You're Stuck with Joe.
Panic has broken out among Democrats concerning Joe Biden. He says he's not dropping out. What's likely to happen, and can he be forced out?
If you missed Thursday’s earliest-ever general election presidential debate, seen by 51 million Americans, you missed a few things.
First, this was the worst performance by a presidential candidate since the first televised debate between the party nominees on September 26, 1960. Second, it was the most consequential election debate since Ronald Reagan and Jimmy Carter just days before the 1980 general election. Yes, those are subjective judgments. Am I wrong?
Side note: the first truly televised presidential debate occurred four years earlier but involved surrogates: former first lady Eleanor Roosevelt for Democratic nominee Adlai Stevenson and US Sen. Margaret Chase Smith (R-ME) for President Dwight Eisenhower - two women. I wonder how a debate of surrogates for this year’s presidential contest might work out.
I wouldn’t be surprised if the Biden campaign proposed it for September. After all, there’s precedent. Maybe that’s what the vice presidential debate will be for if it happens.
Individual debates rarely have much impact, and when they do, subsequent debates have helped stumblers overcome. As of late, most incumbent presidents seem to do poorly in their first debates. Barack Obama admits as much about his against Mitt Romney in 2012. With a despicable if unethical assist from former CNN reporter Candy Crowly, he did much better in the second one. Ronald Reagan didn’t do very well during his first in 1984 but recovered nicely for round two with challenger and former Vice President Walter Mondale (D-MN). Maybe Joe Biden will rebound in his September debate, likely to include independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
With his constant interruptions, Donald Trump was infans terribilis in his first 2020 debate with Joe Biden and never truly recovered even from a better performance in the second one.
As many Democrats have said, Biden had just one job - to show that he was up to the job, physically and mentally. He more than failed to clear that very low hurdle. The talk among panic-stricken Democratic talking heads is whether they can replace Biden or how to spin it if he stays in.
The latter “spin” is that it was just one debate, and look at how well he did (with a teleprompter) at a subsequent North Carolina rally! We’ll see about that if he shows up for the second debate.
Some see a conspiracy theory involving Governor Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI), given the unusually early date for the first debate. They claim he was set up to fail, even using the term “soft coup.” Hard pass on that nonsense.
Trump successfully focused the debate on Biden and his record, whose ultimate strategy was the opposite—to focus on Trump. Oops. The meltdown on the broadcast media outlets that were friendliest to Biden and Democrats, CNN and MSNBC, was a site to behold. Talking heads could no longer gaslight and flash shiny objects, like blaming “deep fakes” for Biden’s rapid mental and physical decline over the past few years. They had to embrace reality.
So many in the media, starting with MSNBC’s execrable former GOP Congressman, Joe Scarborough, have been caught gaslighting or even lying about Biden’s mental and physical acuity. You know who they are.
When Joe Scarborough left the GOP, the average IQ of both parties increased by 10 points.
Wall Street Journal: “House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, a New York Democrat who attended (a recent meeting), said Biden was ‘incredibly strong, forceful and decisive.’”
The Hill: “Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.), the co-chair of the Biden campaign, acknowledged in an interview that President Biden, who is 81 years old, has “diminished energy” compared to when he was a younger man but insisted the president shows no “mental feebleness” and remains “sharp and commanding.”
NBC News: “The most difficult part about a meeting with President Biden is preparing for it because he is sharp, intensely probing and detail-oriented and focused,” (Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro) Mayorkas said, “Meet the Press.”
Comparing Biden to Mayorkas, this may be true.
Here’s the winner, again courtesy of NBC News and Meet the Press from former New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu:
Mitch Landrieu, a former senior adviser to Biden who is now a national co-chair of his re-election campaign, told NBC News' “Meet the Press” that “this kind of sense that he’s not ready for this job is just a bucket of B.S. It’s so deep [that] your boots will get stuck under.”
Landrieu added that as a longtime adviser to Biden, he can testify to his mental acuity.
“I’ve been knowing him for 30 years. I have met with him personally. I’ve met with him with two people, five people, 10 people. I have been on trips with him, crisscrossing the country, rebuilding America based on this incredible infrastructure bill that was passed. And I’m telling you, this guy is tough. He’s smart. He’s on his game,” Landrieu said.
Let’s get one thing out of the way. There’s almost no way they can replace Biden on the ballot for political reasons, even with a voluntary withdrawal, which isn’t happening. First, forget about replacing Biden involuntarily. That would take at least two-thirds of the Democratic National Committee’s very woke and progressive 200 members to suspend the convention’s rules at least 30 days out from the convention. Never mind that there are plans to officially nominate Biden and Harris remotely before the convention. Remember that the whole process is chaired by Biden loyalist and failed US Senate candidate Jaime Harrison (D-SC). Fugettaboutit.
Of course, there are provisions to replace a candidate if he or she dies.
Even Biden’s voluntary withdrawal has problems. While about 31 states appear to permit ballot changes, other states’ deadlines are coming up quickly or have passed, including Nevada last Friday. Wisconsin, another swing state, permits ballot changes only for the death of a nominee. Other states would face legal challenges.
And then there is the issue of money. The official Biden-Harris campaign committee holds a reported $125 million cash on hand. It can’t easily be transferred to another committee unless Kamala Harris’s name remains on it, and even then, it might be suspect. The Federal Election Commission would ultimately decide. At a minimum, they would need written or digital affirmation by any contributor of any transfer from Biden-Harris to its “successor.” Never mind issues with ongoing expenditures to phase down the former committee. Very complicated.
And that’s another problem. There’s no evidence that Harris would do any better against Trump than Biden, probably worse. The same is true for former First Lady Michelle Obama, who trailed Trump in an April survey by the Washington Times. I know she’s every conservative’s boogey-woman, but please get over it. How many times does she have to say no? She is nowhere to be seen next to Barack Obama in his many political appearances in recent months.
Telling Democratic leaders to persuade Biden to drop out seems unlikely or unlikely to succeed. And it sounds like the family is all in—especially the smartest man Joe Biden knows, his convicted felon son, Hunter. That's unsurprising given that Hunter and Joe’s brothers, Jim and Frank, have made millions trading off the President’s name and previous office. I doubt they want to leave any money on the table.
And Donald Trump may also have been onto something when he asserted, after being called a “convicted felon,” that Biden himself could be convicted of crimes after leaving office, especially after this blockbuster story. Do you refinance your home this often? If so, you’re probably involved in money laundering, for which ample evidence exists elsewhere involving the Biden family.
Barring the unforeseen, Joe Biden will be on the ballot this November despite his descent from infirmity to incoherence and incapacity. He appears a candidate for the 25th Amendment, but that’s not happening despite his frailty being an obvious national security issue, if not a threat. It would take another shoe to fall, a very big one, to prompt that. We’re talking Weekend at Bernie’s kind of stuff.
And we haven’t even talked about the “down ballot” implications of Biden’s performance. From Axios on Sunday:
What we're hearing: One swing-district House Democrat, speaking on the condition of anonymity, described frantic efforts to avoid a visit from the president or even First Lady Jill Biden.
"I don't ever want to see him here," the lawmaker said of Biden, adding that "every single donor — and I'm only calling major donors — is furious and wants him to step aside."
A senior House Democrat, also speaking on the condition of anonymity, relayed discussions with swing-district members who are "freaking out" about Biden's impact on their races.
More about this in a subsequent post. Suffice it to say the over/under on invitations for Biden to campaign with vulnerable Democratic Senate and House incumbents is now zero. If I were US Senate challenger candidates Dave McCormick (PA), Tim Sheehy (MT), Bernie Moreno (OH), Curtis Bashaw (NJ), or Hung Cao (VA), I’d offer to pay for Biden to campaign in their states for their opponents. I’m sure Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) will.
If I were still a news reporter, I would ask every Democratic incumbent or candidate on the ballot, “Are you inviting Joe Biden, Jill Biden, or Kamala Harris to campaign publicly with you in your state? If they offered, would you accept or decline, and why or why not?”
Isn’t Biden’s decline over the past five years obvious? Watch this clip from a Democratic primary debate in 2019 and the one last week. You can’t blame the difference on Biden having a “cold” in 2024. That’s malarky.
Pray for the President. Pray for the country.
I think your logic here is impeccable.