A Tsunami Isn't "Coming." It's Here.
Local elections this week in Wisconsin and Oklahoma, combined with voter registration data in Pennsylvania and North Carolina no longer "predict" a political tsunami in November. It's already here.
It’s probably unfair, even inaccurate, to describe current political trends in the US as a “tsunami” unless, of course, you're a self-proclaimed "progressive" Democrat. Tsunamis are large and highly destructive ocean waves, often caused by underwater earthquakes or volcanic disruptions. Nobody asks for nor wants to experience one, perhaps unless you're the actual tsunami. Politically speaking, of course.
But in the minds of many Americans, the coming tsunami isn’t destructive at all, despite media attempts to portray it as such. It’s restorative. And there is plenty of evidence that Democrats asked for it, starting with the consequences of an open southern border, rising crime rates amidst soft-on-crime and defund-the-police strategies, weakness abroad, lingering COVID mandates, teacher unions prioritized over students, and raging inflation at home.
Except the tsunami is underway. There’s no stopping it now.
Elections and voter registration trends in places like Pennsylvania and North Carolina - which have open gubernatorial and US Senate races this fall - portend a large political realignment in Congress and local and judicial races. Talk about “climate change.”
Republicans are registering formerly Democratic voters at four times the rate that Democrats are making the reverse conversion in the battleground state of Pennsylvania, a warning sign for Democrats as they try to keep control of the U.S. Congress.
The Republican gains in Pennsylvania, home to a critical U.S. Senate race, follow a pattern seen in other states that could have competitive contests in November's elections, as high levels of disapproval with President Joe Biden's handling of his job are helping narrow the long-held advantage held by Democrats in numbers of registered voters. . .
In North Carolina, where a tight Senate race is expected due to the retirement of Republican Senator Richard Burr, Republicans so far this year have picked up three Democratic converts for every voter that Democrats have poached, according to state election board data. Throughout 2021, the Republican advantage was about half that.
In Florida and Nevada, the numbers of registered Republicans rose in the first few months of the year while the ranks of Democrats declined modestly.
Meanwhile, as reported by the conservative website uncoverdc.com, several local elections saw seats flip from Democratic to Republican. Even in so-called “nonpartisan” local races, such as Norman, Oklahoma’s runoff mayoral election, policies associated with Democrats - like defunding the police - resulted in upsets. Norman is home to the University of Oklahoma, the Sooner State’s third-largest city with a population of about 128,000, and one of more Democratic-friendly areas there. It is the original hometown of US Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), but don’t blame them for that. Uncoverdc.com:
…former Norman Safety Manager Larry Heikkila “won the Norman mayoral seat in the Tuesday night runoff election over incumbent Breea Clark.” According to unofficial results, he won over 53 percent of the vote. In the Feb. 8 election, he received about 36 percent of the votes, with Clark receiving 32 percent. The win is significant because it represents a sea of change in politics for the city because of calls to defund the police amid rising crime rates. Two years ago, Democrats controlled city council seats and the mayor’s office. Now the democrats hold a “small majority” and lost the mayoral seat. Heikkila says he is not a “career politician.”
School board seats also flipped. Again, uncoverdc.com:
In Springfield, MO., two anti-CRT (critical race theory) candidates unseated incumbents. Kelli Byrne and Steve Mikoski were both opposed by the teacher’s union and the local chamber of commerce. Two conservatives won school board seats in the Rockwood school district, St. Louis County’s largest public school system serving over 22,000 students. Izzy Imig and Jessica Laurent Clark won with support from conservative groups like Moms for Liberty.
Katie Lyczak also won a seat in the Wentzville school district. The district is West of St. Louis and serves about 17,000 students. The Lee’s Summit Missouri school board also racked up two conservative seats. “Anti-CRT moms” Heather Eslick and Jennifer Foley won seats.
And a judicial race in Wisconsin joined the fun. As reported by the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel:
With support from free-spending conservative groups and endorsements from major Republicans, Waukesha County Judge Maria Lazar easily defeated incumbent Judge Lori Kornblum for a seat on the Court of Appeals for District II.
Kornblum, 65, a former Milwaukee County prosecutor living in Mequon, was appointed to the Waukesha-based seat last year and began work there in January. Lazar, 58, of Brookfield, had announced last year she would seek the job via election. She was elected to the circuit court in 2015, after five years at the state Department of Justice and 20 years in private practice.
Lazar took 158,290 votes, to Kornblum's 131,863, good for a 55% to 45% margin of victory, according to complete unofficial results.
Lazar's win was the second time in two years a conservative-backed challenger defeated an incumbent appellate judge appointed by Gov. Tony Evers, a Democrat. Last year, Shelley Grogan, a law clerk to conservative Supreme Court Justice Rebecca Bradley, beat Jeffrey Davis, who represented corporate clients at a major law firm and had served on the Court of Appeals for nearly two years.
Southeast Wisconsin - usually reliably or leaning Democratic territory - may be the week's story. Republicans flipped County Executive posts in Democratic Portage and, for the first time, Kenosha County. And more.
Of course, the tsunami became evident last November in Virginia, with the GOP wins of the state’s top three elected officials - Governor Glenn Youngkin, Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle Sears, and Attorney General Jason Miyares - along with capturing a majority in the House of Delegates.
The tsunami shows no sign of abating. In fact, it appears to be growing.
Climb aboard, hoist the sail, catch the wind, and enjoy the ride.