Will November’s Political Tsanami Hit Washington’s Virginia Suburbs?
Highly unlikely, but an amazing GOP primary contest is underway in one of America’s bluest congressional districts, Virginia’s Eight District. It tells us a lot about our current political environment
Working with many expert national political prognosticators over the years - and having spent time with about 35 congressional and US Senate campaigns in 25 states - my eyes are constantly peeled for signs and wonders of trends that portend results, including upset victories. Conventional wisdom suggests a GOP tsunami this Fall.
Past election trends are the first place these soothsayers look. Redistricting of congressional seats every 10 years is another as it occurs, as with elections this year. Public and private polling, of course, although their track record has stumbled over much of the past decade. Party registration data, especially in key states like Pennsylvania. There is the issue of “open seats,” such as where incumbents retire or run for other offices, creating opportunities for the Other Party.
Then there is a couple more - candidate recruitment (candidate quality matters) and political party activity at the local level, including competitive primaries.
My wife and I relocated several months ago from trending-blue Delaware County, Pennsylvania, in the deeply Democratic Philadelphia suburbs to even bluer Arlington County, Virginia, just outside of Washington, DC. My former congressional district, Pennsylvania’s Fifth, was classified as D +13 by friend and political analyst Charlie Cook (the Cook Political Report). That means a Democrat, all things being equal, starts off with a 13-point advantage over a GOP challenger.
Virginia’s Eighth Congressional district, where I now live, is a D +21 district. For a Republican to win here, an incumbent Democrat, former auto dealer and Virginia Lt. Gov. Don Beyer (in this case, means the GOP would have to win about 300 or more other congressional seats).
Or, as the late legendary Louisiana Governor, Edwin Edwards, once quipped about his own election prospects in 1983, "The only way I can lose this election is if I'm caught in bed with either a dead girl or a live boy.” Some forty years ago - I lived here then - much of this current district was represented by a Republican, Stan Parris. Demographics and political leanings here have shifted dramatically. Since 2004, neither Beyer nor his colorful predecessor, Jim Moran, have amassed less than 60 percent of the vote (Beyer has won his last two elections with more than 75 percent of the vote).
It’s an interesting district, home to Arlington National Cemetery and, by definition, Arlington House, Robert E. Lee’s home as he made his fateful decision to leave the US Army and, eventually, lead the Confederate Army. It is also home to the Pentagon and scores of other federal agencies, offices and government employees, memorials, and historic venues, including George Washington’s Mount Vernon. It may be the most visited congressional district in the United States. It is also one of its wealthiest, with a median income well into the six figures.
So it may surprise you that Rep. Beyer awaits May 21st to find out which one of 5 Republicans are actively vying to challenge him again this November. It is a diverse and impressive lot that includes an Afghan war and 27-year military veteran, an economist for two federal cabinet agencies, a registered nurse and South Korean immigrant, an engineer and Ukraine immigrant, and a business woman and nonprofit community activist and daughter of missionaries. Two men, three women, two master degrees.
All are running aggressive conservative campaigns, raising money, and gaining national endorsements. And they all think they can win. It certainly says something about not only the political climate, but the vibrancy of the GOP even in this deep blue enclave.
No, they haven’t raised a lot of money. No, the National Republican Congressional Committee doesn’t have this district on any “target” list; no party resources are flowing here. But if candidates of this caliber are running aggressive (if lean) campaigns here, imagine what is happening elsewhere, especially in more competitive districts.
I have no idea which candidate is favored to emerge from the May 21 “convention” Republicans are holding, and which I’m registered to attend. Jeff Jordan, the military veteran, is making his second run as the nominee in 2020. Karina Lipsman, the Ukrainian immigrant and engineer, appears to have raised the most money. Both are touting endorsements, as are others, local and national. They obviously think this nomination is one worth earning.
Just one more indication that a tsunami is coming. It may not reach this district, but it may come closer than many think.