the record, Ramaswamy wants to force a negotiated settlement in Ukraine with Russia which he thinks will cause Russia and China to decouple. Frankly, that’s nuts. This is why you don’t want a political novice as President. On-the-job training is not a good idea here. Still, he’ll be on the debate stage on August 23rd. He already has over 40,000 individual contributors. He should not be underestimated.
It will be interesting to see how the practicing Hindu, who also might be the wealthiest person in the race, connects with Iowa’s large evangelical Christian community. He’s done it via his fascinating podcasts referencing “shared values.”
By most measures, Ron DeSantis had the highest hurdle to clear and did. Many pundits gave him the clear win. He’s the master of the segue; he converted smoothly from a question about Ukraine to the southern border. He’s had a rough month simply for not meeting meaningless poll expectations. His fundraising is solid, his organization the strongest, but his “look at my record in Florida” needs a “morning in America” upgrade. If he finds and articulates a raison d'être, a vision that resonates, he may recover just as John McCain did in 2008. His mastery of issues, competence, and leadership of Florida is impressive, and he’s got better retail political skills than he is given credit for. Via RealClearPolitics.Com:
The GOP nominee in 2008 once trailed Rudy Guiliani, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, and Fred Thompson. While the financial crisis that year, Bush fatigue, the Iraq War hangover, and the media’s swooning over Barack Obama prevented a McCain presidency; this is about the GOP primary.
This is your reminder that we are still in Spring Training. The first “contest” isn’t until the first honest primary debate in Milwaukee on August 23rd, and we’ll see if Donald Trump makes another mistake by failing to show up. He’s probably counting on the stage to focus their guns on Ron DeSantis instead of him in absentia. Here’s what will happen: Chris Christie will attack every candidate for not attacking Trump and aim all his artillery at the former President, who will respond with fat jokes on Truth Social. Not a good look.
Part III of this series will deal with the interesting third-party dynamics of Princeton Professor and Bernie Sanders supporter Dr. Cornel West’s emerging Green Party candidacy and the intriguing “No Labels” strategy to win places on every state ballot. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is a Democratic version of “InfoWars” Alex Jones. Then there’s Oprah’s one-time guru, Marianne Williamson, but they still combine for nearly 40 percent of the national Democratic primary vote. And is Michelle Obama lurking in the wings?
That’s all you need to know about the Democratic Party. And you think it’s the Republicans who are a mess? No wonder America’s most failed Governor, Gavin Newsom, is chomping to run. And then there is Vice President Kamala Harris, who just discovered what AI means. If only she had some. A heartbeat away. Mon Dieu.
Real winners, you got there, Democrats. People notice.
Fundamental things are afoot. Part III tomorrow, all focused on the Democrats and interesting third-party developments.